It’s no secret that good catching is hard to find, for MLB general managers and their fantasy counterparts alike. Many of us are heading into this year’s draft season wondering if Geovany Soto and Justin Towles will enjoy a breakout into the catching position’s elite, and very small, group. And recently, what’s not to like? Both were invited to the 2007 Futures game. Both were called up to the bigs later in the year and greeted the pitching with batting averages over .350. Clearly, they belong on everyone’s radar.

Towles is expected to be Houston’s #1 catcher this year according to both GM Ed Wade and Manager Cecil Cooper in an Astros.com article February 1^st. By letting Jason Kendall leave, and not signing another notable catcher, the Cubs made their intentions for Soto clear. Still, it was nice of Lou Pinella to state that Soto is expected to start Opening Day (Cubs.com, 1/19/08). I expect Brad Ausmus to catch Roy Oswalt’s starts and loom as a slightly larger threat to Towles’ playing time than Henry Blanco is to Soto.

Baseball America likes both players a great deal, rating Soto the #2 prospect in the Cubs organization and crowning Towles #1 for the Astros. Both were praised for their defensive abilities as well as their bats. ESPN’s Keith Law lists Soto as his #2 catching prospect in baseball with Towles coming in at #4. His main concerns about Towles centered around his smaller frame (6’2”, 175 lb.) and below average arm. Nagging type injuries (finger surgery, tendonitis) forced Towles to miss playing time in 2005 and 2006. Soto has a more solid frame at 6’1”, 230 lb. and a cleaner health history, so he gets a small advantage for durability.

Each player’s 2007 major league stats, while impressive, are too small in sample size to draw large conclusions. One aspect that intrigued me about Towles was his one strikeout in 40 big league at bats. For his minor league career he struck out at a 17% clip, better than Soto’s 22%, but nothing unique. Soto has over 1,000 more minor league at bats than Towles, including parts of three seasons at the AAA level. Towles has the better minor league batting resume, with career advantages in AVG, OBP, and SLG. He maintained a .300 AVG through 907 at bats with .393/.470 OBP/SLG. Soto, however, greatly exceeded all his prior performance in 2007. He hit .353, homering 26 times, driving in 109, and posting a whopping OPS of 1.076. We can expect regression from both, but Soto is more seasoned, and has had the most impressive single year.

A few of the experts have weighed in with their thoughts for the upcoming year. Rotoauthority.com ranks Towles #7 and Soto #8 for all fantasy catchers. They are valued higher than Ivan Rodriguez, Bengie Molina, Ramon Hernandez, and Saltalamacchia. Towles’ rating is bolstered by his speed, he will likely steal 10 -15 bases in a full season. ZiPS has an AVG/OBP/SLG line on Soto of .284/.342/.483 with 20 HR and 73 RBI in 458 AB. Towles chimes in at .250/.322/.379, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 388 AB. Towles’ AB seem on the low side, but Soto enjoys a clear edge here.

Finally, we look at average draft position so far. Soto, as of February 1^st, is being grabbed at spot 161, a 12.5% rise over the past month. Towles is positioned at 229, but rocketing up at a 30.2% clip. Evidence suggests if you want either one you will not be able to wait until the last round. The biggest knock I can find against Soto is his draft position dictates that you would need to pick him over Jhonny Peralta, Josh Fields, Jeremy Hermida and Edwin Encarnacion. Right now, batters behind Towles include players like Richie Sexon, Evan Longoria, and Bill Hall.

It’s a tough call to make, both playing in the same division, in lineups with quality hitters. Towles has been steadier throughout his pro career, but Soto has more experience and may have taken his game to the next level. I’m planning on taking either one I can get after pick 200, but I don’t feel comfortable reaching any higher.