Baseball Draft Observations
Mar 12th, 2007 by winabango
One reader asked me if I saw any differences, or trends, in some players average draft position over the last few weeks. Actually I have noticed some trends, and saw some surprising things in both of the mock drafts that I did Saturday. The most consistent trend that I have seen is that pitchers are the majority of the players that are moving in one direction or another. Here are some tidbits that I have seen:
Players on the Rise:
Diaksuke Matsusaka, SP - How could not know that Matsusaka took to the mound, and pitched well. There is so much media coverage of him that you can even know what time he put deodorant on. Seriously though, all of the fantasy owners who were debating, just made the choice to go with him early.
Ichiro, OF - He has been a great player since coming over from Japan, but everyone seems to think this is going to be the classic year before free agency spike in numbers.
Gary Sheffield, OF - Hitting multiple homeruns this spring has helped to lurer owners into taking him earlier then previously. The man, even at age 37, can still hit extremely well.
Mike Piazza, C/DH - Knowing that Piazza will be the DH has made his value rise enormously over the last month.
Rich Harden, SP - This man has nasty stuff on the mound, and his recent performance has him going through the roof. I saw him go 5-6 rounds earlier then what my ADP suggests that he should Saturday.
Dave Bush, SP - I guess Tim over at Roto Authority has been getting everyones attention turn towards Bush. He has very quietly had great numbers over the last two years, including a K/BB rate of 4.37.
Javier Vazquez, SP - Last year seemed to be an anomaly compared to his overall performance. Fantasy owners are starting to believe that. I am not sure that I do though.
Tim Hudson, SP - Looks as good as ever, if not better. I know, I know. I said that he is the one player to avoid from the Braves that others might take. I still stand by that statement, but other owners are going after him numerous rounds earlier.
Players on the Decline:
Juan Pierre, OF - Actually not really sure why, but I think he should continue to drop. I am not a fan of one dimensional players.
Jared Weaver, SP - Recent arm injury has owners scared to take him.
Josh Johnson, SP - Another injury that has possibly wrecked an entire season.
Nick Johnson, 1B - I wrote about his health problems before, but don’t expect him to be full strength until late June at best.
Mark Prior, SP - His confidence, control, and fantasy owners willingness to draft him are all on the decline. I still think he is a good high risk pick to take.
Anibel Snachez, Sp - Not really sure why he is on the list. Yesterday, during both drafts, he sat 4-5 rounds later then where he is on the Scarcity Reports.
New Players to Watch for:
Kevin Gregg, RP - With the closer situation very much in question in Florida, Gregg may end up being the front runner. He is definitely my kind of pitcher with a K/9 rate of 8.16.
Adam Loewen, SP - Is a young pitcher that is looking really strong in camp with Baltimore. In 11 starts in the minors last year, he had an ERA below 3.00 and a K/9 rate above 8.50. Sure his major league call-up from last year doesn’t look impressive, but the kid can throw the rock.
Agree on most parts except Piazza. He’s done man. He’s going to be a bust as a DH, producing well below what many will at the position by other team’s standards. It might help get him a few more at-bats than catching all year would, but he is definitely a player on the decline. I am surprised that Adam Dunn wasn’t ranked as a guy to watch or on the decline. Dunn’s worked his butt off to get in shape and is basically playing for his option contract year ($13 million) with the Reds. I expect him to have a HUGE year.