On December 15th of last year the Dodgers won the services of Japanese right hander Hiroki Kuroda. Multiple other major league teams expressed serious interest in him, should fantasy GMs do the same?

For the purposes of this article, I’m assessing Kuroda’s value in a standard 12 team mixed league, the most popular option seen on Mock Draft Central. Obviously, he is worth a roster spot in NL only, and leagues of 15+ teams.

Kuroda’s throwing motion is typical of, but less exaggerated than, other Japanese pitchers we have seen. He hesitates before coming forward out of the windup and has a reasonably high leg kick. However, he does not appear to have any “quirk” that would throw hitters out of rhythm. He throws a low to mid 90s fastball, a mid 80s slider and a low to mid 80s splitter. The similarity in velocity combined with his strikeout rate suggests good lineups could drive up his pitch count in a hurry.

His health appears to be a non issue, even taking into account an elbow procedure after the 2006 season. Currently 33, he has pitched at least 144 innings every year since 2000, reaching 200 in 2003 and 2005.

Kuroda’s most statistically impressive year was 2006, which was highlighted by a 1.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Last year many of his peripheral stats were in line with his career totals. The two areas of largest improvement in 2006 were walks issued and home runs allowed. The 2007 season saw these numbers rise to around their previous levels, and his ERA was back to 3.56 and WHIP to 1.21. Control has been one of his strong suits, many seasons striking out three batters for every one he walked. Strikeouts per nine innings are steady at 6.5-7.0/9.

The real question is; what will these numbers become stateside? We have seen six noteworthy Japanese starting pitchers come to the US: Matsuzaka, Irabu, Igawa, Ishii, Yoshii, and Nomo. Jeff, from the Mariners blog lookoutlanding.com, did the math and noted that only Nomo prevented his walk and home run rate from significantly increasing. Strikeout rate among most was steady, but Kuroda is not a positive contributor in that category anyway. If this pattern holds, Kuroda is unlikely to keep his ERA under 4.50.

Landing with the Dodgers is far from the worst place for a pitcher, but the home field is not playing as well for pitchers recently. Park Factor rated Dodger Stadium as the 12th most favorable for hitters in 2007, the 10th most favorable in 2006. The anecdotal thinking that LA is a pitchers park comes from the years 2001-2005 when it never measured greater than 25th most favorable for hitters. I’m not sure what to think of this trend, but its safe for now to stop classifying Dodger Stadium in the same category as Petco. The NL West plays like a wash, San Diego and San Francisco project as weak offenses, Arizona and Colorado as above average.

Kuroda’s ratios don’t figure to help any fantasy team. His strikeout rate projects as average, at best. Even pitching well, I don’t believe he pitches deep enough into games to get a high win total. Basically, I don’t see him doing anything that justifies ownership. Keep him on your radar for an injury replacement, or for matchups if you are streaming pitchers, but I recommend against making him part of your roster’s foundation.