Now that the Average Draft Position project is completed I can back to writing some articles. First of all, I would like to thank the two readers that participated in the draft that I had posted on Friday. I had a great time hanging out with you guys.

So let’s have some fun!

As I was participating in the drafts, I came across a dilemma with my 4th round pick. I drafted 11th in both drafts. So both picks were the 38th overall pick. I also decided that I wanted a Shortstop with my 4th round pick. In the first draft I took Rafael Furcal, and in the second I took Michael Young. I didn’t think there was much to debate until I got ridiculed by people in both drafts for those picks. I didn’t pick either of them before they should have gone, although one said I took Furcal way too early.

So let’s take a look at the 2 players:

They both came into the majors during the same year. Furcal is one year younger the Young. Ok, so that can’t be it. Let’s look at the last three years for trends. They both hit around the .300 mark for batting average, have virtually identical OBP, K% has been the same, and they had identical ISO of .145. Never mind the fact that they get drafted with the overall average pick of 43.52 (Young) and 43.53 (Furcal). So flip a coin and choose one, right?

Well not really.

Do you remember how Furcal had a tough start to last year? What if he didn’t? Take into account that Furcal’s BB% of around 10% is significantly better then Young’s 6%. What if Furcal’s well documented low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) were 30 points higher? Between those two factors, their on base percentage would no longer be identical. Let’s add in that Furcal’s BB/K ratio is definitely better then Young’s. Give the edge to Furcal.

In previous years, Young’s power was his main selling point at a traditionally shallow position for power. That doesn’t seem to be true any longer. His ISO (Isolated Slugging Output) was identical to Furcal’s. In fact, Bill Hall killed both of them in ISO last year. There also seems to be many other players at the shortstop position that can hit 15+ home runs this year. Oh yeah, Rafael Furcal has a definite speed advantage with 37 stolen bases to Young’s 7.

So why draft Michael Young at all?

Consistency is the key factor. Young doesn’t have the trends during the season that Furcal seems to have. You could call Young the steady eddie, and Furcal the shortstop version of Johan Santana. I rode Furcal to a championship last year after one owner got frustrated waiting for him to start playing and dropped him.

So who am I going to take if I am faced with this decision again? I would have to say Furcal. Those 30 additional steals are great, and the 5-10 home run difference can be made up with other players deeper in the draft.  Maybe we will get lucky and he will play to his potential all year long.