Mailbag - Keeper Question
Dec 28th, 2007 by winabango
Today we have a keeper question that I pulled out of the mailbag. Andrew wrote:
This is only my second year in the league and my first actually being able to keep players. The format is a 10 team 9×9 scoring league where each team can keep 3 players.
The good news is that I made a lot of trades during my dismal 1st year to set up nicely with quite a few early round picks this year. The bad news is I don’t think that I really have any clear cut keepers.
Out of these players, which 3 should I keep?
Derrek Lee
Dan Uggla
Troy Tulowitzki
Nick Markakis
Alex Rios
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
J. Valverde
Braun is obviously the sexy pick but the rest I’m not sure….do I keep the players that yielded the highest amount of points (Rios, Markakis) or favor the higher ranked positional players to give me an edge (uggla, tulo, velverde)?
First of all, you are correct that Ryan Braun is a must have. You cannot pass up the potential that he brings to the table. Besides, you got him from the waiver wire, and you have so little invested in him. Even if he flops, what did you lose? David Wright is the only player that comes close to the power and speed combination at third base.
Let’s narrow down the list by process of elimination. Jose Valverde is an interesting pitcher. One year he is sent to the minors to deal with mental and control issues, and the next year he leads the league in saves. His trade to Houston actually devalues his value in my opinion. As a rule, you should not keep closers anyway. Dan Uggla is a decent player on a crappy team. The power from the second base slot is nice, but his batting average will bring your overall team down. You can get double digits in power and speed from Kelly Johnson, who can be selected much deeper in the draft. If walks or OBP is a stat, he will help you there as well. Derrek Lee is a consistent bat, but is not the type of player that will give you any advantage over your competition. So I would not keep him, because there are 6-7 other players that will give you the same production.
OK, that leaves Tulowitski, Markakis, and Rios for two spots. Troy Tulowitski is a definite keeper. Solid power from a shallow position, and a great lineup around him, are the reasons why I would keep him. That leaves Rios and Markakis for the last spot. I don’t think that you would go wrong with keeper either of these players, because they are basically the same player:
- Markakis - .300 ave - 23 HR - 18 SB
- Rios - .297 ave - 24 HR - 17 SB
Even their strike out and walks rates are the same. I love Nick Markakis, but I hate the rebuilding lineup that is going to be around him. I like Rios’ lineup better, but I am not sure that he will improve any more then he has. Rios is hitting the magical “age 27″ year, but Markakis has the greater ceiling. I think the choice is dependent upon what you want for next year. If you want to have a more sure thing, then you should keep Rios. If you want the best player that can be dominate for the next 4-5 years, but necessarily this year, then you keep Markakis.
Here is who I would keep:
- Ryan Braun
- Trot Tulowitski
- Nick Markakis
Then I would use your early draft picks to get some proven players to round out the young keepers.