2008 Average Draft Position and Scarcity Reports
Feb 9th, 2008 by winabango
Version 2 has been posted here: 2008 Version 2 w/ scarcity reports
The day has finally arrived! The 2008 Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position and Scarcity Reports are now available. This year’s version has 554 players ranked by average draft position data that has been collected from 11 mock drafts. I have also included projections for over 500 players, which I developed from comparing three projection systems (PECOTA, CBS, Bill James).
The best part is that I am offering this data for FREE! No, that is not a typo. All that I ask is that you tell everyone that you know (except your league mates) about this great resource. Post it on every message board that you know. Write to every site that you go to regularly, and tell them that they should link to it. If you had great success last year because of the information, please post that in the comments section. I have done the work, now I need your help in promotion.
Without further delay, the ultimate draft tool:
2008 Average Draft Position Version 1
2008 ADP and Scarcity Report Instructions
Remember, you can adjust the Scarcity Reports to your league settings. That is why I have created this as an editable excel spreadsheet.
Keep in mind that this is version 1. I will doing more drafts over the next month, and will release an updated version in the beginning of March. Now on to mock drafting, and adding more great content here at Fantasy Gameday.
kelly,
i am indebted to you…again
Hey, this is awesome, thanks for the work you have done on both of these things, one question I have for you are your ADP based on expert, or averager person mock drafts?
Actually, any draft that I could find. So to answer your question, both kinds. The draft that we did on this site is in there.
What type of scoring system(s) are used for the included mock draft data? All types? Mostly 5×5 roto? Any HTH points league drafts in there?
It does give you a good feel for player values (amongst the general population), but people still need to do their homework as it pertains to their own league scoring systems. Points leagues with no negatives for k’s and BA value a guy like Adam Dunn a full round or two more than most roto leagues as an example.
Thanks for the hard work, it’s a nice compliment to my own data…
most are standard 5×5 roto, but there are a few H2H ones in there as well. Whatever I could find I put in there.
hmmm, not really sure how helpful this is if you combine different league types into one sheet. player values differ immensely depending on league size, roster composition, and scoring system, which is being ignored here. especially if any points leagues are included, since rankings are entirely dependent on the point system, which i’m sure is different for every single league
There are no points style mock drafts entered into it. Keep in mind that this is an “average” of where players are selected. These are not rankings, and yes where you take players will change depending on your league scoring. That is why you can adjust the Scarcity Report to match your league settings and personal rankings.
Thanks a lot for this. You clearly put a lot of work into it and its paid off nicely…Thanks again…
What do the * and ^ signify? Lovely work. Used this report last year, along with some other info. Thanks!
AJ,
* - indicates a player with multiple position eligibility in league where 10 games are the minimum to qualify
^ - indicates that the player was a top 50 prospect in 2007 or is a top 50 prospect in 2008
Glorious thanks.
Saw that in the “instructions” btw. Sorry for that…
Thanks very much - and great work!
Thanks! I am sending/linking this to everyone I know.
Just let you know that last season I took your advices in 2007 ADP report and won the league champ for the first time in 5 years! I plan on using it again (maybe V2) and skip all other scout reports. Thanks for your great work!
Any chance the raw data could be available, I would be interested to review the various drafts that you have input into the spreadsheet. If you can see my e-mail, and can send me that data, I would like that.
Any thought of standard deviation consideration?
Thank you.
Hi Kelly,
Thanks again for this wonderful draft tool. I also used your spreadsheet last year, though I tweaked it a little.
I’d suggest using median draft position instead of ADP because there is likely to be immense variability between the drafts that you utilize. The median statistic is less affected by extreme outliers than mean.
I won my league last year, and I owe most of it to a dynamite draft I was able to pull off because if a hardcore statistical analysis of THIS report. I was able to pinpoint about 3 players per round that would be available at my pick. This is an amazing tool. I spent some time looking for this website this weekend (I had forgotten where I found it!) and I’m psyched to have stumbled on this. Thank you!
ZachPhilly - I can send it to you.
Bryan - tweaking to your preference is the whole idea. I do the Scarcity reports differently depending on my league.
In all honesty, almost every mock draft is a 5×5 roto style draft. I have also noticed that the first half of the draft does not change all of that much from one draft to another. The places where I notice variations is in the middle rounds where OF and SP are being taken. Once you get up to 20 drafts entered, variations (as much as 10 rounds) do not cause a major fluctuation in ADP.
Thanks again you guys… I think this won my my league last year!
One question… Carlos Guillen at SS. He still has eligibility there in yahoo. Is his ADP influenced by being a 1b?
I do believe that the multiple position eligibility is inflating Guillen’s value. He is aging, and he has aging skills. I do not think he is a top 10 1B player by any means. Nor do I think he is in the top 10 when it comes to shortstops. He seems to be drafted as if he is.
I found this very helpful in preparing my draft strategy.
first i would like to say thank you cor this is amazing. my question is in our draft we get to keep players under 3 years for 3 years. how should i adjust you ADP?
I would go to each position and identify those players that qualify to be kept. Put something like a # after their names. The look at where they are ranked by ADP at their position. Then determine whether or not you would use a pick in a higher round to acquire them. Move them up the Tier rankings according to your preference. It is a lot of work, but that kind of preparation will give you a good start to the year.
Great stuff! Will you be posting an updated ADP at all?
Yes. I am already half way through version 2, and have made a few improvements to it. I am expecting to release it next weekend. I am hoping to have AL and NL only scarcity reports posted this weekend.
This is great. Thanks
Thank you very much again. It is an awesome tool which helped me greatly last year. Of course, I share the link with no one in my league
. Do you know when we can expect version 2? (Last year I spent time tweaking and tailoring v1 — and then version 2 came out.)
[…] Time out for shameless pimping: Check out Kelly’s composite of ADPs and several sites’ projections when creating your spreadsheets. […]
Thanks for the draft summaries. They’re helpful. Can you post a list of all the mock drafts that you used in your report (either in the Instructions or as a post)?
Good job. Question: can the worksheets be configured for by me for only AL or NL ONLY formats (without having to edit out the players from the league you don’t need). Thanks