This Is Another Call To Arms: NL Starters
Jan 24th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
Part two of last week’s look around at the young starting pitching landscape is here. This time we will tackle the NL…
Jake Peavy - (18, 3.11, 1.21, 237) - Still a youngster (26) in a great park with great stuff. He doesn’t suffer much on the road, in fact it’s better (10-1 vs 9-5). He made 34 starts and is over the injuries from ‘06 completely. Look for another dominant campaign from Peavy.
John Maine - (13, 4.32, 1.43, 174) - Miserable second half with a 5.53 ERA post all-star. I am a heavy believer in momentum and the Mets had very little down the stretch. That being said, I wouldn’t put much stock in him returning to his April form (4.0, 1.35).
Dan Haren - (19, 3.21, 1.29, 170) - Arizona won’t be as friendly as Oakland was, unless you consider the lesser hitters he will be seeing at the plate. Look for better numbers in general, but relatively consistent with Oakland. Arizona was a strange team last year with the run differential.
Brandon Webb - (17, 3.27, 1.21, 180) - I don’t see Arizona being as good as they were last year. The rest of his numbers should remain relatively consistent. He is 28, and has been around long enough to withstand the rising of the times. Haren is a nice compliment, and some friendly competition is always nice between two aces. (just ask San Diego)
Oliver Perez - (12, 4.70, 1.73, 190) - I really don’t understand how he got to 15 wins last year. His best month was July and he sat because of a sore back for the end of it and never recovered to his “old” form. He still has a lot of control issues as well. Regardless, someone is sure to waste a pick or a few extra dollars on this guy, don’t let it be you.
Carlos Zambrano - (18, 3.43, 1.30, 192) - His numbers are worse at home (as expected, Wrigley is a hitter’s home). His home numbers weren’t bad, they just weren’t the totals you’d expect if you didn’t look at the splits (or read this paragraph). He is very emotional on the bump, which carries over from start to start more than you’d think. April, May :: 5.77, 4.72. June, July :: 2.53, 1.39. When he’s hot, he’s hot, and when he’s away… he’s hot.
Brett Myers - (16, 4.12, 1.39, 190) - Myers has never had trouble K’ing guys. He struggled as a starter last year and was moved to the closer role where he found his groove. When healthy he was a top 3-5 closer. He has dominant stuff and belongs in the rotation in my opinion. He is only 27, and already has been a starter, a reliever, and a closer. The man knows how to pitch, and he will figure out a way to get into the second or third tier of fantasy players again this year.
Cole Hamels - (20, 3.21, 1.14, 204) - I see a big year in his future. 2007 was his first full year in the bigs and he was great. He only made 28 starts because of an elbow problem, which is a little red flag, but the upside of picking him is too big to pass on. He has great command, lives on the outside corner, and depends on his fastball. He is on a young team with a lot of talent behind him and supporting him at the plate.
Tim Lincecum - (13, 4.41, 1.41, 189) - Lincecum is only 23 years old. He is going to be great, and very soon, but this year he is still learning. He was undrafted and has only been around the league once. Usually the second and third time around teams will have him scouted and make him work harder. You have to assume there was significantly less reading material out there on him since no one bothered to draft him in the 1039 rounds of the draft.
Chris Young - (17, 3.21, 1.34, 201) - Very high K/9 last year and that was injury plagued. His averages were off the charts good for a long time before he dropped off. If he can stay healthy he can return to his pre all-star stuff (8-3 with 99Ks). Even after the break, his average against was lower than before. He just gave up more long balls and lost a lot of command. He has 36 BB both pre and post ASB, but 103 IP pre and 69 IP post. That’s will happen when you have a back issue all second half.
Rich Hill - (13, 3.99, 1.41, 180) - After a great start he plateaued with average numbers. Not bad for the 27 year old. Consistency is key, and that is what Hill will give you. Home and Away is about equal, but again, both are very average. Not a whole lot of risk here as long as you have realistic expectations about what you are getting.
I’m aware I left a few guys out, I thought these guys would be the toughest to place in your rankings. As always, I do take requests both by comment and by email. Thanks for reading and the feedback.

Tim Lincecum Correction! He was not undrafted. He was picked in the 48th round before college and elected not to sign, then was picked in the 42nd round by the Indians. Sorry! (damn you espn.com)
2nd Lincecum correction - he was drafted 10th overall by the Giants.
And I just found this site, so it’s why I’m reading so far back. Bookmarked!
A) actually Tiny Tim signed after he was taken 10th overall by SF out of UW
B) espn.com’s feature pertains to fantasy, not MLB drafts
[…] Dan Haren’s spot can be found in my archives, as I have already projected him after his trade to AZ. […]