2008 Projections for top AL Starters
Jan 16th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
This Is A Call to Arms: Young AL Starters Player - (projected W, ERA, WHIP, Ks) - It is never too early to start developing projections, and determine where you should be drafting players in 2008 fantasy baseball drafts. Here is a quick look at the young aces of the AL.
Johan Santana - (18, 2.95, 1.01, 245) - If Johan Santana is not dealt, then he will continue his reign of fantasy brilliance and consistency. If he is dealt to the Mets, then it will become even better. To the Sox, a bit worse. Minnesota is about average for him. Not that he needs better numbers, but if he stays and doesn’t get extended it’s his contract year. He is still the most dependable option if you have a middle of the road second round pick. He should still be the first pitcher taken in any draft.
C.C. Sabathia - (18, 3.02, 1.09, 213) - Last year’s Cy Young winner was the most consistent pitcher in the league. He had the best K/BB for a starter in the league by a fair amount (5.65, 2nd place was Shields with 5.11). Progressive field is not a great pitchers’ park either. High K numbers are key to his success. Also he has made 29 or more starts every year he has been in the bigs. CC is a workhorse and a solid choice in early rounds. Oh, and for what it’s worth, it’s his contract year.
Josh Beckett - (21, 2.98, 1.11, 229) - Boston is the hardest place to pitch in the league, period. It means even more for a pitcher who is known to give up a lot of HRs (see 2006). He’s had success this year because he has found complete command of his pitches, and V-tek has handled calling the pitches beautifully. His finger blister issues look to be behind him so you can expect more of the same in ‘08.
Dontrelle Willis - (19, 4.01, 1.32, 166) - If I could put money on one thing it would be the D-Train having a better year than last year. Here are some things he will have this year that he didn’t have last year; a ton of run support, an average BABIP (last years was .370!), hitters who have never seen him and his unorthodox delivery, a better park to pitch in, and two more great young pitchers in his rotation. It’s not going out on a limb to say he is going to have a big year.
Eric Bedard - (14, 3.69, 1.11, 229) - Camden Yards is not friendly to pitchers. Bedard has still managed to get by quite well. He also has had bad luck, or bad defense, behind him (.371 BABIP). His high K numbers help diminish both factors. He is on the cusp of being traded (apparently, MLBTR) and if he does, then he will surely have better win totals and run support. For now you can expect more of the same and take him at face value, but if he gets dealt, he is sure to be a steal and transform into an even more elite pitcher than he is now.
Justin Verlander - (17, 3.49, 1.20, 197) - Looks like a sure fire young arm to add to your team right? Not so fast. Last year he had tremendous fortune with where the balls were hit off him. He posted a .200 BABIP which is amazing since he pitches in one of the most wide open parks in the bigs. Even though he has electric stuff, and has always had very high K numbers, beware of lady luck catching up to him. It almost has to happen this year, so be careful. If you do end up with him, it might not be a bad idea to flip him to a sucker for someone more reliable.
Scott Kazmir - (13, 3.34, 1.30, 163) - Pitching in the AL east has not been the easiest thing to do in recent years. Kazmir has seen the best the league has to offer and handled them quite well. Tropicana is easy on the arms but the players who come through there are not. Considering the little run support he has dealt with and the competition he is facing, his numbers aren’t going anywhere. The kid is for real, and if you are in a keeper league, hold onto him as long as you can or at least make sure you get top notch compensation for him.
Jeremy Bonderman - (15, 4.12, 1.67, 178) - Bonderman should get a ton of run support since he now has the best lineup in recent history behind him. Last year he showed signs of his command improving, posting career highs in K/9 (7.49) and lows in BB (48). Put all that together and take a lot of pressure off him now that he has 2 other top of the rotation guys going into battle with him and he is set up for a career year.
Fausto Carmona - (13, 5.04, 1.88, 122) - Again, Progressive Field is not the easiest place to pitch. Carmona had a nice ‘07, there is no doubt about that. His control was miserable all season (92 BB). He benefited from a lot of defensive help as well. His DiPS ERA was .82 higher than his ERA. This year will almost certainly produce significantly worse results than his first year starting. He is only 24, and has plenty of time to figure it out, but let him figure it out using someone else’s 6th round reach pick.
NL to come next week. If you have any specific guys you’d like a closer look at please let me know in the comments, and I will do my best to include them. Thanks for reading. As always, comments encouraged.
I would like to read about Felix Hernandez and James Shields.
If you have time could you also include the not so young Roy Halladay, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Javier Vazquez.
Many thanks
I was at King Felix’s one hitter at Fenway last year. He is the real deal and his stuff is filthy. He has only 2 years under his belt so we might see the sort of thing we saw after the D-Train had a great year or two then fell off for a while. That being said, he is one of the top guys in the mix. I’d say he is good for about 15 wins and a 3.7 ERA. Seattle is pretty neutral as an offense and as a park. All things being equal I would put him just after Verlander on your cheat sheet.
James Shields is strange. He fell off the face of the planet after being a top 10 SP for a little while. I didn’t think one full season with 12 wins quite put him into the elite of the AL. That being said, I have him penciled in for 14-16 wins and averages that won’t hurt you. Also note if you do end up with him he had much more success at home than he did on the road, maybe it is the lack of pressure from the 4 fans at the game. He had 2 wins every month, so I guess you could call him consistently inconsistent? Be careful.
It’s late, I’ll tackle the other guys later.
But Briefly, Halliday is injury prone (obviously) so be careful, Escobar is better than you think, take away his September and then look @ his numbers…. Scary, I know. Lackey is still “young” I don’t know why I left him off the list. Anyway, he’s good. He’s very good. Stick him around Felix and Verlander, probably a little below. Vazquez is 31, good at home and on the road. Trailed off towards the end of the year. Still not bad between the 6-8th round… or 22$ish, whichever floats your boat.
If you have anything you’d like to see in a later article you can email me at nortonty@emmanuel.edu and I will try to get to it. (note: next week I’ll look at young NL guys, if you want to see specifics, let me know)
tyler,
would love to hear about some of the younger guys that’ll help decide the nl east race (maine, perez, myers, hamels) are well as some of the league’s youngers guns (bailer, lincecum, gallardo, andrew miller, rich hill).
163 Ks for Kazmir? that is very, very low, given his K/9 — unless you are projecting reduced playing time for some reason..(which doesn’t seem likely given 13 Ws). can you explain how you arrived at that number?
His K/9 was higher than it has ever been. I don’t think he can repeat. Back in 05 he had 2 less starts than in 07 and finished with only 174 Ks. I think last year was his break out year and his most dominant. LHP have an advantage (obviously) but as they get around the league more and more times the lefty novelty wears off.
That being said, I neglected to look at his BB numbers, which have dropped significantly in the last few years. In hindsight, 163 is low, but I still would not put a ton of stock in him K’ing over 200 guys, I just don’t see it happening.
back in ‘05 Kazmir was 21 years old and it was his first full year in the majors — and even then, he had a K/9 that was “only” 8.42. in the 350 MLB innings since then, it’s been over 10. i agree that 200K/year is special, but i’d be extremely surprised to see Kazmir below 185 Ks if he pitches a full year (~200 IP) in 2008. to me dropping his K/9 from over 10 to less than 9 indicates a 2008 slump, which is not the impression i got from the article (which was well-written, by the way). thanks for the response!
First off I appreciate all the feedback. I just don’t see him maintaining his elite numbers as a 20 something in the AL east when they Yanks will surely retool and the Sox are tops in the bigs. The AL has a ton of great (GREAT) lineups. I understand there is little to base this on but I strongly feel that he is headed for an off year. Seems like a “sexy” pick at this point.
Not that I condone this sort of activity, but if something seems like a “sure thing” it probably isn’t.
If Johan signs with the Mets do you see him as the best pitcher in the National League? Or do you still give the nod to Peavy?
I know people are drafting Peavy and Santana around the time in drafts, but Santana if most definitely the better pitcher.
I would expect Santana to be better than Peavy. I’d put Johan’s new #s at (19, 2.34, 1.04, 250) His K’s could get even higher considering the auto K at every 9 spot.
No one could be higher on Jamie Shields than me, but I really doubt he’ll win 14-16 games in the AL East. He could have done it last year but the bullpen blew it for him over and over again. Percival will make the ‘pen better, but Jamie is still better off finishing it off himself.