The Bargain Bin Team
Feb 8th, 2008 by Joshua Bakal
Whether you’re rounding out your fantasy roster with quality bench players, or you’re simply trying to recover from your friend’s drafting “strategy” after you were running late and had him pick on your behalf, success in the latter part of the draft is crucial to remaining competitive throughout the season. You never know if your early round picks will stay healthy and perform at the caliber you projected on draft day. When fantasy busts emerge, you need a contingency player who can step in and perform at a level you can at least tolerate. With that in mind, I’ve compiled a position-by-position breakdown of potential targets who can be had late in the 2008 draft, players who may allow you to hold off on certain positions because of their strength as a fall-back option. Some of these players may actually exceed the fantasy output of their early round counterparts, and some may not even get drafted at all in shallow leagues. That being said, I present to you my “Bargain Bin” team of 2008:
Richie Sexson (1B): Last year was by far the worst season Sexson has had this decade, with the exception of the 23 games he played for Arizona in 2004. If you take away that season, you’d notice that he went into 2007 with at least 100 RBIs and 29 HRs every year since 2001, while playing in no less than 156 games each year. His .205 batting average last year landed him in the fantasy and real-life doghouse, to the point where Ben Broussard overtook him at first base. Now, with Broussard landing in Texas, Sexson will enter the 2008 season returning as Seattle’s undisputed first baseman, and there’s no way he can do worse than his 2007 batting average. He’s only 33 years old, so there’s no reason to think he can’t rebound and hit 30 HR/100 RBI while batting close to his .263 career average.
Honorable Mentions: Jason Giambi and Ryan Garko
Ty Wigginton (2B): Technically, he’ll be manning the hot corner for the Astros this season, but that’s of no great concern to fantasy owners, who’ll be able to make use of his eligibility at first base and, more importantly, second base. Hitting in the midst of a good Houston offense, he should have plenty of opportunities to drive in base runners while playing half his games at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. He should be good for more than 20 homeruns while batting around .275, which may not sound breathtaking, but it’s steady, and the position flexibility will grant you additional roster space to swing for the fences on high-risk sleepers and prospects.
Honorable Mentions: Akinori Iwamura and Kelly Johnson
Julio Lugo (SS): Like Wigginton, Lugo benefits greatly from a lineup chock full of veterans and youngsters who are quite skilled with the bat. Although he suffered a disappointing first season in Boston, he did finish better than he started. He had a .280 batting average following the all-star break, and went 5 for 13 in the World Series. One thing he did all season, though, was run. He swiped 33 bases in 2007, and I’d expect more of the same in 2008, with around 10 homers thrown in for good measure. As long as he shakes off the 2007 jitters of trying to perform up to his hefty contract in a demanding baseball city, 2008 should be a prosperous year for Lugo. He’s not going anywhere, and the shortstop job is his, which may not be the case for Felipe Lopez, who gets edged out here because of his uncertain role on a weaker team.
Honorable Mentions: Felipe Lopez and Jhonny Peralta
Edwin Encarnacion (3B): The third base position has the largest array of infield talent that can be had late in the draft and leave fantasy owners pleasantly surprised. Adrian Beltre’s stock is on the rise, thanks to his best season since joining the Mariners, and he’s someone that might get overlooked if you’re lucky. Melvin Mora and 3B-eligible teammate Aubrey Huff have had very productive years in the past that may get revisited without warning, as is the case with bounce back candidate Hank Blalock in Texas. A change of scenery may reenergize the careers of Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus, who were swapped for each other in a St. Louis-Toronto trade two weeks ago. However, the most intriguing value might be Cincinnati’s Edwin Encarnacion, who has youth on his side, along with a small ballpark and one of the most powerful lineups in the league. His demotion to the minors last May was truly a wakeup call for him, and he returned to the majors better than ever, even posting a RISP average of .360 and hitting .337 the final two months of the season. He’s focused and ready heading into this season.
Honorable Mentions: Scott Rolen and Hank Blalock
Ivan Rodriguez (C): Yes, he’s logged a lot of innings on those knees, and he’s not getting any younger, but he shouldn’t fall off the radar completely. He has continually been a solid offensive catcher to go with his stellar defensive abilities, boasting a .303 career average. Pudge is still the guy in Detroit, and will get his 500 Abs in a superior lineup that now includes Miguel Cabrera, whose acquisition from the Marlins cost the Tigers backup catcher Mike Rabelo. Brandon Inge may get some work in as a catcher again, but that decision may have little to do with his future role in Detroit, and a lot to do with upping his value for trade talks. If Inge performs adequately at catcher in Spring Training and finds an everyday role because of it, he would make for an excellent grab as well.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Inge and Jason Varitek
Melky Cabrera (OF): There is a lot Melky needs to improve upon, such as his inconsistency and streakiness, to be worthy of a fantasy roster spot, but he’ll have the chance to make it happen. The Yankees don’t really have a viable alternative to siphon playing time from him in center, since Johnny Damon has become better suited for left field. He has made significant strides to prove to the team that he can handle a full season, and he has emerged as the best fielder and arm the Yankees have in their outfield. He’s only 23 and his energy and enthusiasm was cited as one of the reasons the Yankees managed to rally late in the season and grab a playoff spot. He should continue to learn and grow as a player, and he’ll likely improve upon his stats in all the relevant fantasy categories, as he has surprising power and speed that is just beginning to emerge.
Honorable Mentions: Raul Ibanez and Wily Mo Pena
Greg Maddux (SP): There are a lot of good pitchers out there for the taking, and waiting until the end of the draft to round out your rotation will probably be the wisest thing you can do this year to free up early picks. In fact, you can have a future Hall-of-Famer like Maddux for nothing; he may not get drafted at all in some leagues. Imagine that, a pitcher in a spacious park who throws 200 innings each year and gets around 15 wins for his reliable efforts. You won’t get the strikeout totals, but he keeps his WHIP and ERA low, a trait of a control pitcher who is also one of the smartest in the league. You might also consider taking a chance on a youngster, like Jon Lester, Joba Chamberlain, or Matt Garza, or one of the pitchers returning from injury, whether it’s Francisco Liriano, Rich Harden, or Mark Prior, who has a mentor in Maddux with the Padres and might turn heads as he essentially plays for his career in 2008.
Honorable Mentions: Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland
Matt Capps (RP): I have a certain appreciation for Pittsburgh closers. First it was Mike Williams, then it was Mike Gonzales, and now it’s Matt Capps. They provide a good source of saves to go with solid peripheral numbers, while playing in relative obscurity for a small-market team. Also, they tend to go into seasons knowing they are uncontested for the role, racking up saves immediately without concern for a closer-by-committee approach. Because it’s the Pirates, there will naturally be a lack of save opportunities for Capps to capitalize on. However, he will make the most of what he gets, and it’s not unreasonable to expect around 30 saves with a respectable ERA and WHIP, plus about a strikeout per inning. Ideally, I draft closers like they’re “The Three Bears,” finding a “papa bear” (such as Nathan, K-Rod, or Papelbon), a “mama bear” (Isringhausen or either Cordero), and a “baby bear” to round out my RP core. As far as lower-tier closers go, Capps is just right.
Honorable Mentions: Rafael Soriano and Tony Pena
i wanted to mention Aaron Hill. No one says anything about this kid. Last year he hit 17 HR’s. The only reason he doesn’t get ANY press is he doesn’t steal bases. He’s going late to undrafted and I think I read somewhere Ron Shandler predicted he leads the Blue Jays in HR’s (yes alex rios is on that team). I don’t know, but I think i can spend a 20th pick in a draft on someone with that potential upside.
Hill is a solid pick in the 20th or so round. Whether or not he is selected has more of a bearing on the roster size of the league. He was drafted in every mock that I did where a MI slot is required. He was selected in the 17th round in the mock draft that we did here at FGD. However, I agree that he is a great value that deep in the draft.
I agree with considering Hill that late in the draft. He will be 26 next month, so his prime years are approaching. While I’ve discouraged chasing the career year in my article on catchers, looking for a repeat of Hill’s 2007 season and being disappointed is a lot different than, say, looking for a repeat of Russell Martin’s 2007 season and being disappointed. Both of these players represent possible fantasy options at weak positions, but the risk is far greater should Martin falter in 2008, as he may be drafted in excess of 15 rounds earlier than Hill. When the 20th round of a draft approaches and you have your eye on a 2B like Hill, go with your instincts, since he won’t set you back much if he doesn’t pan out.
Thanks for the comments and keep them coming!