What do you think?
Mar 13th, 2007 by winabango
With the risk of my ego getting destroyed, I want your opinions on one of the teams that I drafted on Saturday. This mock draft was 20 rounds, 12-team Head-to-Head league with standard 5X5 scoring. I already know what I like and don’t like about the team, but I would like your opinions. Here is the lineup:
C - Michael Barrett - Rd14 P2
1B - Paul Konerko - Rd3 P11
2B - Josh Barfield - Rd10 P2
SS - Michael Young - Rd4 P2
3B - David Wright - Rd1 P11
OF - Vladimir Guerrero - Rd2 P2
OF - Rocco Baldelli - Rd8 P2
OF - Brad Hawpe - Rd15 P11
UTIL - Mark Teahen - Rd12 P2
Bench - Austin Kearns - Rd19 P11
SP - Brendon Webb - Rd5 P11
SP - Ben Sheets - Rd6 P2
SP - Barry Zito - Rd11 P11
SP - Josh Beckett - Rd13 P11
SP - Freddy Garcia - R17 P11
SP - Matt Garza - Rd20 P2
RP - Bobby Jenks - Rd7 P11
RP - Takashi Saito - Rd9 P11
RP - Joel Zumaya - Rd16 P2
RP - Jose Valverde - Rd18 P2
I usually go heavy on pitching in a shallow H2H league such as this one. There are plenty of waiver wire position players to be had at any one point in time.
But what do you think?
A lot of high risk / high reward types with the SP, but the lineup is very balanced. Good BA and HR power, you should also be able to stay competitive with SB.
I like Barrett in round 14 but i also think Konerko was a bit of a reach in round 3 and Baldelli in round 8 seems too high.
Good balance, but I don’t think you have enough speed.
I like the pitching staff, especially if Sheets stays healthy.
I also thought the Konerko was a bit early, but when you factor in that he was the 1B on the board, and I knew that I could get my SS in the 4th round, he was the right choice at the right time.
Baldelli was a slight reach, but he never would have made it back to me by my next pick. When you are picking in the 11th or 12th spot, sometimes you are faced with those kinds of choices.
Kelly
Overall, I think this a very good team. Using CBS Sportsline projections, team should hit .297 with 218 HR, 770 R, 824 RBI, 91 SB. OBP and SLG are .362 and .503, respectively, which is very good. Only offensive category you may struggle in is SB. Pitching is very solid: ERA of about 3.6, WHIP of 1.2, plenty of wins, saves, and k’s. A definite contender
The one pick that I would change at this point would be to draft Furcal instead of Young. That would increase my steals, but not overly hurt my power numbers.
Kelly
Furcal instead of Young. That’s exactly what I was thinking as I looked at your team and saw your need for more speed. Maybe you could still work out a trade.
Otherwise, you have a solid and balanced offense. Webb and Sheets could be two of the top 10 starters in the league and your bullpen should give you enough saves.
I would keep your eye open for starters on the waiver wire, though. Your bottom 4 starters are a bit weak, so I wouldn’t be afraid to dump one or two to pick up a surprising performer or an unlucky pitcher released by a short-sighted manager.
I think the offensive portion is strong.. I’ve never played in a head to head league so I don’t know if you actually need to have more SBs like you might need in a rotisserie league.. I think your SPs could be your weak point though. Yes, Sheets and Webb are both exciting and could totally kill, but Sheets is always a question mark, and after those two your staff drops off rather sharply…
-R
One objective way to evaluate your draft is to look at how you drafted guys vs. MockDraftCentral’s average draft position (ADP) reports. That way, we can see who slipped and who you overdrafted.
C Barrett — you got him 158th, his ADP is 163rd. This intuitively looked like a steal to me, but it turns out it’s just about right.
1B Konerko — you got him 35th, his ADP is 41. The opposite of the Barrett draft; it looks like you way overdrafted but in reality it’s about average.
2B Barfield — you got him 110th, his ADP is 139. This is a two-round overdraft (although I like Barfield quite a bit).
SS Young — you got him 38th, his ADP is 39. Dead on.
3B Wright — you got him 11th, his ADP is 12. Another dead on.
OF Vlad — you got him 14th, his ADP is 12. I have to rate this a slight bargain based on the difficulty of getting an undervalued player in Rd.1/Rd.2. Most people have Vlad as a first-round talent and you got him in the second round.
OF Baldelli — you got him 86th, his ADP is 96. Slight overdraft, but by less than a round, and defensible given your overall lack of speed.
OF Hawpe — you got him 179th, his ADP is 158. That’s almost a two-round bargain, although it’s mitigated by the shallowness of your league.
SP Webb — you got him 59th, his ADP is 51. Good draft.
SP Sheets — you got him 62th, his ADP is 79. Slight overdraft, although he would not have been available a round later, and I like Sheets, so I grade this a neutral.
SP Zito — you got him 131st, his ADP is 133. Neutral.
SP Beckett — you got him 155th, his ADP is 164. Slight overdraft by less than a round. Given Beckett’s upside, I think this again grades out to neutral.
SP Garcia — you got him 203rd, his ADP is 244. Overdraft.
SP Garza — you got him 230th, his ADP is undrafted. Hard to call this an overdraft in the last round, but it depends on who else was available. If you passed up someone like John Patterson (ADP 217), Joe Blanton (ADP 253), Anthony Reyes (ADP 259) — this was an overdraft.
RP Jenks — you got him 83rd, his ADP is 85th. Neutral.
RP Saito — you got him 107th, his ADP is 116. Overdraft by less than a round.
RP Zumaya — you got him 182nd, his ADP is 183. Neutral.
RP Valverde — you got him 206th, his ADP is 191. Good bargain by one full round.
So putting it all together, you got one really good bargain (Hawpe), three minor bargains (Vlad, Webb, and Valverde), a bunch of average picks, three guys who were probably overdrafted, and one clear overdraft (Barfield). That grades out to average, I think.
Andrew,
Thanks for the in depth analysis. I agree on most of your points. The only one I disagree on is Garza. From what I have seen, he has put up comparable numbers to Liriano in the minors. I used my ADP and scarcity reports that I have posted here, and obviously that doesn’t let my picks get to far out of alignment.
Kelly
I like Garza, too, but in a mixed AL/NL league, I think that limits his ceiling somewhat. Still, as fantasy players we focus on the negative. Good draft!