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Team Speed Vs. Speedsters

Mar 18th, 2007 by winabango

When completing drafts on Mock Draft Central, there is a team grading process that occurs afterwards where the participants grade each others teams. The one thing that I here over and over is “you don’t have enough speed”. So I try to figure out why I should waste a 13th round pick on Dave Roberts, or even an 11th round pick (this actually happen last week) on a Scott Podsednik. Why wasts picks on 1 category? Do you know what conclusion I come to, They are wrong!

I know that a lot of you will argue that the speed guys will help in batting average, on base percentage, steals, and in turn, score more runs. There is the common misconception that if a player steals a base, and puts himself in better scoring position, then he will in turn, score more runs. Some are even more wrongly convinced that speed guys will get you more total bases, which is a stat in some leagues.

There are two players that may be considered the ultimate players for the “speedsters” category. That would be Ichiro and Carl Crawford. Great average mixed with incredible speed, and in Crawford’s case, some power. The other day I discussed ISO, and how that accurately depicts total bases accumulated. Here is how Ichiro and Crawford stack up against other players.

ISO

In terms of ISO, and totals bases accumulated, they both are middle of the pack players. Howard lead all players with 383 total bases last year. Ichiro and Crawford each had 289. That is six bases fewer then Lyle Overbay, and equal to Ryan Zimmerman’s total from last year. So here is how the 5 players that i just mention rank in ISO:

Ryan Howard - .346
Lyle Overbay - .196
Ryan Zimmerman - .184
Carl Crawford - .177
Ichiro - .094

So speed will not win you your Total Bases category.

RC - Runs Created

Here we are with another Sabermetric stat that is very useful. Runs Created is an excellent way to depict how many runs a player “creates” or contributes for his team. This does not state how many runs the player scored.  If your player creates a lot of runs, then in turn, they will be a more productive player for the team as a whole. Ryan Howard once again lead everybody last year with 169 Runs Created. Ichiro created 118 and Crawford created 106. By the way, Lyle Overbay created 105 runs last year. Here is how they rank in runs scored last year:

Ichiro - 110
Ryan Howard - 104
Carl Crawford - 89
Lyle Overbay - 82

Grady Sizemore led the league with 134 runs scored. Speed does not create more runs. Also, speed does not score you more runs. However, batting leadoff with great hitters behind you does.

So here is my theory on the speed element of fantasy baseball. Have team speed, not speedsters. Players like Sizemore, Beltran, Abreu, Utley, Wright, and Rollins will have a greater impact on your team as a whole. Also look for players like Zimmerman, Kinsler, Weeks, Hall, Damon, and Baldelli later in the draft. These players will have a better overall effect on your team then Podsenik, Roberts, Pierre, and Taveras will.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | 5 Comments

5 Comments to “Team Speed Vs. Speedsters”
  1. on 18 Mar 2007 at 7:19 am#1BackwardzK

    I totally agree, and have gotten the exact same comments before. “You don’t have enough speed,” often means, “You don’t have one of the 50+ SB guys.” But several 15-30 SB guys who also have average and power can provide all the SB you need — without punting AVG/RBI/etc like you have to with one-dimensional speedsters like Podsednik.

    I also think this phenomenon happens to some degree with power — “lacking power” means “you didn’t pick up Dunn, Glaus, Giambi or other high-profile HR guy in the middle rounds”. But with a careful sprinkling of alternatives like Sheffield, Hawpe, Ibanez, etc, you can still get plenty of HRs without sacrificing the AVG.

  2. on 18 Mar 2007 at 3:58 pm#2winabango

    I always avoid low average guys. I feel they hurt the team way more then they help. I never thought about it in the context of power hitters, but you are right. I believe power numbers mean more in H2H then Roto, because in roto, finishing in the top 4 in every category can win the title.

  3. on 20 Mar 2007 at 6:30 am#3Rookies-N-Cream

    Do you think Carl Crawford is a legitimite first round pick?

  4. on 20 Mar 2007 at 3:39 pm#4winabango

    If you base it off of my article, then no. Fortunately, in most leagues Stolen Bases is a category that can be won with just a few players, and Crawford provides that speed, with enough other stats to not kill you.

    Do I think he is worth a first round pick? No. I think he has second round value, but not first.

    Kelly

  5. on 21 Mar 2007 at 11:13 am#5Rookies-N-Cream

    I’m wondering how you would rank the first two rounds in a standard 5 x 5 roto league. It seems like the basic question one is asked is whether to draft power or speed.

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