After spending practically all of my time on Football ADP, I felt like writing about baseball. So I wanted to ask this question; is Jeff Francoeur a “sleeper keeper”? This is the question that I was trying to answer the other day when I was trying to improve my keepers in a deep roto league. Two years ago, there would be no question about his keeper status after his outstanding rookie year. The 23 year-old first round selection (23rd overall) of the Braves made his debut on July 7th of 2005 and had 14 homeruns over the balance of the season.

So what about his numbers this year?

That is the key question. 2006 was a big disappointment for fantasy owners who did not do their research. Sure his rookie numbers looked good. He had 14 homeruns in 70 games mixed in with a .300 batting average. On the surface it looks solid. However, factor in that he was hitting around .400 after his first 100 at bats, and then followed that up by hitting around .250 over the next 157 at bats. The .250 average with all of the strikeouts (22.6%) was the real Francoeur.

Fast forward to this year. Over the last month Francoeur has been hitting very well and is beginning to show signs of his true ability. Keep in mind that he is still only 23. The key stats for him are the reduced strikeout rate over the last three years.

2005 - 22.6 K%
2006 - 20.3 K%
2007 - 18.6 K%

his walk rate is also trending in the right direction:

2005 - 4.1 BB%
2006 - 3.4 BB%
2007 - 6.1 BB%

Grant it, the walks rate is still really bad, but it is starting to get better. If he would just lay off the junk pitchers early in the at bat, then he would have better fast ball counts. He also has his line drive percentage up to 20.8% which is solid. So I think that the numbers he is posting this year are for real, expect for the batting average. I see that being more in the .285-.290 range over the balance of a season.

The graph trends tend to look like Andruw Jones and Miguel Cabrera at the same age, and those two players turned out pretty good. I think that Jeff Francoeur can be considered a sleeper keeper, and here is why. He is only 23 and is playing for a winning organization that just added some more power to the middle of the lineup. He hasn’t even come close to reaching his overall potential, but his true keeper value is created by how cheaply you can acquire him. For example, in my roto league, we keep five players each year. I traded Joe Borowski for Francoeur. That was a very cheap price to pay, because the previous owner did not consider him to be a keeper. If you are struggling for keepers in a deep league, I think this is a chance that you can take.