The Wonder Years: Hitters 25-29
Jan 11th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
Every year there are a handful of guys who make you or one of your friends look really smart. You know, like taking Granderson “early” and having it turn out great, like refusing to give up on Garret Atkins even when he is having a terrible start, like not using your waiver all year because you were saving it for Ryan Braun all along? Well, this is a guide to the hitters who are going to make you look good this year. A note for owners in keeper leagues, all players mentioned here are under 30.
Matt Holliday had a fantastic year in ‘07. It is not a reach to take him in the top 8. Traditional thinking says to hold off until the “big names” are gone, but there’s no reason he should be considered second tier behind players like Crawford or Sizemore. You can get your steals elsewhere.
Brandon Phillips had a very “under the radar” year as statistically the second best 2B. If he can continue to mature as a hitter, he will be a top 2-3 second basemen. His 650 ABs last year also bring comfort injury-wise to any fantasy owners.
Garret Atkins had the best second half of any player in baseball. He hit .349 after the break and salvaged what was a terrible season. This is the second year he has come on strong in the second half. He is capable of having a great full season, and even if he is only a second half player, isn’t that what is important in fantasy baseball?
Adrian Gonzalez had a very good sophomore year. The only problem - he is playing in San Diego. One of the worst hitters parks in the league. If he ever gets out you can anticipate even better numbers. For now he is still a good investment you should be able to snatch up a little later than he should go.
Howie Kendrick is about to turn 25 and had a bit of hand issues last year. When healthy he looks to be an elite hitting young hitter. He is in a nice lineup in Ana…. ahem, LA. He is worth looking at in the middle rounds as a injury risk/reward guy who could blow up.
Nick Swisher will like his new surroundings. He is a fan favorite because he is young. For the same reason he is poised for a bigger year than most think.
Edwin Encarnacion Hit .289 after being sent down for not running out an infield pop up. If you can handle his lack of hustle, then he would be a great bargain in deeper leagues.
Curtis Granderson now has another big bat (Miggy) to bring him in, and an off-season filled with work on hitting lefties. Last year was only a sign of things to come from this exciting player.
J.J. Hardy had a horrific second half. He proved he had something his first time around the league however. If he can manage to find a place in the middle, then he could be a nice late round steal.
Ricky Weeks is still quite a gamble because of his injury history. He still has potential to supply your team with power and speed from second base. His injury was his wrist, so do with that information what you will. People are sure to avoid him like the plague because of it, but he’s worth a shot.
Brad Hawpe had a quiet 29 HRs. In spite of platooning for a month or two he still put up big numbers and has undoubtedly “won” his position. Full time at bats, a world series lineup, and Coors Field spell another big year for this kid.
Nick Markakis/BJ Upton hit .300 and are probably top five round picks in any league. If you are in a keeper league, then buy either of these guys ASAP. Upton’s 2b eligibility gives him the slight edge…. even in TB.
Shane Victorino won’t have to compete for a spot anymore now that Rowand is gone. He should steal even more bases this year. His average won’t cripple you, and he hits about the same against righties and lefties. If there were to be a platoon, it would go the way of Werth (outstanding vs lefties last year in 88 ABs) and Geoff Jenkins (less outstanding .215)
Wily Mo Pena left Boston and was handed a starting role in Washington.He was also handed his confidence …. 133 AB, 8 HR, 22 RBI, .293 AVG ….. good not great, but deserves a flyer at the very least in the late (late) rounds.
If you stick to drafting young tradable players with upside, not only will your team improve, but you will be hearing trade proposals that are obscene from your panicking league mates. If you have any questions, comments, other feedback, or just want to talk baseball, please feel free to leave comments.
I gave up on Atkins just after Memorial Day last year. I’m still kicking myself. I think Kendrick is a good post-elite second baseman too.
how do you preach patience with guys like atkins? last year, i almost threw in the towel after terrible aprils on guys like ichiro and wright (very silly, in hindsight) but was happily rewarded when they found their stroke. meanwhile, i hung on guys like delgado and hafner waiting for them to turn it around or at least regain some trade value. is there any approach to this other than going with your gut?
Wright - 25, ichiro - 34 (but a physical specimen), Atkins - 28
All these guys are thin and in great shape. They are reasonably proven, YOUNG guys.
Delgado is 35 and had been declining for 4-5 years now. He should have been a sell high guy since he was last traded. Hafner (30) is a DH only and a big boy, which scares me a little bit.
What I look at when I decide to sell high or hold on to is age, physical fitness, and track record of mid-season splits. Like I said with Atkins, this isn’t the first time he has taken a few months to find his swing.
You also have to make sure his common stats are reasonably in line with his saber stats. If his BABIP doesn’t match up, its almost ALWAYS better to wait it out. (this rule applies to pitchers as well, only fitness isn’t as heavy of a factor)
I hope that helped, and thanks for the comments. Keep ‘em coming.
The second half is only more important if you’re not playing roto, even in h2h a weak start could alter your playoff plans.