What I learned about Roto this year.
Sep 29th, 2007 by winabango
Before the season began, I wrote and article about how to win in head-to-head leagues. I also had Paul Greco from www.fantasybaseballguy.com write an article about how to win in a roto format. Until this year I had never played roto Fantasy Baseball, and I must say that I now prefer this format. So here are some lessons that I learned:
Aggressive balance
I have been very successful in Head-to-Head leagues because of my managing style, and aggressiveness towards picking up players that can help me during a weekend to win a matchup on the last day. However, I found myself being too conservative in my roto league. I had the mindset that my players will turn it around within a few weeks, and then I can make up the ground. That patience paid off with players like Robinson Cano and Gary Sheffield, but I should have bailed on Vernon Wells way before I actually did. Unfortunately, I never made up the ground.
Roster Felxability
The concept of keeping a Utility spot available for hot players rings true in both formats. I found myself having trouble making room for players, and so I passed up on some key players like Carlos Pena, J.J. Hardy, and Hunter Pence. Part of the issue was that I had the mis belief that my players would able to make up the ground, and the fear of having good players sitting on my bench. I now know that if you have that many offensive players, trade two of them for one upgraded player. Then you have the room to fill your bench with a prospect, and can afford the time to wait and see how he pans out.
Draft Preparation
Every expert, and non-expert for that manner, say that draft preparation is the key to a championship. You know what? They are right. In H2H format leagues, your feeling on a player changes from week to week. I think the draft is more important in a roto format since the players year long accumulation of stats is what determines your place in the standings, and how you feel about them. Do you prep on the sleeper picks, and then when Kelly Johnson is exceeding expectations trade him for a more consistent performer.
Never bail on a category
This was a hard lesson learned this year. I messed up in the draft by under estimating when my opponents were going to be taking closers. So I spent most of the year with a handful of closers. I agree with Mathew Berry at ESPN on the fact that you do not pay for saves. Too many closer situations have changed each year to pay a high price for a closer. However, I bailed on saves at one point, and I believe that I cost myself a solid chance at the title because of it. I have had more saves over the past two months because I traded an injured Ben Sheets for Joe Borowski, and then grabbed speculative waiver wire players like Jamie Walker and Manny Corpas. Then I balanced out the high ERA of Borowski with Joba Chamberlin and Rafeal Perez.
Offensive Roster Balance
In H2H leagues, you can easily get away with overloading on a category like Home runs. Even if you do not have a Juan Pierre, you may still win steals one week, because you opponent only had one or two steals during the week. In roto, a balanced offense is key, and five category players are gold. Someone like David Wright or Jimmy Rollins provide a good base. However, having a combination of second tier players like Juan Pierre and Jeff Francoeur will provide balance as well. Don’t forget about the other part of a balanced offense, players with high batting averages. In my deep roto league, I am the only owner in the top 6 that has a combined batting average that ranks in the bottom 3.
Dominate Starters rule the land
What I consider a dominate starter is not necessarily one that will get 20 wins in a season. I think you should have three starters that will get you a fair share of wins, but will help dominate the strikeout category. I firmly believe that strikeout pitchers will also produce a lower ERA, and in turn, generate a greater chance at wins. Take a look at Scott Kazmir. He has 229 strikeouts, 3.48 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. He still posted a respectable 13 wins this year, which is only two less then the first round drafted Johan Santana. Those two wins can be made up by a solid middle reliever. My point is that a strikeout pitcher will help in three out of the four categories, even when they are on a bad team.
Don’t have too many starters
This was another lesson that took almost all year before I realized that I was doing it incorrectly. In my H2H leagues I carry no offensive bench players, and stock up on all of the pitching that I can. This works fantastic in H2H, but a found myself up against my innings pitched cap way too soon. I missed out on some great spot start matchups with waiver wire pitchers, because I did not have the roster space, nor the innings to spare. I also found that when you have a stretch of three weeks with bad starts that your ERA is killed for the season. In both of my roto leagues I had good ERA and WHIP stats ruined by a bad stretch of poor outings. Since I had so many innings pitched, I could never bring it back down enough. Carry fewer starters, solid relievers (especially dominate middle relievers), and use carefully selected spot starts.
I had numerous people tell me that they just set their lineup in roto, and let it go. You need to spend as much time, if not more, in roto to optimize your roster. I do not recommend streaming players, but have the roster flexibility to move players in and out and catch as much lightning in a bottle as you can.
On a side note, at the beginning of the season I stated that you should draft Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore and ride them to a championship. Guess what two players the champion in my deep 12-team roto has on his roster.
