After working two late nights at work, and getting spring yard work done, I am ready to get down to some serious writing. Today I want to answer a question that has been posed to me by two readers over the last week; Is BJ Upton for real, and should I being going out to get him? His current stats look very good:

.358 AVE, 7 HR, 5 SB, 20 runs, and 23 RBI

OK, so they look outstanding, especially when you consider that he hits .483 with runners in scoring position. Of course Tampa does have one of the best scoring offenses this year. The question of whether or not he can keep up this pace is what is on everyone’s mind. No he most likely will not. However, that does not mean that he will not play very well the rest of the year. Would not an ending line of a .270 batting average and 20+ homeruns be a steal from a player that basically went undrafted in fantasy baseball leagues? Then factor in that he has 2B and 3B eligibility. That is a solid player to have picked up off of the waiver wire.

However, here are some alarming stats that tell me that he will not keep the current pace:

He never hit better then .258 in the past
Batting Average of Balls in Play - .500
Strikeout rate - 34.9% (highest in his career)
Line Drive Percentage - 20.0%

No one can maintain a .500 BABIP over the course of a full season. An average BABIP ranges from .290 to .310. That alone should tell you that he will come back down to reality. Just in case it doesn’t, then a ridiculously high strikeout rate, and mediocre Line Driver percentage should. His bat better stay hot, because his fielding is not real good. In 30 games played, he already had 9 errors. Last year, in 50 games played, he had 13 errors. Someday, when the Rays get their act together, they will move Upton out into the outfield.

If you have Upton, I would suggest that you try to trade him for another player. His value is at his highest right now. Try to find the one person in your league that is desperate for a second baseman. Don’t ask for too much, but get a solid player in return. That way you are not letting on to your strategy. If you want to get Upton, don’t mortgage your team for him.

So is BJ Upton for real? Yes, but not at the pace is going right now.