I received an e-mail the other day, and he was wondering if Brendon Harris was for real. He received a trade offer that has him receiving Brendan Harris, and he would ship Julio Lugo. On June 15th I wrote a short section on Julio Lugo, and how I thought he was a buy low candidate. If you would like to read that post, click here. I will revisit some of the same stats to compare him to Brendan Harris. So let’s do it.

here are their basic stat lines

Lugo - .202 AVE, 5 HR, 23 SB, .273 OBP, 36 runs, 40 RBI
Harris - .310 AVE, 8 HR, 3 SB, .366 OBP, 42 runs, 39 RBI

Other then the fact that they play in the same division, there really is nothing that is similar between the two. Sure they have the same number of RBI and runs scored, but they hit at completely opposite ends of the batting order. Lugo started the year in the leadoff spot, but has hit primarily in the 8th or 9th spot over the last few weeks. Obviously, Lugo has more speed, and Harris can hit for more power. The batting average and on base percentage screams that Harris is the better player.

Anyone can tell that Harris was the better player during the second half. It doesn’t take much brain matter to figure that out. But what about going forward? Who has the better production during the rest of the year? Take a look at these stats:

Lugo - 9.2 BB%, 14.0 K%, .098 ISO, .220 BABIP, 2.90 RC/27, 14.9 LD%
Harris - 7.8 BB%, 18.7 K%, .153 ISO, .359 BABIP, 6.02 RC/27, 25.3 LD%

Julio Lugo definitely has the better plate discipline, and has the walk to strikeout ratios that you want in a player. Lugo’s ISO is a bit down, but you don’t have him on a team for his power. The Line Driver percentage shows that Harris has been hitting the ball better. However, the BABIP stats are what is alarming. A .359 BABIP for Harris is unsustainable, especially when you consider that he does not have blinding speed. Most speed players will have BABIP above .330, because they can beat out throws to first. Except for Richie Sexon (.205) Julio Lugo has the lowest BABIP for qualified players. A .290 to .300 BABIP would be considered league average. So as I have stated before, the law of averages says that things will start to even out. That means that Lugo should hit for a better average over the second half. Besides, Lugo has never had his BABIP under .313 for an entire season.

I would also take Lugo over Harris simply because of track record, and the team that he plays on. If he hits .260 for the season (which would be the worst for his career), he would have to hit almost .300 the rest of the year. There is just not enough data to project what Harris might hit for the rest of the year, but a normal regression of his BABIP should have his average around .280 for the rest of the year. I personally think that hitting at the bottom of Boston’s lineup is like hitting in the middle if Tampa Bay’s lineup. If Lugo hits better, and gets moved back to the front of the lineup, then his value will increase.

The trade offer is the classic sell high / buy low situation, and is a fair offer. Julio Lugo is beginning to show signs of hitting the ball better, and the speed will always be there. At this point, I would hang onto Lugo.