Prospect Watch - Not so fast!
Dec 7th, 2007 by winabango
The big trade of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers have been well documented, and I am not going to able to offer much more then what has already been stated. However, I have received several e-mails regarding the two main prospects that were sent to the Marlins. Here are my thoughts on them:
I have been a “big” fan of Andrew Miller, and I even encouraged a speculative pick-up of him when he was called up last year. What is not to like about a 6 foot 6 inch left-handed pitcher that throws like Randy Johnson. OK, maybe his control is a bit off, but Johnson posted similar walk ratios when he started. Remember, Andrew Miller came into the majors as a 22 year-old last year, and Randy Johnson was 26 his first season. So give him time to develop.
My largest concern with drafting Andrew Miller in 2008 is that he now has absolutely zero offensive support. The good part is that he will get the playing time in 2008, and he is now pitching in a weak National League. However, I would lay off of him for the beginning of 2008.
Cameron Maybin has been described as a five tool player, and is all but guaranteed the center field job in Florida. He has plenty of speed and PECOTA rates him in the 90th percentile in that category. He also has potential for double-digit homeruns as well. That all sounds good, but his strike out rate of 42.9% is ridiculous. I know that last year was not a large enough sampling, but he also posted strike out rates over 28% at all other levels last two years. By way of example, last year 11 qualified players had a strikeout rate of 28% or higher. Only three players (Upton, Thome, Pena) had a batting average above .270. I would not expect any kind of high batting average from Maybin until he learns to not swing at everything.
So before you rush into a 2008 draft and start selecting Miller and Maybin, take careful consideration of what they may do to your team. In two or three years these two will be fantastic fantasy options, but not for 2008.
Having watched Maybin in Detroit last year, I would project him as a 2008 decent CF, and perhaps coming into his own by 2009. He is a bit too free with his swings, and occasionally looked lost in the outfield.
Miller on the other hand looked poised initially, then seemed to lose his composure following his injury. I would think he will develop into a decent No. 3 SP this year and could soon become an ace.
All in all, since the Tigers are playing for it all now, I think the trade makes sense for Detroit, and will probably provide benefits to Florida over the next several years as the prospects develop.