One of the high draft pick players that have been killing my teams as of late is Vernon Wells. Wells has shown solid power numbers over the last few years, and also added some speed to fantasy baseball owners. Over the off-season he received a huge contract, and proceeded to suck this year. I would be lying if I said I have not considered dumping him this year. Will Vernon Wells turn it around? Should you trade him, or should you trade for him? Let’s take a look at him today.

Like Lance Berkman, Vernon Wells has been inconsistent from year to year with his production. Check these stats out:

2004 - .272 AVE, 23 HR, 9 SB, 67 RBI, .220 ISO
2005 - .269 AVE, 28 HR, 8 SB, 97 RBI, .194 ISO
2006 - .303 AVE, 32 HR, 17 SB, 106 RBI, .239 ISO
2007 - .248 AVE, 7 HR, 5 SB, 35 RBI, .152 ISO

As you can see, the batting average has fluctuated by over thirty points over the previous three years. Wells is a career .285 hitter so you know that the .248 batting average this year will not last. His current BABIP for the season is .274, which indicates some bad luck on batted balls, but not a ton. A .254 batting average with runners in scoring position has not helped his value at all either. Here is how well, or not well, he is hitting the ball.

LD% - 16.2%
GB% - 38.4%
FB% - 45.4%
HR/FB - 6.7%
BB% - 6.7%
K% - 14.3%

Most of his percentages are about on par, or just slightly lower then in years past. His Line Drive Percentage mirrors his 2004 season more then 2005 or 2006. The two numbers that stick out more this year are the Fly Ball percentage and the Home Run per Fly Ball rate. His FB% is 5.2% higher then any other year, and his HR/FB is a full 7% lower then any other year. Wells is not hitting the ball as well this year, but unlike Nomar, he is hitting into more flyball outs then ground outs. The power should return for the most part, and he should total about 30 homeruns for the year. I do not think that he will reach the 100 RBI plateau since he has been moved up in the lineup as of late.

Vernon Wells could really use the return of Reed Johnson at the top of the batting order, and Frank Thomas to start doing something. Wells’ best month of the year was April, which was when Johnson was healthy, and people were afraid of Frank Thomas. Since then, Wells and the Blue Jays have been in a downward tail spin.

So what should you do? I think if you have Vernon Wells you wait on him. Another twenty homeruns over balance of the year will help any team. I would rather have a struggling Vernon Wells this year then Andruw Jones. At least you have a chance of having an overall batting average over .270. If you do not have him, then I would try to get him on the cheap while you still can, but be cautious and do not over pay.

Vernon Wells is a buy low player, and not one that should be dumped.