A question was posted in the comments section about ranking certain starting pitchers by how I think they will perform the rest of the year. This is a great question, and I encourage more like this one. Here is how I would rank the following pitchers over the rest of the season:

Matt Garza
Sergio Mitre
Andy Sonnastine
Kevin Millwood
Hong-Chih Kuo
Jeff Weaver

Here is why I ranked them as I have:

Matt Garza - Garza has some of the best stuff of the pitchers listed, and a blazing fastball. He was also the Twins top pick in 2005, and Baseball America has him ranked as the Twins top prospect for this year. He also has posted a K/9 rate of 9.29 this year and a 10.36 over the last two seasons in the minors. I love pitchers with high strikeout rates. He can get hit around a bit, but has struck out 33 batters with runners in scoring position this year. Of the pitchers on this list, Garza also has the best overall team behind him and that gives him the edge.

Sergio Mitre - Mitre is a solid sinkerball pitcher that has some major league experience with the Cubs before coming over to the Marlins. He has posted a below average K/9 rate over his career, but his best quality is his obscene groundball rate of 60.2% over the balance of his major league appearances. Like most sinkerball pitchers, he can get hit around quite a bit, but will often get double play balls to get out of jams. A left on base percentage of over 70% is a good indication that the groundball gets him out of jams. Florida’s defense is not the strongest, and the lack of consistent offense will make wins a tough item to come by. However, if the Marlins get a real Center Fielder during the season then his fantasy value increases.

Andy Sonnastine - Sonnastine is an interesting pitcher to look at. He has outstanding control. In fact, Baseball America says that he has the best control of any pitcher in the Rays lineup or in their minor league system. A strikeout to walk ratio of 9.00 (27 Ks to 3 BB) is an outstanding number. Sonnastine’s major issue is the homerun ball. His FIP ERA of 4.72 is 1.13 lower then his actual ERA of 5.85. I think an ERA of 4.65 the rest of the season is not out of the question. His low walk rate should keep his WHIP down, and the strikeouts will benefit any owner. However, getting wins will be another story since he pitches on a weak team, with a bad bullpen, in the powerful AL East.

Kevin Millwood - Millwood seems like he has been around for ever, but is only 32. So far this year he has been terrible at best, and most of it is a direct result of a BABIP of .372. The other issue is the 1.76 HR/9 rate that he is posting, and that is even before the real heat of the summer in Arlington. The upside? Track record indicates that he should post a 4.50 ERA for most of his starts, and he is getting stronger after two stints on the DL. He will definitely have better numbers over the second half of the season, but spot starting him be the best option.

Hong-Chih Kuo - Kuo has had mixed results in his six starts this year. Two starts were awesome, two were OK, and two were down right ugly. He doesn’t get hit around like Millwood, but the hits he allows (and walks) go a long way to damaging his ERA. Of the pitchers on the list, Kuo has the largest spread between FIP ERA (4.19) and his actual ERA (7.42). His strikeout rate is about where Sonnastine’s is, but an uncertain future and a weak Los Angeles offense is hurting his fantasy value.

Jeff Weaver - I cannot believe anyone would consider Weaver in any mixed leagues, but his last few starts are causing people to notice. Come on, one of them was against the Pirates who cannot hit the broad side of a barn. His last start against the Red Sox gives him some level of credibility. The reality is that his stats can only get better. When you post a 7.71 ERA, .354 Batting Average against, 1.80 Whip, and a ridiculous BABIP of .389, there are two options; retirement or improvement. His strikeout rate of 4.82 doesn’t add any fantasy value to him. The best thing that Weaver has going for him is that the Mariners offense is 10th in the league in runs scored, and they have a pretty solid defense.

I always try to not have long posts, and get to the point quickly, but when you want to accurately compare six starting pitchers, it can take a lot of space. Here is as brief as I can get about these pitchers. I like Garza the best, because of his upside. Mitre and Sonnastine are good high risk / high reward pitchers. Millwood has a decent track record and is getting better. Kuo is inconsistent and Weaver, well, let’s never talk about Jeff Weaver again.