Catchers: Buyer Beware
Jan 15th, 2008 by Joshua Bakal
Once upon a time, there used to be a catcher who was truly worthy of being reached for in the second or third round of your fantasy baseball draft. That catcher was Mike Piazza, who, from 1993 to 2002, averaged 34.6 homers, 106.6 RBIs, and a .322 batting average. In that ten-year span, which included a strike-shortened 1994, Mike Piazza never hit less than 24 homers, never drove in less than 92 runs, and never batted less than .280. Since then, fantasy enthusiasts have been scrambling to find the next backstop who will stand out amongst his colleagues as the answer to a questionable field of candidates. Lately, draft participants have looked to the likes of Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, and Brian McCann as the pick du jour at a weak position, and Russell Martin is set to join the crop for 2008. These top catchers, however, have not been producing enough to justify their early draft spots or the gap between their selection and the selection of the less-touted options at catcher.
Below are the home runs, runs batted in, and batting averages for Mauer, Martinez, and McCann during the 2007 season. Each one is grouped with a player taken shortly after, according to ESPN’s average draft position (ADP), as well as a catcher that could have been snagged in the later rounds, after the big hitters were off the board. See if you can find the brand name catchers that fantasy owners reached for in 2007 drafts, starting with Joe Mauer.
- Player A: 7 HR/60 RBI/.293 BA
- Player B: 36 HR/137 RBI/.340 BA
- Player C: 20 HR/90 RBI/.338 BA
This first group may have acted as a warm up, as “Player A” is clearly Mauer, recognizable by the low HR and RBI totals of a player whose season was once again cut short by injury. His ADP last year was 28.0, just ahead of the 29.1 ADP of “Player B,” also known as Matt Holliday, the runner up to NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, who was also taken after Mauer in drafts. “Player C” is Jorge Posada, whose batting average might have been an aberration, but his other stats remain consistent with career averages. He was a bargain at his 131.8 ADP, more than 100 picks after owners jumped on Mauer. Those who had Mauer on their team have suffered enough, so I’ll move on to Victor Martinez.
- Player A: 29 HR/102 RBI/.337 BA
- Player B: 25 HR/114 RBI/.301 BA
- Player C: 19 HR/87 RBI/.293 BA
Here, you would be correct if you guessed “Player B” is V-Mart. His ADP of 47.5 was significantly earlier than the 88.4 of Chipper Jones, represented by “Player A.” However, Chipper did not have the benefit of career highs in HRs and RBIs, which Martinez had to help his cause. The mysterious “Player C” is Russell Martin, who was a steal at his 170.3 ADP last year, but is primed to move up the draft board in 2008 to a round that demands results from its players. Let’s move on to the last group, featuring Brian McCann.
- Player A: 19 HR/81 RBI/.276 BA
- Player B: 40 HR/106 RBI/.264 BA
- Player C: 18 HR/92 RBI/.270 BA
In this group, “Player C” is McCann, who had an ADP of 66.4 and hit less than half of the homers of “Player B,” whose ADP was 72.5 and is named Adam Dunn. “Player A” is Bengie Molina, who, and this is the best part, didn’t even register an ADP, going undrafted in most leagues. In other words, you could have passed on McCann, drafted Dunn, and “settled” for Molina in the final round. For those of you who did something to that effect with comparable players, I salute you, and hope you mentioned your net gain with the friend or coworker who was overly smug when he “stole” McCann at the draft six months before.
Drafts for the 2008 fantasy season are right around the corner. The moment of truth will come, when offensive monsters like A-Rod, Pujols, and Soriano are long gone, and the rounds that make or break a team arrive. Will you draft the best available player, or the player who ranks high at a weak position? Would you rather get a Mauer or Martin now, or a Posada or Saltalamacchia later. The decision is tough, but inevitable. Beware of the hype, because we have yet to see “Piazza numbers” consistently from any candidate. Good luck this season, and may your draft be filled with pleasant surprises.
josh,
excellent analysis on the pitfalls of reaching for the few “stars” at thin positions such as c. one can certainly see how the big name numbers can be made up later in the draft with lesser players and a much higher impact player can be grabbed instead. however, your piece to me seems to be in almost stark contrast to the major reason i have found myself coming back to this website; namely the adp spreadsheets kelly puts together which i credit for much of the success i enjoyed last season.
it almost seems that you are suggesting that such data may not be a reliable indicator for draft timing (since, after all, it comprised by people ranging from experts to novices to the girl drafting for her boyfriend who got stuck in traffic on his way home from work— that one actually happened in one of my drafts). the alternative to this (and more likely case) is that you may only be suggesting there are certain positions (c, 2b, rp come to mind) where there is not a huge difference between the numbers put up by the “bigger” names and those futher back in the crowd and therefore one should not reach the big names, as often happens when there is a closer run or catcher run on draft day, but rather wait for a hidden gem in the later rounds.
if that is the case, what suggestions do you have for bypassing some of these bigger guys and uncovering the gems?
the one thing not mentioned in the article is the number of games played. apart from a few catchers, most catchers will max out at around 120-130 games a season which reduces their at bats and therefore restricts their ability to gain cumulative scores (runs, hr, rbi, steals).
looking at last year
martin 150 games 536 ab 19 hr 87 rbi
martinez 147 games 562 ab 25 hr 114 rbi
mccann 139 games 504 ab 18 hr 92 rbi
molina 134 games 497 ab 19 hr 81 rbi
for those in daily change leagues, would you suggest ignoring the star names, draft other position players and then take two lesser catchers and interchange them depending on who is playing or the match-ups on a particular day ?
Bryan: My analysis is geared toward the trends associated with drafting catchers. I don’t feel that ADP is an ureasonable source for projecting where a player gets taken; chances are, the ADP will be fairly accurate in representing the direction your drafts will take. I’m suggesting that, in the case of the top catchers, it’s better to approach a draft with the mindset that you’ll take such catchers if it’s a couple rounds past their ADP already, rather than being an owner in the percentile that drafts at or before the ADP. Don’t be disappointed if you don’t get lucky while playing the waiting game, because the next crop of catchers (Johjima, Posada, Varitek, Pierzynski, etc.) may not have a high ceiling, but they are low-risk veterans with consistent stats who have lineup protection and will not hurt your team. You may not be uncovering “gems” with youth, but you can feel confident going forward while making the most of your early round picks.
guffybear: My belief is that as long as you draft a catcher who generally plays everyday, even if he gets one day off per week to rest or because the backup acts as personal catcher to one starter, you’re not going to miss out on significant cumulative stats. For one thing, SBs should be thrown out the window as a factor in drafting catchers since, with the exception of Martin swiping 21 as a rookie, it’s unreasonable to expect more than a handful from them. In regards to HRs, Runs, and RBIs, the strength of the surrounding lineup and hitter-friendly home fields give greater opportunity for a player to account for more runs, and I’d rather take a catcher who benefits from environmental factors six rounds later, just to make the most of the early picks. Martinez and Martin may have played the most, but the 15-20 games they might have on their peers can easily be made up from the stats accumulated by the 35 HR/125 RBI guy available in that round. If you have roster space for a second catcher because your other positions have depth, that is something to consider. If not, a few extra games left over for “games played” is not a big deal, and you might even benefit a little in the batting average department, if your team’s overall BA exceeds that of the catcher you would have started that day.