Prospect Watch - Nick Adenhart
Feb 17th, 2008 by winabango
I finally have the time to just sit down and write. After all the work of the ADP spreadsheet, and developing a league constitution, I am ready to get back down to business. Today, I would like to do the next installment of “Prospect Watch” and focus in on a young right-handed pitcher in the Angels farm system: Nick Adenhart.
During November and December, which feels like an eternity ago, Nick Adenhart was being mentioned as a key piece of the rumored Miguel Cabrera trade to the Angels. So who is this kid, and why were the Marlins looking into acquiring him? For 2008 Baseball America has him ranked as the #2 prospect in the Angel’s farm system. Now that is incredible when you consider that the Angels selected Adenhart with the 423th pick (14th rd.) in the 2004 amateur draft. In actuality, the Angels were willing to look past the Tommy John surgery that he required that year and most teams were not. Despite the possible injury concerns, Baseball Prospectus rated Adenhart as a five star prospect. MiLB.com has him ranked 18th overall in their top 50 rankings.
Most scouts agree that Adenhart has three plus pitches, but as any young pitcher, lacks some control. Baseball Prospectus states:
He’s tall and long-limbed, has smooth mechanics, and pitches primarily off his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and features good movement. His changeup is a second plus offering, with excellent arm action and late fade. His curveball has sharp break at times, flashing the potential to be a future third plus offering.
Everything that I have read about Nick Adenhart indicates that he is a “slow starter” and that he doesn’t get into a groove until the second or third inning. In fact 17 of his 65 walks occurred during the first inning. In fact his WHIP increased from 1.28 in 2006 to 1.46 in 2007. His strikeout rate of 6.82 is solid for a 20 year-old pitching in Double-A. The stat that stands out the most is his HR Rate. A pitcher is considered to have a good home run rate if it is at 1.00 or less. Adenhart posted a solid 0.41 rate in 2007. That is an impressive number at his age.
So apparently the kid can pitch, not that you didn’t already know that. OK, well maybe you didn’t. So when is he going to make an impact for fantasy owners? Baseball America projects him to be a solid #2 starter. The Angels have a lot of good pitching in the rotation at the major league level. Considering his propensity to start slow, I don’t think he will be brought up to pitch out of the bullpen. He is scheduled to start 2008 in Triple-A, but could be a mid-season call-up. So unless he or another starter that is already in the rotation is traded, he has no draft value in 2008. That is, of course, unless your league has a minor league system. However, injuries can change the whole story.
Nick Adenhart is a solid young starter that will have more fantasy impact in the future rather than now. With that being said, watch for him if he is called up during the season, as he may provide decent depth to your pitching staff if you have been ravaged by injuries during the season.