Now that I have completed the Fantasy Football Average Draft Position work, and Paul has begun to contribute football related articles, I can get back to what I love to do. So today I am bring a different statistic that most Fantasy Baseball Owners do not know about; Component ERA Ratio (ERC%). By way of review, component ERA is a representation of what a pitchers ERA should be based on the number of hits and walks that he has allowed rather then the number of runs he allowed. The component ERA Ratio is a statistic that attempts to show if the pitcher was “lucky” or “unlucky” based upon the difference between his ERA and Component ERA. If a pitchers ERC% is below 1.00 he is considered to be unlucky, and if it is above 1.00 he is considered to be lucky.

For example, Chris Young has an ERA of 2.12 and a Component ERA of 1.87. His ERC% is .88, which means that he has been “unlucky” and his real ERA should be lower as compared to how he has been pitching this year. Conversely, Noah Lowry has an ERA 3.34 and a component ERA of 4.05 (ERC% of 1.21), which means that he has been “lucky” to have the ERA he currently has.

Here are the top 10 Component ERA leaders and their correspond ERC% since the All-Star Break (min 40 IP)

1. Brandon Webb - 1.35 ERC, 1.04 ERA, 1.30 ERC%
2. Erik Bedard - 1.92 ERC, 1.99 ERA, 0.97 ERC%
3. Cole Hamels - 1.95 ERC, 2.96 ERA, 0.66 ERC%
4. Fausto Carmona - 1.98 ERC, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 ERC%
5. Jake Peavy - 2.21 ERC, 2.26 ERA, 0.97 ERC%
6. Josh Beckett - 2.24 ERC, 2.58 ERA, 0.87 ERC%
7. Orlando Hernandez - 2.26 ERC, 2.91 ERA, 0.78 ERC%
8. Brian Bannister - 2.32 ERC, 2.65 ERA, 0.87 ERC%
9. Tim Hudson - 2.35 ERC, 2.06 ERA, 1.14 ERC%
10. Johan Santana - 2.37 ERC, 3.17 ERA, 0.75 ERC%

It is not surprising to see Brandon Webb top the list. His scoreless streak was not only a feat by him, but also his team. Carmona, Hernandez, and Bannister are all pitchers that may be available on your waiver wire. All three have been pitching well, and slightly unlucky according to their ERC%. It is not definitive that they will pitch even better the rest of the way, but according to the stats, they should keep their current pace.

Here are the Top 10 “unlucky” pitchers since the All-Star break (min 40 IP):

1. Cole Hamels - 0.66 ERC%, 2.96 ERA, 1.95 ERC
2. Andy Sonnanstine - 0.67 ERC%, 7.69 ERA, 5.18 ERC
3. Tim Wakefield - 0.69 ERC%, 4.26 ERA, 2.95 ERC
4. Justin Germano - 0.73 ERC%, 4.74 ERA, 3.47 ERC
5. Johan Santana - 0.75 ERC%, 3.17 ERA, 2.37 ERC
6. Wandy Rodriguez - 0.76 ERC%, 6.25 ERA, 4.75 ERC
7. Braden Looper - 0.78 ERC%, 5.28 ERA, 4.09 ERC
8. Orlando Hernandez - 0.78 ERC%, 2.91 ERA, 2.26 ERC
9. Joe Blanton - 0.79 ERC%, 5.29 ERA, 4.17 ERC
10. Yovani Gallardo - 0.81 ERC%, 4.98 ERA, 4.04 ERC

Now here are some very interesting pitchers mixed together. It is interesting to find Gallardo on this list. It just goes to show that he was pitching fine even when getting destroyed. This list gives some good pitch-and-ditch candidates over the last month of the season that other owners may not look at.

Here are the Top 10 “lucky” pitchers since the All-Star break (min 40 IP):

1. Tim Redding - 1.64 ERC%, 2.15 ERA, 3.53 ERC
2. Steve Trachsel - 1.51 ERC%, 3.86 ERA, 5.84 ERC
3. Noah Lowry - 1.49 ERC%, 3.32 ERA, 4.94 ERC
4. Jesse Litsch - 1.43 ERC%, 2.77 ERA, 3.96 ERC
5. John Lackey - 1.34 ERC%, 4.35 ERA, 5.86 ERC
6. Bronson Arroyo - 1.34 ERC%, 3.95 ERA, 5.29 ERC
7. Dontelle Willis - 1.33 ERC%, 5.40 ERA, 7.18 ERC
8. Kelvim Escobar - 1.31 ERC%, 2.22 ERA, 2.92 ERC
9. Brandon Webb - 1.30 ERC%, 1.04 ERA, 1.35 ERC
10. Edwin Jackson - 1.30 ERC%, 2.79 ERA, 3.63 ERC

This list gives some pitchers that should be avoided over the next month. Tim Redding’s stats stand out the greatest as a pitcher who may struggle the rest of the way. Dontelle Willis has not only been crappy, but he has crappy and lucky and that is a scary combination. John Lackey owners should be concerned, but Kelvim Ecobar and Brandon Webb owners should not be.

As some of you know, I often use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) or Defensive Independent Pitching (DIPS) to gain a more accurate picture of how well a pitcher has thrown relative to his ERA. However, Component ERA ratio is a fun stat to look at as well, and should be used regularly to gain an edge or your competition.