Average Draft Position Version 3
Mar 9th, 2007 by winabango
FINALLY!!!
Ok, well it may not be Friday morning, but at least I can announce that the Average Draft Position Spreadsheet is available today. This version should be the ultimate draft resource.
For those of you that are new to the site, this started as a personal rankings page that grew into tracking 437 players. There are two parts to the ADP: Average draft position for each player grouped by position and combined. I have also developed a Scarcity Report that is the best resources for participating in a live draft. I may be biased, because I built it, but others have told me as well.
I have included 18 drafts from various resources, average auction values, and added 9 new players. I have also expanded the data to include 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, and 20 team leagues. I tried my best to develop scarcity reports for NL and AL only. After spending almost 3 hours on building one scarcity report, and not liking what I did, I scrapped it. There is just not enough data to build an accurate one.
I have also added the following notations next to players name:
Notations after players name
* - Multiple Player Eligibility
^ - Top 100 Prospect
Notations before a position player’s name
H - Projected to hit 20 or more HR
S - Projected to steal 20 or more bases
X - Projected to hit 15+ HR and steal 10+ bases
Notation before a pitcher’s name
E - Projected to have an ERA under 3.90
K - Projected to have 160+ strikeouts
X - Projected to have an ERA under 3.90 and 160+ Ks
Here are the Files:
Average Draft Position V.3 - Average Draft Position V.3
ADP Instruction (unchanged) - Average Draft Position Instructions
AL - NL Only Scarcity Report - AL - NL Only Scarcity Report
Now that this is done, you will see me on Mock Draft Central completing as many drafts as I possibly can. I will also be continuing the Team Report write-ups this weekend.
Good luck with all of your drafts!
Kelly
Great stuff! this is really going to be useful at draft day!
Thanks for the work you put in on this but I noticed that in the new report none of the adps have been updated. Did they not change or did I download the wrong document?
Lucas,
You may have downloaded the older version. Does yours have all of the latest notations and Auction values in it? I will take down version two just in case.
Kelly
Ya, my version has the auction values in it but I think I figured out the problem. I can’t have version two and three open at the same time or all the numbers on version 3 change back to version 2. Thanks for the response.
That would do it, because I have links to various spreadsheets that compile the data for me. The big board would not know which sheet to look at.
Kelly
This is a beautiful piece of work. Thank you for all your efforts and for sharing your expertise with all!
I can’t begin to describe how beautiful this is. Thank you so much. Viva la fantasie!
can you make a scarcity depth chart of nl and al only leagues? keep up the great work!
Niko,
As I said in the post, NL and AL only reports were extremely frustrating to attempt. I can build a scarcity report if you don’t mind it being from one source of data, out of order compared to my ADP data, and players being in different positions. For example, CBS has Chone Figgins as an outfielder. On my report, he is at 3B, because that is where he is scheduled to play this year. There just is not enough out there to do it the way I do.
With that being said, I can try to do it straight from one source if you would like.
Are all 18 of the drafts you are getting this data from “expert” drafts?
Your spreadsheet is a mirror image of the one I try to construct each year before drafts. I think ADP is a key statistic because knowing who others want is almost as important as knowing who you want. Thx for your effort, I really like the quality of your data.
Re: To Nl only scarcity report
winabango,
If you can that would be cool. I could create one off your mixed scarcity report. The thing is i would know if it seem right. If you created one i could compare it with mine.
winabango,
this looks like terrific stuff. thanks!
one question: how would you recommend that I modify your scarcity report to accurately reflect positional depth in a 12-team league?
To answer some of your questions:
dp - no not all of the drafts are expert drafts. I did a mix of drafts, and mixed where they came from to get a more accurate view of ADP across the board.
Niko - I will try to work on it this week.
Nick - I am not sure what you are looking for.
Kelly
I have a question about the auction dollar values (because my primary league is an auction..
. I’m assuming most of the data in the ADP report is from true drafts, and not auctions. Was there enough raw auction data to average the auction dollar values, or did you use a formula to compute them from draft data?
All of the data in the ADP is from true drafts, and the Ave Auction values come from Yahoo. I am looking into using the draft data to compute average auction amounts for next years ADP.
kelly
never mind. I now see that you have scarcity reports for 12 team leagues in the Excel spreadsheet.
apologies for being an idiot. thanks again for the info.
nick
Grat job! Glad you included a 20 team ADP’s as well.You just saved me alot of prep time and I just saved money on my car insurance by switching to GEICO.
is there a way I’m not seeing to send you a donation. This is excellent.
Matt,
My work is free of charge. I would accept a donation if you really feel led to. All that I ask is that you simply visit my site regularly and participate with comments and e-mails.
Kelly
Great set-up, especially the scarcity reports. I’ve also been calculating ADP based on drafts(with real people, not “experts”), but i never would have thought of organizing it like that. Thanks for the great idea.
this is fantastic! Thanks!
Niko,
I have posted the AL and NL Only scarcity reports. I sure hope that I was able to get them done in time for you.
Kelly
Winabango,
Thanks alot.. Perfect timing my draft is tonight. Great job.. Thanks again
AWESOME!
Glad I could help.
Kelly
Kelly,
Over the past couple of years I have been developing a macro in Excel to help make recommendations on my draft picks based on whom I have drafted already and who’s available. The backend requires an Average Draft Position spreadsheet. I don’t remember where I found one last year, but your spreadsheet this year has been a godsend. It is exactly what I need and has rankings that I can agree with. I had one of my best drafts last year and I’m hoping that I can top it this year. Thank you and I’m hoping you will continue doing this for future seasons.
Pete
Pete:
For those not smart enough to know how to do that, any chance at getting a copy of that spreadsheet?
Pete,
Please e-mail me about your Macro. I would love to combine the two elements for next years ADP data
Kelly
Love this info and I appreciate all the hard work you put into this. Now, that you have fed me some gold, I want more. I am in an NL only auction league. Do you have estimated auction dollars for a 10 team 5×5 league.
Thanks and once again I really appreciate this stuff. Especially from someone who has no idea how to use excel.
Thanks,
Keith
Keith,
Sorry man, but I have nothing to really help you with estimated auction values. The best resource that I can mention is the Roto Authority projections. Tim projects a dollar value for each player.
Kelly
Is this ADP for a 5×5 roto league? I assume so but would just like you to confirm. Just wondering why CBS 5×5 rankings have the top 8 or 9 closers coming off the board within the first 2 or 3 rounds of a 10 team draft. Your ADP doesn’t project closers this Heavy. Please comment. My 5×5 draft is Sunday night. By the way — great job! and thanks a lot.
brad
I have included data from all styles of drafts.
I honestly have no idea why CBS would have them going in the first 2-3 rounds. You would be considered crazy if you did that. I would not pick a closer until the 6th or 7th round at the earliest.
Kelly