There was a discussion of the MLB Radio Fans Yahoo group the other day that involved this question: Which one of these three pitchers would you choose in this year’s draft, Phillip Hughes, Homer Bailey, or Mike Pelfrey. So I decided to take a look at some projections that I have, and see what conclusion I come to.

Bailey comes with the greatest amount of noise relating to his abilities, but is not slated to be in the majors until mid 2007.  He also has the best opportunity for a rotation spot.  Hughes is a possible fifth starter, but may be in triple-A to start the year. With the recent signing of Chan Ho Park, Pelfrey may also start the year in Triple-A. He is the only one of the three that pitched in the majors last year.

Looking at their projections, each pitcher should throw somewhere between 100 and 150 innings. Their ERA should be around 4.00 to 4.50 with K/9 rates of 6-7. Hughes is the one that should give you 2 strikeouts for every walk. Bailey will give up about 1.04 HR/9, but possibly have a strikeout rate of 8.25 per nine. Pelfrey is not as flashy as the other two, but is more consistent across the board. So where is the difference? It has to do with the team that will be around them and opportunity. Hughes will have the Yankee defense (and offense) and the 18th ranked ball park. Bailey will have the Reds shaky defense and the 2nd most offensive productive ballpark. Pelfrey will have the most pitcher friendly park of the three, and a decent defense.

Basically what this boils down to is preference. All three should pan out to be great pitchers in the near future. I personally think that Hughes will be the best of the three, and provide the best fantasy value over the long run. With that being said, I would select Homer Bailey for two reasons: Great minor league stats with a sick strikeout rate, and no pitchers blocking his way to the majors. Other then Arroyo and Harang the Reds have nothing, and so Bailey will be a great addition during the year.