I love to look at pitching and evaluate which ones will be great, and which ones are going to suck. If you have been a regular reader of the site, you know that I love pitchers with high strikeout rates. If you combine a high K rate with a solid strikeout to walk ratio, then I am all over them, especially if they are left-handed. I am not sure why I always end up with lefties in my rotations, but somehow I do.

So how do you determine if a pitcher is doing well? Not with the traditional ERA, because most of the actions that influence it are out of the pitcher’s control. Just over a week ago I used BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) in one of my pitcher comparisons. That stat is a good indicator of an “unlucky” pitcher. Today I want to introduce a sabermetric stat called Component ERA (ERC). Here is the definition from Wikipedia:

“It attempts to forecast a pitcher’s Earned Run Average or ERA from the number of hits and walks allowed rather than the standard formula of average number of earned runs per nine innings. ERC allows one to take a fresh look at a pitcher’s performance and gauge if his results are more or less than the sum of its parts.

Did that confuse you more? let me simplify it. Component ERA basically will give you what the pitcher’s ERA should have been based upon how many hits, walks, and homeruns that he gave up. Here is an example:

Brad Penny - In his 1st start of the year he posted and ERA of 1.29 in 7 innings of work. He gave up no homeruns, allowed 1 walk, 1 earned run and struck out 1. If you are looking through the waiver wire, you my be lured to pick him up. That ERA is absolutely amazing when you see that he had a BABIP of .348, and a WHIP of 1.57. His component ERA calculates out to an inflated 5.58 for that same start. Basically Penny pitched lousy, but his teammates helped him out by saving 4.29 runs from scoring. You can not always expect that to happen.

Here are 3 other pitchers of interest:

• Daisuke Matsuzaka - Posted and ERA of 1.29 and a Component ERA of 2.80. That means that his 1st start was as solid as the ERA makes it look
• Kyle Lohse - Had an ERA of 2.84, but his Component ERA was 7.08. Not such a good start.
• Roy Oswalt - He posted an ERA of 1.08 with a Component ERA of 0.98. That means that his start was even better then his ERA indicates. Keep one thing in mind though, he had a BABIP of .177, which is a low number that will be next to impossible to maintain.

As a general rule, Component ERA will be higher then a pitcher’s actual ERA, but it can go the other way.

I hope this helps you evaluate pitchers in the future.