It’s the New Year and a fair number of position rankings are available for everyone to check out. There is really no downside as these lists are unlikely to change significantly before any league’s draft day. Minor adjustments will occur here and there, but especially with veterans most people’s minds are already pretty much made up. After getting a feel for the general consensus, here are some outfielders I am keeping on my radar and some I am avoiding. Put simply, who is undervalued and who is overvalued?

Overvalued

Aaron Rowand: Last year he posted an OBP 31 points over his career average, and a SLG 53 points over. He’s moving from a bandbox in Philadelphia to pitching favorable San Francisco. He’s likely to disappoint even tempered expectations.
Don’t draft over: Delmon Young, Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell

Torii Hunter: Don’t pay a premium after a player over 30 has a career year. Ask anyone who drafted Jermaine Dye last year. Hunter did not blow his career averages out of the water in 2007, but I want him 20-30 spots later than his ADP of 50.
Don’t draft over: Nick Markakis, Adam Dunn, Hunter Pence

Johnny Damon: In 2007 he slugged under .400 for the first time since 2001. Scored under 100 runs for the first time since 1997. It cannot just be the injuries he dealt with; he still suited up for 141 games. That is a number that may decrease, as the team looks to keep Melky Cabrera in the lineup.
Don’t draft over: Shane Victorino, Jason Bay, Josh Hamilton

Josh Willingham: Taking Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup hurts. More troubling is a back injury that he hopes to rehabilitate in the offseason. He’s not in the AL, so if he starts hurting again he’ll have to sit.
Don’t draft over: Michael Cuddyer, Jose Guillen, Josh Fields

Corey Patterson: He’s still a free agent. At this point no one will sign him as a starter. Don’t draft him like one.
Don’t draft over: Coco Crisp, Matt Kemp, David DeJesus

Undervalued

Melky Cabrera: In how many sound bites did various Yankees give “the young guys who are providing good energy” credit for their second half surge. Melky will get playing time, and last year he was a top 20 fantasy performer for the month of August.
Could be as good as: Jermaine Dye, Corey Hart, Johnny Damon

Bill Hall: He was gone before round 10 in most drafts last year. Yes, he no longer qualifies at SS, but the Brewers still have a very good lineup. Should be over the ankle sprain he suffered last year and more comfortable in the outfield, which may help him get back into hitting form.
Could be as good as: Andruw Jones, Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher

JD Drew: He’s worth a gamble, and is a bargain if he can adjust in his second year in Boston the way his teammate Josh Beckett did. He’ll continue to have opportunities to drive in runs.
Could be as good as: Ken Griffy Jr, Garrett Anderson, Delmon Young

Pat Burrell: As a qualifier, I like him better in rotisserie leagues than head to head. He is streaky, as is obvious looking at his first half/second half splits last year, but remarkably consistent year to year. He may kill you some weeks, but over the long haul he gets it done. In his last three years his HR totals are 32, 29, 30. OBP is .389, .388, .400. SLG is .504, .502, .502.
Could be as good as: Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, Brad Hawpe

Cameron Maybin: Florida had essentially no CF last year, so they are ready to give him the job. Slugged .488 in the minors with 52 steals in 191 games. Worth a flier to see if he can cut down his strikeouts enough to succeed.
Could be as good as: Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton, Chris Young

Jay Bruce: Players like Ryan Braun don’t come along very often, so it’s silly for drafters to be expecting another this year. That said, if you want to gamble on a prospect that is not guaranteed to start the year with the big club, Bruce tops the list. For what its worth, here are Bruce’s 2007 OBP/SLG/OPS stats: .375 / .587 / .962. Braun’s in 2006 were .357 / .514 / .871.
Could be as good as: If things break really well, 90% of players drafted above him.