Garrett Atkins is one player that I thought would be incredible this year. I was actually upset that I was unable to get him in many of my drafts. Now I look pretty smart for taking Miguel Cabrera and Aramis Ramirez in three leagues. However, should you being buying low on Atkins? Let’s once again, check out the last two years.

2005 - 519 at bats - .287 AVE - 13 HR - 89 RBI
2006 - 602 at bats - .329 AVE - 29 HR - 120 RBI

2007 - 136 at bats - .243 AVE - 2 HR - 15 RBI

According to this set of stats, Atkins is most definitely under producing. His batting average is especially not aligned with the past two years. So this says that he is a strong buy low candidate. Let’s look at some of the other stats from the last two years.

2005 - .63 BB/K - .347 OBP - .139 ISO - .313 BABIP - 74 RC
2006 - 1.04 BB/K - .409 OBP - .228 ISO - .340 BABIP - 135 RC

2007 - .74 BB/K - .329 OBP - .118 ISO - .279 BABIP - 17 RC

Ok, here is where the problem is. These stats show that Atkins is just not playing well. His walk to strikeout rate is down and his On Base Percentage is down. His Batting Average on Balls in Play is abnormally low, and he is only hitting .194 with runners in scoring position. All of these stats will bring you to the conclusion that he is not going to rebound.

However, now factor in a Line Drive Percentage of 20.7%, which is on pace with the last 2 years, and his still trending upward Fly Ball rate. Those two items tell you that the power stroke is still there, and he is hitting the ball as well as he has before. Add in the low BABIP, and you have a classic example of a solid hitter in the midst of a slow start.

So is Garrett Atkins going to rebound? Yes. Everything points to a struggling player having a string of bad luck, and a very good by low candidate.