Every year it seems like 3B is touted as a deeper position than anything in the latest Paris Hilton sex tapes, while 2B is shallower than, well, Paris Hilton (don’t defend her waxen performance in House of Wax). But maybe it’s time to reconsider.

I’ve examined projections from CHONE, Bill James, ZiPS, CBS, and Marcel (PECOTA’s coming). These models combined with ADP results from expert and mock drafts and rankings (MDC, TSN, CBS, Yahoo, Rotoworld, Krause, our site, et al) provide ammo aplenty for analysis.

The hot corner’s headlined by the sizzling quartet of ARod, Wright, Miggy C, and Ryan Braun — all slated to go in the first 15 picks (20 in savvier leagues) or at inflated auction prices. The next tier isn’t too shabby, with Chipper (whom Baseball Prospectus rates ahead of Braun), ARam, Atkins, and Figgins close in rankings and ADP. But everyone after the Big Three, including Braun, comes with major question marks and significant risk due to injury, age, inexperience, and/or position battles. Conventional wisdom dictates that you take the best player available the first few rounds, but you might end up reaching for a 3B, especially once the top eight are gone (usually by the 6^th round in standard 12-team leagues).

The problem is potential panic once they clear the board. Suddenly the pool doesn’t look quite so bottomless. And value is relative: if you freak out and pick someone too early, he no longer represents value.

Now Mr. Brawny may well produce like a first rounder. Still, last year comprises a relatively small sample size. If he moves as expected to the OF, how will the adjustment affect him? (Bill Hall handled the transition poorly last season, but ironically could be a steal if he regains 3B-eligibility and his 2006 form.) Can Braun sustain his ridiculously high BABIP (.373) and line drive rate (20%) when his contact (just 75%) and BB:K (.26) stats, well, sucked? Can he again flukily avoid a prolonged slump? Most projections suggest some regression to the mean, so expecting numbers as huge as the next Indy Jones flick should be tempered, though a soph season like Prince’s is achievable.

ARam goes off the board between 32 and 55. Despite maintaining a good BA in 2007, his power dropped significantly due to nagging injuries. For what it’s worth, James and CHONE peg him for a 30+/100/100 campaign. Then there’s perennial injury risk, Chipper Jones, floating between 43 and 78. He topped 500 ABs for the first time since 2003; the major projections are in sync, but at age 36 expect DL stints. Garrett Atkins’ projections and ADP are quite consistent; everyone expects a similar season, so he’s being taken at 40–55.

Can Chone Figgins duplicate his play? He’s leaving drafts between the 45^th and 63^rd picks. His usual .290 AVG is likelier; the SBs (and Runs in an improved lineup) are great but you ideally use sluggers at the corners, especially since the number of 30+-homer guys has steadily decreased. Speed from ARod, Wright, and Braun is a bonus; don’t get caught in a power outage.

The 3B landscape gets bleak surprisingly quickly. But don’t reach past that 2^nd tier! Prime example: Mike Lowell. Anyone doubt he enjoyed a career year (leading the Sawx with 120 RBI!!!) in a free-agent walk season? Given 2007’s inflated BABIP and decreased isolated power output, projections average approximately .282/17/77/73/2. Bummer if they’re accurate since he’s usually gone within 8-10 rounds. Plus you should sub him for road games since his splits radically favor Fenway.

Watch Ryan Zimmerman closely in ST. Surgery to repair his broken hamate bone was successful, but wrist injuries take notoriously long to heal, particularly sapping power. Sheff’s 2006 return and DLee’s decline are typical indicators. So modify expectations, though the Nats’ new park should be hitting-friendlier. Shockingly, Adrian Beltre looms as a decent pick. Some fantasy owners still resent him for failing to repeat his monster 2004. But 25 HRs with 80-90 RBI and Runs and double-digit steals aren’t bad with ADP/rankings between 110—139.

An over-hyped, over-matched Alex Gordon burned many owners last year. A comparable is Nick Markakis, who likewise jumped from AA at a young age, building momentum and adjusting to the majors in the second half. We’d expect an elite 5-tool prospect like Gordon to improve his second year, but the jury’s out about how much (projections and ADPs vary wildly); he could provide huge value if you can snag him about 150th (or $6). Josh Fields is another promising youngster playing in an upgraded lineup. He may not crack .260, but expect at least 30 dingers (he hit 18 post-ASB) and flashes of speed he displayed in the minors. Like Gordon he’s all over the place, from 110 to 167.

Hank Blalock’s another trendy pick who could zoom faster than gas prices, especially if he rakes in ST. After losing 2007 to injury/surgery, he’s healthy (as his August-September proved) and still young (the magical 27 breakout year); there’s still the question of his traditional second-half slumps, struggles against lefties, and lousy lineup.

Perennial tease/breakout candidate Edwin Encarnacion, just 25, might finally produce; he hit for a good average and power after his demeaning demotion to AAA last year. Kevin Kouzmanoff might face competition from Chase Headley (though the Padres are auditioning him in the OF), and Petco suppresses his moderate power. Still, ya gotta love his dynamic performance after a pathetic .108/.172/.193 line through May 7. Even better, K no longer stands for Kouz, and though he really mashes lefties, he won’t face a platoon situation. Mark Reynolds intrigues, given conflicting reports about Tracy’s return to form. Unfortunately, an elevated BABIP, stratospheric K rate, and poor plate discipline (he’s particularly vulnerable to sliders) make him a slippery sleeper. James predicts .294/.369/.537/26/86/92 in 490 ABs; others are less optimistic. All going between the 15^th and 20^th rounds, they’re nonetheless better picks as CIs.

Super-prospect Evan Longoria registers on keeper-league radars, but there’s no guarantee he’ll even start Opening Day in the bigs, despite the Rays’ supposed shift of Iwamura to second. And no way of knowing whether he’ll produce à la Braun or Gordon. LaLaLand’s Andy LaRoche is another untested pup who could surprise.

Youk, the Greek God of Walks, is best in OBP leagues. Eric Chavez claims he’s healthy; even so, the As may be the new AAAA team. Troy Glaus had abysmal road splits and he’s moving to a pitchers’ park and a lineup lacking protection. Scott Rolen gains a power boost from Rogers Centre and peace of mind as he and LaRussa stop squabbling like the Spears sisters, but turf doesn’t suit his all-out play, increasing the odds of reinjuring his shoulder. Still, he’s a medium-risk/medium-reward pick around 250/$3.

Desperation plays include Ty Wigginton (better as a MI), new Phillie Pedro Feliz and Joe Crede (pending health and final destination). Avoid Mike Lamb, unloved Brandon Inge, and Fountain of Youth road-trippers Nomar and Mora.

Call 3B a deep position with an asterisk.