A few weeks ago I examined the relative depth at 3B, noting the disparity between the top players and the rest of the field—not merely from a talent perspective, but because of their inherent risk due to age, injury, inexperience, and or playing time. Second base holds just as many question marks, yet the situation is more encouraging precisely because it’s traditionally regarded as shallow.

The perception lingers that 3B is deeper than 2B, and perception is everything in fantasy sports (okay, real life too). Given the hot corner’s supposed depth, I look at the glass as half-empty, and the thinner 2B position as half-full regarding risk. Rarely have there been so many potential-laden candidates. Never have there been so many double-digit dinger dynamos (remember when it was just Kent—still defying Father Time, the Bret Boone blow-up doll, and perhaps Robbie Alomar?).

Alliteration aside, the position isn’t the offensive black hole it used to be. Now you’ve got youngsters like Phillips, Upton, Hill, Johnson, Cano, Kinsler, and Uggla who can knock ‘em out of the park. As with any other position, five-cat studs are most desirable and we have three (some would argue Chase is 4.5 since he’s running less). Upton, particularly, has a chance to narrow the gap (though his MI days are over after 2008), as does Phillips (replacing BA with SB).

Time out for shameless pimping: Check out Kelly’s composite of ADPs and several sites’ projections when creating your spreadsheets.

Analyzing the projections (PECOTA, James, Marcel, Chone, ZiPS, etc), ADPs, and especially, rankings (including CBS, Fox, Yahoo, TSN, and ESPN) shows even more uncertainty than 3B. There’s little consensus past Utley. Most do place Upton and Phillips in their own tier just below him. Otherwise it’s as volatile as the Dow Jones, closer than Hillary versus Obama, and fickler than super-delegates.

Experts are wildly divided regarding players’ worth. Fox ranks Aaron Hill 7^th, Yahoo 15^th among second basemen. BP rates Kelly Johnson 4^th, Yahoo 11^th. The splits become even more pronounced in overall rankings. Johnson is 88 according to CBS, 207 on TSN’s chart. Fox’s Harmon and Rotter rank Roberts 29^th and 89^th—on the same site! MLB.com rates Kinsler 39^th, TSN 85^th (up from 91^st last month). CBS ranks Cano 24^th, TSN 86^th (up from 92^nd). As with 3B, some owners might panic and pluck someone too early once Chase, BJ, Brandon, and Brian are off the board, especially newbies who cling to their site’s rankings like shipwrecked passengers to a lifeboat. Don’t let that word, scarcity scare you into drafting a brand name when far better players lie within your grasp. As you can see, there isn’t much difference between the 5^th and 15^th rated players (though be aware of your site’s default rankings).

Indeed, I project at least 15 2Bs earning back their typical auction investment (or draft position). That’s not including Figgins, who’s eligible in leagues with a 5-game minimum. You’ve got three, some would say five, elite 2Bs. You have 2-4 up-and-comers. The worst-case scenario: You’ll end up with a 2B who helps in 2, maybe 3 cats without killing you elsewhere. So you might have to weight your need for power versus speed versus AVG – but you’d do that filling any positional holes in the second half of a draft or auction. The two pitfalls: SD’s Antonelli is the only elite prospective call up at the position, and there’s little beyond the top 20—I’d try to pluck a decent VORP bench candidate so your lineup continues Soros McCrackling.

Don’t sweat 2B. These tiers breaking players down according to perceived and real value (not the same thing!!!!!).

ROBIN WILLIAMS (the gold standard and you pay for it):

• Chase Utley. Boasting the biggest gap between the #1 and #2 players at any position, this model of consistency even improved his strikeout rate and should rake in that lineup and park for years.

DAVE CHAPPELLE (young and chill; great but no bargains)

• Brandon Phillips (rank 15—39). Former top-tier prospect who crashed and burned with Cleveland before Cincy gave him a shot (in the arm). The rest is history—and the future. He didn’t regress last year as experts predicted, is now the magical 27, and having increased his home run rate, is likelier to hit the 75^th percentile or better in projections.
• BJ Upton (19—35). Despite hype for years suggesting he’s old as Kent, Upton’s only 23, and his ceiling is, well I can’t see it. No, he can’t sustain a BABIP of .399, and his K rate of .325 is terrifying, so expect his average to dip. Still, despite his aggressiveness, he demonstrates selectivity (good BB rate, minor league OBP of .391). The only other problem is that he loses his MI eligibility in keepers after this year.

WHOOPI GOLDBERG (top talent but depends on her project—no, NOT Bogus or Made in America… um, the projection)

• Brian Roberts (25—89). Well, you won’t find him in the 7^th round. Kelly’s excellent ADP sheet (link) lists him at 42; I’ve seen him go earlier… and later. Obviously, the oft-rumored move to Chicago would improve his #s. He’s actually ranked #2 by BP and Tim Dierkes, so SABR-rattlers should pounce if he falls past the 4^th round of a 12-team draft.
• Robinson Cano (24—86). Minuses: we like our MIs to RUN, first half struggles. Plusses: Improved walk rate from tragic to merely pathetic boding well for continued BA success, could end up batting as high as 3^rd in potent Yankees lineup, only 24 so doubles should turn into dingers as he matures. Kelly pegs his composite ADP at 62.27; that could be a tad high though he should reach 20/100/100.
• Ian Kinsler (37—88). The ranking extremes aren’t quite as severe, but they reflect mixed feelings about Kinsler’s ultimate upside. No question he’s a perennial 20/20 threat. His HR/FB% and BB% both improved last year. But he must improve against righties (he may drop to 7^th or 8^th against them), avoid swoons like last May, and hit away from Ameriquest (.215 on the road last year). Expect an uptick in BA and power. Should earn Kelly’s 66.55 composite.
• Rickie Weeks (77—140). Everyone’s favorite sleeper/breakout candidate. Just 25, finally fully healthy (for now), amazing second half helping him shatter career marks in all categories but… BA. He hit an empty .327 last August, then tore the cover off the ball (and bases) in September despite a plunge in average. His liner rate declined while his pop up rate surged; fortunately he learned how to take a walk and his groundball rate dropped, suggesting a return to .270ish territory. Weeks is a high-risk/high-reward sleeper whom you shouldn’t snooze on, but nor should you set the alarm. Let someone else salivate in the first eight rounds (except in keepers).

DANE COOK (overrated):

• Dan Uggla (76—99, doesn’t make MLB.com’s top 100). We’ve seen his ceiling; his homers, XBH%, and runs scored rose against expectation, but his BA plummeted. Uggla swings more than: A) Tarzan, B) the shagadelic 60s, C) your idiot boss preparing to tee off, D) Screw’s Al Goldstein, E) all of the above. He could be the Marlin most affected by Cabrera’s departure as he might press, especially if Hermida doesn’t offer protection. Want power and poor BA, opt for Weeks instead who promises speed and upside as well, despite the inherent injury risk.
• Dustin Pedroia (164—199). Kelly’s ADP is at 153.55. That’s what a ROY and October heroics will get you. Dusty’s one of those players who’s better in real life than fantasy ball. He’s always hit for average, so don’t expect a soph slump, and he should score wherever he hits in that potent lineup. Positive sign: 6 SBs after the ASB. If he runs (we know Francona isn’t big on that), his comedian will improve.
• Kaz Matsui (163 to 248). I can’t justify the 184.64 Kelly found. Yes, Minute Maid is a hitters’ haven, but not as much as Coors, and Matsui’s road numbers sucked to put it mildly. Cheap speed, but expect the BA to drop, and possibly a timeshare with Loretta.
• Orlando Hudson (175—281). No longer a classic case of “good glove, no bat” (there’s at least one very bad sexual pun there, but I won’t touch it), he’s had the luck to call hitters’ parks his home, as his road splits indicate. His eye has improved, but beware last year’s inflated BABIP.

RUSSELL PETERS (great accents, sorry, good but flies under the radar):

• Howie Kendrick (84—141). Kendrick a sleeper? Yes, even at Kelly’s 106.45 ADP. He’s climbing though, just like Weeks. Fox’s Harmon bumped him up 84 places in his latest rankings. We know he can hit, though you gotta hate his BB% and OBP. We also expect a tad more power and speed (Scioscia insists he’ll run more) to complement his sweet swing, often compared to Tony Gwynn’s.
• Kelly Johnson (88—207). Even Kelly’s 169.64 ADP is a bargain. He tailed off late last season, but should be stronger the second year removed from TJ surgery. Incredibly patient (13.2 BB%), won’t platoon with Escobar (his numbers are solid against lefties), has legit 20-HR power, can swipe 12-15 bags, just turned 26. Should be a top-10, even top-6 performer; take him before Pedroia and Polanco.
• Aaron Hill TOR (82—200). My jaw dropped when I saw 264.91 in Kelly’s ADP report. This guy’s the poster boy for depth at 2B! The power spike was for real and, unlike Ugly, he maintained his fine average. Love the 47 doubles, which could translate into more taters since he’s just turning 26. Plus he hits in a potentially stacked lineup (the only question is where), especially if Rolen’s shoulder holds up and Overbay recaptures his stroke after a hand injury sapped him. Hmmm, could post numbers close to Cano’s 200 picks later (he’s climbing the charts though).

GEORGE CARLIN (still relevant):

• Jeff Kent (100—173). This member of Gen X-Cel gets no respect from Gen Whyy and Zzzz (leave him alone to read his motocross or whatever magazines!). How consistent has the dude been? Okay, he’s 40. He’s no longer durable. But his numbers in an injury-shortened 2007 eclipsed most second-sad-sackers’. Sure, he’s declining but not so much that you grab O-Dog (love that tag!) or Pedroia, plus the Dodgers lineup should be improved with Jones, a healthy Furcal, and more mature Kemp and Loney. Yes, draft a backup later.
• Placido Polanco (127—183). He might not match his career-best .341, but you can’t ignore his .325 BA with the Tigers or that new Murderers’ Row around him. Puts the ball in play, rarely Ks, should score a ton of runs. Some pundits argue taking Cano when you can get Polanco’s numbers (only significantly different in HRs) 100 picks later. True, but Cano still has upside.

RODNEY DANGERFIELD (no respect):

• Freddy Sanchez PIT (180—234). You can’t sneeze at a .315 three-season average or 95 doubles the last two seasons. Could transform some of that gap power into homers, gets you 80+ ribbies and about 80 runs. And his mock ADP is 304.18! To be fair, I’ve seen him going earlier in real drafts, around 220: still value.
• Ty Wigginton (193–272). Get Wiggy with it, especially at Kelly’s 256.55. His power in MI context is impressive; he qualifies at 2B, 3B, even 1B and OF depending on your league settings; he clearly loves home cookin’ at Minute Maid Park. His career BB:K is a lousy 0.40, but his aggressiveness starts more often than snuffs rallies. The downside is his RBI total (though only two other 2B managed 20 HRs and 65 ribbies in 2006-7), since he generally hits lower in the order.

Unfortunately, I’m running too long to list my watch list, including Mark Ellis, Yunel Escobar, Brendan Harris (if he staves off Casilla), Akinori Iwamura, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Felipe Lopez (who should supplant either Belliard or Guzman). But comments are appreciated, and maybe I can sneak in some more comics that way