Dump Lance Berkman?
Jun 11th, 2007 by winabango
While I was doing the NL Central first quarter report, I had mentioned about Lance Berkman being the most disappointing player over that time span. I also received an e-mail asking about my thoughts on Berkman, and I that got me thinking. What should owners do about Lousy Lance? What level of power is Berkman’s true level? Here are my thoughts:
The one key peripheral that alarms me is the GB/FB ratio. It is reversed from last year year and actually mirrors his 2005 numbers more. Here is what I mean:
2005 - GB% - 45.5% FB% - 31.7% HR per FB - 19.0% (hit 24 HR)
2006 - GB% - 39.0% FB% - 41.8% HR per FB - 24.6% (hit 45 HR)
2007 - GB% - 46.7% FB% - 33.3% HR per FB - 14.5% (hit 8 HR)
Also Berkman’s ISO (isolated slugging output) last year was not around his normal range. Check this out:
2003 ISO - .227 (25 HR)
2004 ISO - .250 (30 HR)
2005 ISO - .231 (24 HR)
2006 ISO - .306 (45 HR)
2007 ISO - .132 (8 HR)
An ISO above .220 shows that the player is a power hitter. So Berkman is a “power hitter” over the past five years, but last year was off the charts compared to other years. All of this to say that Berkman will be a 30-35 homerun hitter, and not a 45 homerun hitter.
Maybe the last few days will turn him around, but he had a stretch of three straight games with a homerun in early May. He still struggled after that. I personally think that Berkman is overrated as a “second round” pick in fantasy baseball drafts. I made the mistake of acquiring him when I thought I was buying low on him. I have since traded him away in a deal that landed me Vlad and Morneau. Berkman is a solid player, but I would try to trade him for a more consistent value, especially in a keeper league.
I was the one who e-mailed asking about Lance. I was offered Lance and Daisuke for Adrian Gonzalez and Snell. I was very iffy on the deal b/c I like the guys I have now and Lance worries me. But after his 2 HRs last week, I thought he was turning it around, so I went for it. Now the trade has been vetoed! The kicker is that half those vetoing think that I’m stealing two stars on a classic buy low sell high. The other half think that I’m being screwed because Adrian and Snell have so outperformed the other two. I just think people are getting a little veto-happy.
i just traded lincecum and adru jones for a dunn… i had enuf of 217 batting avg…. hey wats the word on pedro… im thinking of picking him up. threw 50 pitches
JH - The trade is not one that should been vetoed.
MosaicDan - Dunn will not do much better then .240. I think you got ripped off, but that is just my opinion.
Pedro is starting to throw. If you have the DL spot and need pitching really bad during the last 6 weeks of the season, then pick him up. Otherwise he may be a wasted roster spot until his return.