Every other week I will be breaking down the split stats of a big leaguer. If you have any requests on who I do next leave them in the comments.  I will go on a first come, first serve basis. (Please keep them relevant; I’m not doing Bret Boone.)

There are so many stats that are relevant in fantasy baseball:  ratios, totals, outside factors, and opposition. They are only relevant if you apply them during the season. If the numbers say “don’t start player A against this team at this time” then don’t do it (this is more relevant to roto leagues where it is a marathon not a sprint). In h2h leagues there may be spots when you need a few IP out of player A and can afford to lose some ratio numbers on Sunday, and that’s fine… as long as you go in knowing what you’re going to get.

This week we’re going to look at Cole Hamels, a player I see as poised for a breakout year. As a 24-year-old he does not have a ton of big league numbers to review (2 years). Let’s first focus on the breakdown splits.

Home/Away: Philly is a bad pitcher’s park in terms of HR (by far the worst in terms of HR hit last year). As a high strikeout pitcher this has a smaller effect on his numbers than it could. While pitching 17 less innings at home he gave up one more HR. Still only 13HR/83IP, not bad. On the road however, he posts great HR average 12/100. These are expected numbers of course, since he is pitching in parks where the fences are further back. High K numbers are constant for both home and away outings, which makes sense since the park has little effect on Ks.

Left/Right: These are slightly less useful as far as fantasy implications are concerned, but if a lineup is loaded with lefties or righties then its possible to forecast what is coming. Since there are obviously more righties facing him than lefties we’re going to look at all percentage numbers here. Lefties are doing better off him than righties in every standard average category (avg, slg, obp, ops). 2% of lefties ABs ended in HRs, while 4% of righties went yard. Not a huge difference, considering those numbers are very low. K numbers are vastly different however, lefties K 31% of the time, whereas righties K only 24% of the time. Since he pitches lefty it is not a huge revelation to say he does better against lefties than righties.

Stamina: Some pitchers will come out strong and fade as the game and season progress, others will start by testing the waters and learning to settle down as the game and season progress. Hamels is the later. His ERA and BAA dropped significantly from his first three months to the last three months. His game log reveals that this is not because of the home/away effects. His post break numbers are considerably better than those of his pre-break outings. This could be because he is 24 and still learning at a rapid pace, and it could be because he was not quite atop his game on opening day, but if any pitcher can sustain a sub 210 BAA for half a season it is not a fluke.

If quality starts is a category in your league then Hamels has even greater value. You can expect more QS from him this year. He proved last year that he is a starting pitcher who settles into games and can navigate deep into them. His BAA peeks in the first 30 pitches at .277, 31-60 he posts a better, but still above his average .257, from 61-75 he lowers it to .217. Clearly he will have the ability to go deep and even finish games as he grows as a player.

Clutch: We are going to call clutch by the RISP pitching numbers. Pitchers need to get out of jams to work late into games and pile up those numbers (not to mention save their ERA and W-L). With at least 2 men on his BAA is lower (.200) than it is with the bases empty (.248). He gave up only 4 non solo HRs last year, his other 21 being solo shots. This is very impressive and helpful in a place like Philly. It is a given that he will give some up, but having them hurt less is always a plus. His “Close and Late” numbers are very VERY good as well. (Close And Late - results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.) 0 HR, 1.33 BAA, 1 RBI in 45 ABs.

Comments are always encouraged, thanks for reading.