Group B Pitchers
Feb 24th, 2007 by winabango
First of all, I would like to say thank you to all the people who downloaded my Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report spreadsheet. Today I would like to take a look at the Group B pitchers, because I think there is one value pick among them, and two pitchers that should be in group B. Here is the current ranking of group B pitchers based upon average draft position:
- Chris Carpenter - Ave Pick = 26.93 Rd 3 (12-team)
- Roy Oswalt - Ave Pick = 35.66 Rd 3-4
- Roy Halladay - Ave Pick = 37.83 Rd 4
- Brandon Webb - Ave Pick = 43.36 Rd 4
- Carlos Zambrano - Ave Pick = 43.88 Rd 4
- Jake Peavy - Ave Pick = 48.52 Rd 5
Carpenter is the obvious best choice. All of the pitchers should give you 200 innings with an ERA around 3.50 or better. There are several stats that separate them apart. Let’s look at K/9 and BB/9:
- Roy Oswalt - 6.82 K/9 / 1.62 BB/9
- Roy Halladay - 6.14 / 1.27
- Brandon Webb - 6.08 / 2.11
- Carlos Zambrano - 8.49 / 4.16
- Jake Peavy - 9.55 / 2.47
Personally I would eliminate Halladay and Zambrano from the list. Halladay does not get enough strikeouts for me, and Zambrano’s control is alarming. Webb also gets a lower strikeout rate, but he is trending upward over the last two years. My main concern with him is that he pitches in the most offensive stadium on a regular basis. Good thing his groundball to flyball ratio of 4.06 is through the roof. Peavy and Oswalt can give you everything you want from a group B pitcher. Here is how I rank them:
- Chris Carpenter
- Jake Peavy
- Roy Oswalt
- Brandon Webb
- Carlos Zambrano
- Roy Halladay
So who are the two pitchers that I think should be in group B? I believe that Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia should be in group B. Sheets (when healthy) has sick numbers that can help any team, and Sabathia will improve his numbers from 2006 (which were solid). If you can secure a combination of Peavy/Sabathia or Oswalt/Sheets in the 5th through 7th rounds, your staff will dominate and be the envy of the other teams.