Cleaning The Pen: Closer Ranks
Feb 6th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
Obviously all of the following assumes there will be no major injuries to major players. This, of course, never happens. This list is organized by fantasy value NOT job security. I’ll have a brief recap of interesting things at the end.
(CY - Contract Year, NT - New Team, SW - Security Warning)
1 K-Rod LAA (CY)
2 Putz SEA
3 Saito LAD
4 Jenks CWS
5 Papelbon BOS
6 Street OAK
7 Valverde HOU (NT)
8 Nathan MIN (CY for now)
9 Soria KC (SW)
10 Wagner NYM
11 Rivera NYY (SW++)
12 Cordero, Francisco CIN (NT)
13 Wood CHC
14 Hoffman SD (CY)
15 Gregg FLA
16 Lidge PHI (CY, NT)
17 Jones DET (CY, SW)
___________________
18 Corpas COL
19 Soriano ATL
20 Percival TB (NT)
21 Borowski CLE (CY, SW)
22 Gagne MIL (NT, CY)
23 Lyon AZ (SW - Foulke)
24 Aquino BAL (SW!!! Sherrill)
25 Cordero, Chad WAS
26 Winson, CJ TEX (SW)
27 Isringhausen STL (CY)
28 Capps PIT
29 Accardo (BJ Ryan soon)** TOR
30 Wilson, Brian SF (SW)
++ How could they not at least consider grooming Joba?
** Thank God
I’ll spare you the run of the mill projections, there are plenty of places for those. Personally, I like the ones over at fangraphs but that’s just me. Here are some interesting tid bits…
You may notice the line under Todd Jones (17). This is representing the “don’t waste a pick on these guys” line. Jones is the last guy with “positive value”. As there always is in drafts, there will be a closer run. If you can avoid over-drafting them and still end up with 2 top 17 guys you’ll be far better off than someone who took K Rod and two guys below the belt.
Some people put more stock in the “contract year” theory than others. I recommend reading Dayn Perry’s Chapter 5-3 from “Baseball Between The Numbers” before you arrive at any sort of drafting strategy based on the contract year theory. The brief summary says that you should put more stock in a player’s age and track record than expecting a break out (and break the bank) contract year simply because they are going to be on the market. Hence, a 27 year old K Rod who fits into every possible category (young, talented, and on a good team) being ranked first.
I see 5 tiers in this year’s closers. The first (elite) tier is fantasy elite, not real life. Saito will have better averages than save totals, while the reverse is probably true for Putz. (both relatively brilliant) Tier two has the promises for solid averages and save totals without putting up astounding numbers at either spot. Tier three highlights those who will put up a good amount of saves because of their team (see Jones DET) or a good statistical performance in spite of their team (see Gregg FLA) Tier four should be reserved for later round “steals” in deep leagues, and tier five is for those who panic. Although BJ Ryan wouldn’t be the worst flyer to take since he is due back relatively soon and …. is BJ Ryan.
If there is any specific team you would like me to get into the situation for, please leave a comment, and I will get to it as soon as I can.
WHY IS EVERYTHING CROSSED OUT
sorry, there was an html code problem that I missed
How is Capps that low? He’s a good pitcher with no one challenging him at all. I’d put him right behind Hoffman. Same goes for Izzy and Soriano.
Interesting ranking, Tyler, thanks… But Corpas not worth drafting? He’s clearly the closer, with Fuentes as a lefty best suited to setup anyway. The one knock is Corpas’s merely average K/9, but it improved in the second half. Soriano could clean up (I don’t mean mop up, LOL) if healthy. There’s still a chance Pena could claim the job in AZ, so that’s a double SW
Wilson has Benoit and Guardado to worry about… Wood’s a huge injury risk and has Howry and Marmol right there. Street could be traded in the ongoing As fire-sale, and even end up in setup (likelier to happen with Chad Cordero, but still a possibility)
Mainly though, I think Corpas and Soriano are great targets if they fall to the 15th round (or can be had for a few bucks). I’d rank both ahead of Wood IMHO
P.S. Interesting article from Hardball Times:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/using-leverage-index-to-identify-closer-candidates/
This list is organized by fantasy value NOT job security.
(right from the opening paragraph)
Also (regarding Capps), the Pirates are miserable, he won’t get too many chances. His K averages aren’t as high as most closers (k/9 of 7.29) and he gives up a lot of HR. Which is not the best quality for a closer to have.
Izzy’s save #s have declined every year since 2004, (dropping from 47 to 32) and he is already 35. I am not really ready to pick him with both of those trends. I guess getting older isn’t exactly a trend, but when your numbers decline like your aging it is.
Soriano’s BS:S ratio in the last 2 years is 9:13 Nothing to be proud of. He will have a chance to prove his worth, but in a market like Atlanta if he isn’t getting the job done they will definitely look elsewhere. (I don’t know where elsewhere until Gonzo gets back, but that’s why I don’t run the Braves)
Hope that helped. Thanks for the feedback.
Comment 6 was for Yoda (haha)
Jordan, thats an interesting read, thank you.
Wood also is probably slightly ranked too high. I think the cubs are going to surprise people this year. Lets say that has something to do with it.
regardless of job security, Capps, Izzy and Soriano will post much better fantasy numbers than guys like Todd Jones, Borowski. Oh well.
I personally think that Brian Wilson is going to be the surprise of the year. Yes the Giants may not get many opportunities, but a K/9 rate just over 8 is not unthinkable. I’ll take 25-30 saves, and decent peripherals in the 18th round.
SF bullpen is a complete mess. There whole team is pretty much. And Jones will scrape together 40+ saves purely because DET will give him about 50 chances.
Borowski is going to lose his job quickly (1-2 months), they’re used to Sick Wick getting it done, and CLE is not the most patient of fan bases.
I’m confused. You said the rankings have nothing to do with job security but you mention that Boro is ranked there due to his job security.
Also, Jones is a terrible pitcher at best right now. He has an abysmal K rate and WHIP. He is 39 and his skills have been deteriorating. Fast.
I do like Brian Wilson quite a bit. He really turned things around in 07 and looks like a great bargain.
They are not ranked by JS but if you lose your job you won’t be much help as a closer, so security surely is a factor. That was all I’m saying. Thats also why Wilson is so low, last season they turned to Ty and Hennessey to save games. Apparently they are going with him this year but obviously they are ok going to the other two.
Borowski is not the best pitcher in the bullpen. I think people are going to realize that quickly. Betancourt is better, and I think before long it’ll look like Fultz-Boworski-Raffi 7-8-9 for the Tribe. Giving Borowski less value as a closer.
This is the worst closer ranking I have ever seen.
Everyone here is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul.
I guess my point is that you can’t possibly have a closer ranking (or any other ranking for that matter) without job security and injuries as part of the equation. Just having a role, especially for a closer which has an entire scoring category dedicate to it, is HUGE.
J - That was extremely creative and original, and I am so glad you have added such insight to our discussion.
yoda - There is JS involved in the rankings, it just isnt a list based on JS. As I have stated multiple times.
Ty, don’t you think that with the mets pitching staff and their line up that they will beable to offer wagner more oppertunities for saves and that he should be listed highe on the list.
The ranking doesn’t make any sense. First you said JS is not a factor. Now you are saying that it is. Oh well, hopefully the ADP rankings are better as it was pretty helpful last year.
especially over Valverde and Nathan or even Street unless he is traded
I have nothing to do with ADP, thats average draft position. Also, I have no place in creating that, it is statistical analysis of where players are going in mock drafts.
This list is organized by fantasy value NOT job security. I guess I should have said not only job security. It is obviously a factor, it just isn’t a list of who is most secure. (if that makes sense)
“Borowski is not the best pitcher in the bullpen. I think people are going to realize that quickly. Betancourt is better, and I think before long it’ll look like Fultz-Boworski-Raffi 7-8-9 for the Tribe. Giving Borowski less value as a closer.”
While I don’t disagree that Borowski is likely the first closer to lose his job this year, if he does there is absolutely ZERO chance he will ever get near the 7th or 8th inning. You are forgetting about Masahide Kobayashi who the Tribe just picked up from Japan, Jensen Lewis who pitched well for the Tribe in the playoffs and Rafael Perez - who took over as the dominant lefty over Fultz last year.
As for Capps, Soriano and Corpas - your advice to not waste a pick on these guys is just wrong - they all have excellent skill sets as well as clear holds on the job - and ANY one of them will be a better pick than Kerry Wood - who will very likely not even be the closer over the much younger and better Carlos Marmol.
As for Joba - the reason is simple and two-fold. 1) He has 4+ pitches and projects to be a Dominant Stater. 2) They are not the Red Sox
I don’t understand the purpose of this ranking. To be honest I don’t understand the purpose of ranking closers at all. In your previous post you said adjust ranking players for your unique leagues and their stats. What league is this for? (rhetorical question) Is there an emphasis on totals or averages? It was asked before, but why is Capps the 28th best closer this has to be a mistake. Greg Aquino is 24th for chrissake. There were some good ideas in this post, but some terrible flaws cannot be ignored. Basically its a ranking post and a confusing and poor one at that.