The question of what players to keep for the up coming season is a burning question for many players heading into the brand new season. Most people will tell you that you should keep the best player in a shallow position, the “five-tool” player, the someone who has performed year after year. Most will also tell you to not keep pitching unless you have Johan Santana or Chris Carpenter. But what if you have three stud players and can only keep two? Let’s say you are in a 2-player keeper league and have the following players on your roster:

Chase Utley
Carlos Beltran
Alex Rodriguez

This is a very real situation. Last year ARod was a top pick, and Utley and Beltran were able to be acquired later in the draft. This year, however, they are all worthy of a first round pick. So which player do you let go into the draft for someone else to take? Lets take a look at some of the stats:

Carlos Beltran OPS-.982 ISO-.319 BABIP-.268 BB/K-.960 HR/AB-.080
Alex Rodriguez OPS-.915 ISO-.233 BABIP-.329 BB/K-.647 HR/AB-.061
Chase Utley OPS-.906 ISO-.218 BABIP-.346 BB/K-.477 HR/AB-.049

According to the stats, one clearcut answer for a keeper is Carlos Beltran. He leads in 4 of the 5 categories, including a large margin in ISO (Isolated Slugging Output). ISO shows that of Beltran’s 140 hits last year, 31.9% of them went for extra bases. His BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) is low, but imagine if he picks that up to .300 this year. Even if he marginally improves his numbers at home his production will surpass the other two. However, there are several other solid players that can be drafted to replace him.

The other two players are a toss up. ARod has been a fantasy stud for years, and Utley is the fantasy stud at second base. Both are top players at their position. They both have a great batting lineup around them and should rack up a ton of run and RBI totals. Both should also get 10-20 steals easily. To decide between the two one main question needs to be answered. Are you building your team for this year, or future years? If you want to win this year, take ARod. If you want to win this year and over the next few years, take Utley.

My suggestion would be to keep ARod and Utley. There is plenty of available depth at the OF position this year. Keep these two and draft Vernon Wells, Vlad, Grady Sizemore, or even Bobby Abreu later in the draft. Beltran and Utley are younger, but ARod and Utley will produce more this year without significantly sacrificing the next couple of years.