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Need Speed?

Jun 15th, 2007 by winabango

I was looking into something on the waiver wire in one of leagues, and found something of interest. I found some “speed” players that just may be available at a cheap price. here are some players that may help you out if you are desperate for steals for your team:

  • Shane Victorino, OF PHI - The window to be able to pick Victorino up from your waiver wire may have closed. However, you may be able to acquire him very cheaply in a trade. The ‘Flyin Hawaiian” is in the top 5 in steals in the league. He will not hurt your batting average, and is scoring a ton of runs in the productive Philly lineup.
  • Michael Bourn, OF PHI - Almost nobody has Bourn on their team, because he does not player regularly. In spite of this, he just stole his 10th base the other day. I challenge that he actually plays more often then his stats indicate. He is often a pitch runner and defensive replacement for Pat Burrell, because Burrell cannot outrun an old lady with a walker. He may be a great pick for a short day because he will go 0 for 0 with a stolen base.
  • Dave Roberts, OF SD - This is one player that I found on my waiver wire in a deep roto league. Don’t let the batting average scare you. The elbow injury that he had caused most of the problems. Since returning he has been 3 for 14 with three stolen bases.
  • Ryan Theriot, MI CHC - Theriot has been playing regularly with the injury to Aramis Ramirez. The Cubs are very pleased with his offense and his defense. He is a great addition right now. I personally think that he should be leading off for the Cubs and not that “other” guy.
  • Cory Hart, OF MIL - Hart’s future was a bit in doubt earlier this season, but a good balance of power and speed recently may keep him in the majors. Hart has hit .333 over the last two weeks with 4 homeruns and 4 stolen bases. That is great fantasy value from a player that is only owned in 15% of ESPN leagues.

It seems that all of the speed is located in the National League. Just goes to show the difference between the two league. I do want to put one player on your radar that is in the American League and may have owners ready to dump at a cheap price:

Julio Lugo, 2B BOS - Many owners drafted him thinking that he was going to have a career year in Boston. A .212 batting average certainly is not looking good for that to happen. He has stolen 18 bases this year, but that is all the fantasy baseball value that he has had at this point in the season.

So why do I say that you should buy Lugo? If you look deeper into his stats you will find that his BABIP is an amazingly low .231 when you consider how much speed he has. During his career, his lowest BABIP for a season was .313 in 2003. He posted a .327 BABIP in 2004 and 2005, and a .314 in 2006. So you know that his luck will start to come around. Players with his level of speed will almost always have a higher BABIP then other players.
Want more reasons? How about that his walk rate (7.7%) is just below his typical rate, but his strikeout rate (13.6%) is actually almost 4% lower then last year. So his low BABIP is the real reason for his low on base percentage. Then add in the Boston lineup and you have great run scoring potential.
Lugo owners may be getting tired of his performance so far this year, and he may be able to had at a cheap price. If you are desperately in need of steals, he just may be the right fit for your team.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | 3 Comments

3 Comments to “Need Speed?”
  1. on 16 Jun 2007 at 10:51 pm#1Rick

    Just swapped D-train for Lugo in one of my deeper leagues…so how did i do? Did I “buy low” or “even swap” or did i “get shafted”??

    deep 20 team keeper league…i was pretty stacked at SP (peavy, halladay, hamels, smoltz, kuo, mitre, slowey)…First 3 SPs were on my keeper list, but traded Buehrle for Smoltz in-season. Right now, Lugo is my new 3B with Upton on DL..but once Upton returns, Lugo slips into my “MI” spot replacing Vidro. Speed stats aren’t really a weakness for me and the fact that Lugo demoted to 9 spot will cost him ABs which worries me, but to hell with it, Boston scores too many runs and Lugo is too good to suck all year…right? Am I crazy to hope/bank for a .270, 90 runs, 10 hr, 60 rbi, 35 steals end of the season stat line??

  2. on 18 Jun 2007 at 9:53 am#2winabango

    I personally think that is is a very good deal. Willis has been very disappointing this season so far. The only way that this trade would hurt you is if Willis gets dealt to a contender and then he goes and pitches lights out. I am not sure that I see either options happening.

    Kelly

  3. on 14 Jul 2007 at 6:09 pm#3Fantasy Gameday » Blog Archive » Brandon Harris vs. Julio Lugo

    […] I received an e-mail the other day, and he was wondering if Brendon Harris was for real. He received a trade offer that has him receiving Brendan Harris, and he would ship Julio Lugo. On June 15th I wrote a short section on Julio Lugo, and how I thought he was a buy low candidate. If you would like to read that post, click here. I will revisit some of the same stats to compare him to Brendan Harris. So let’s do it. […]

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