Random Thoughts
Jul 15th, 2007 by winabango
Here are some random thoughts that I have about players.
Julio Lugo - Could any player get any lower then he did? Not only was he moved down in the lineup, but then he was being benched. If you have roster space, this may be a great player to trade for on the very cheap. He is starting to heat up, and you should grab him while you still can.
Carl Crawford - I now understand why he is a better roto style fantasy player then a Head-to-Head. I have him in a H2H league, and one week he hits .445 with a homerun and four stolen bases. Then the next three weeks he does zero, but his overall season stat don’t look bad. I am really thinking of getting rid of him.
Brian McCann - He is starting to heat, and the window to acquire him is closing quickly. Do not be too alarmed by the lack of playing time over the next few weeks. The Braves are rumored to be shopping around Salty, and so they will play him more often in an effort to showcase him. He has seven hits in his last six games including three homeruns and nine RBI.
Orlando Cabrera - Owners have begun to realize that Cabrera has better stats this year then Derek “past a diving” Jeter. Hitting in front of Vlad will do that for you. Not bad for someone that I got in the 11th round in my 12-team roto draft. The only other shortstop that I would rather have in roto play is Hanley Ramirez.
Dave Roberts - Talk about flying under the radar. Roberts is owned in very few leagues and he has hit .306 over the last two weeks. He also stole four bases and scored seven runs during that period. Talk about a cheap addition to your team if you are in desperate need of steals.
Kelvim Escobar - Man he has become a stud this year. He has posted solid stats and has a league average BABIP. His 94 strikeouts are a nicely added bonus. If you have a weak pitching staff, this may be a good player to acquire. So would Erik Bedard, who has become a fantasy baseball stud.
George Sherrill - The Seattle relief pitcher is ranked higher then pitcher like Chris Ray, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, Al Reyes, and Chad Cordero. This guy has posted a ridiculous 1.27 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. This is one of those relievers you should have on your team is you are carrying Joe Borowski and his 5.45 ERA.
I also wanted to give an update on where I am in the four leagues that I participating in this year.
8-team H2H - 2nd place - solid team in a great competitive league.
14-team H2H - 7th place - struggled earlier, but trades to acquire Hafner, Mauer and Johan should help.
7-team Roto - 3rd place - Have tried all kinds of crazy strategies to climb out of last place.
12-team roto - 2nd place - very pround of this team, but I have zero closers, which hurts
In your July 14th post about Harris and Lugo you mention the law of averages and imply that for Lugo to get to his career-low BA of .260 that he should hit .300 the rest of the way. I’ve always wondered about this… prior to this year, Lugo was a .275 hitter… so isn’t he likely to hit .275 over the rest of the season? (which, granted is still a marked improvement over his current BA which I think was your point)
Same as if a .300 hitter hits .250 over 100 AB’s. Then over the next 100 AB’s should we expect a .350 BA or .300? I would have thought .300
If a .300 hitter hits .250 over 100 AB’s, the law of averages implies that over the next 100 AB’s he would hit higher than .300 so that by the end of that period he is hitting close his career number of .300
For example, since Lugo is hitting .260, the law of averages says that over the course of the remaining season he will hit higher than his career average of .275 so that, by the end of the season his average will be around .275.
For a perfect example, look at Michael Young’s stats this year. Over the first couple of months, he was awful. Since then, he his been hitting well over .300, raising his average up to .280. You can expect he will continue to hit well and his average will be over .300 by the end of the season.
Absolutely right. Albert Pujols hit .331 last year. He hit .316 during the first half of the season. The only way that he gets a .331 average over the course of the season is to hit higher then .331 during the second half. And he did just that by hitting .344 after the All-Star break.
Kelly
“The only other shortstop that I would rather have in roto play is Hanley Ramirez.”
1. H. Ramirez
2. O. Cabrera
3. Jose Reyes??
Wow.
Great sight, wondering what you think Gallardo might be capable of for the last 2 1/2 months? Also, if you are so inclined, maybe Billy Butler and Alex Gordon?
Cody,
I should have qualified my shortstop comment by saying that Hanley is the best 2nd tier shortstop that I would want. Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are in a class of their own.
Gallardo should be very dominate especially when you consider how weak the NL Central is offensively. I may be used sparingly at times in an attempt to keep his innings pitched count down.
Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have significantly more value in a deep keeper league. They should be pretty solid the rest of the year with stretches of brilliance mixed in with weeks of sucking.
Kelly