FGD Keeper Draft Analysis
Mar 12th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
We had our FGD.net first year keeper league draft this past Saturday. The rules are its 6X6 (walks and holds), round -3 keepers, and 27 man rosters (w/ minors but that draft has yet to happen) starting: C 1 2 3 s mi ci 5 OF ut…3 sp 3 rp 3 p 5 bench. I drew 7th, and ended up with Miggy…. here is how the rest of the first round went.
1. Álex Rodríguez
2. Hanley Ramírez
3. José Reyes
4. David Wright
5. Matt Holliday
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Miguel Cabrera
8. Albert Pujols
9. David Ortiz
10. Chase Utley
11. Ryan Howard
12. Alfonso Soriano
I like the Hanley over Reyes, even though players this high get recycled year to year. Pujols fell far after the news broke that he may be shut down early to have season ending surgery. Ryan Howard at 11 is very nice (with Fielder on the way back to lock up HR) Utley at 10 is great also. I think that Holliday at 5 is a tad high, I half expected to end up with him at 7. Also note, no Ryan Braun. He ended up going 13th overall. The biggest surprise however, is clearly David Ortiz going before Utley, Howard, Braun, Fielder, Crawford, well, you get the picture.
Alright, seriously though, we have all had enough of this first round. Let’s get to what the people came to read about….
Your 2008 NNY Lobsters!
1 M. Cabrera
2 Ichiro
3 Rios
4 Jeter
5 Markakis
6 Shefield
7 Saito
8 Renteria
9 Victorino
10 Halliday
11 Penny
12 Myers
13 Youkilis (walks!)
14 Maine
15 Polanco
16 Bonderman
17 Okajima
18 Kent
19 Saltalamacchia
20 Bruce
21 Pudge
22 Delcarmen
23 Kennedy
24 Jacobs
25 Meche
26 Petit
27 LaRoche (Andy)
The catcher run did not happen until about round 20. At that point I did not have a 1b or a catcher. I went with Salty first to solve either problem leaving myself for best available later. Pudge’s lineup makes up for his shortcomings.
Markakis in the 5th is great. If Shef can stay healthy, I can have 5/9 of what will be the best offense in baseball.
I was amazed at how late great pitching was around. Here is round 10 for a gauge of what was going on….
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Howie Kendrick
4. Pat Burrell
5. Jorge Posada
6. Roy Halladay
7. Javier Vázquez
8. Dustin McGowan
9. Matt Cain
10. Jeremy Hermida
11. Andruw Jones
12. Ben Sheets
Those are some strong contributers for the 10th in my opinion.
Only 2 holds guys and one closer for me this draft. I feel like there are tons of options and ways to fall into both holds and saves on the wire. Gregg was a great example of that last year. I’m sure if I find RP crippling me, I will be able to pick up some guys to patchwork a middle of the road finish in those categories.
LaRoche is obviously a flyer pick (now that he is hurt and the job has basically been given to Nomar, if he is even healthy) that late as a potential keeper (24th rounder) next year.
Potentially I could keep LaRoche, Petit, Jacobs (eh), Bruce, and anyone else would have to really overachieve and convince me that it was not a one year fluke.
Obviously, I am happy with the team, I drafted them. Therefore I appreciate any and all critiques and comments from you guys to help put me in my place.
you should post the draft results for the entire draft
I agree, talk to Kelly (winabango) about it. I’m sure he would find a place where you guys could see it all. It wold take up to o much space in one blog post however.
I am working on building the league page for our teams to manage their minor league rosters. In doing that I am importing (manually entering) the data into an excell spreadsheet for record keeping. I will post that when it is finished.
Kelly
Tyler, I think we shoud do a Round Table discussion with all the FGD writers, whether they’re in the league or not. So everyone discusses their picks and everyone else’s. Just e-mailed Kelly.
And why Papi? Because we don’t keep selections from the 1st three rounds, and a healthy Papi will be enormous. He’s usually the BB leader
NO question he goes before Howard and Fielder. Utley maybe not. But I doubt Chase gets more than 12 SBs, so…
ok, this is my third attempt to post. LOL…. First off, I think the FGD draft would make an excellent Round Table discussion, with each writer dicsussing his picks and commenting on others’ (the writers who didn’t participate can still critique!) and e-mailed Kelly about it.
Second, in response to taking Papi… You neglected to mention that we can’t select keepers next year from the first three rounds. Therefore, youth needn’t be valued quite as highly. Moreover, he’s supposed to be healthy after minor knee surgery. Ortiz perennially leads in Walks, which constitute a category after all. As a result, I have him ranked slightly higher in this league than Howard and Fielder. I debated Utley, but I don’t think he’ll run that much, so he’s really only a 5.5-cat contributor, albeit at a rarer position.
Ortiz will run zero, so he is only a 5 guy. I hear you with walks though.
True, but his 5-cat production could be sensational. And Utley is really only 5-cat total when I look at it closely. Doesn’t walk that much. Mere 9% rate.
Anyway, I made sure to grab Grady (lots of walks) next. He disappointed last year, but could be a true rare 6-cat guy. I must admit I sacrificed BA to an extent, but have several 100+ Walk guys. In most keepers that lack draft penalties I wouldn’t have taken Papi, but here…. It was him, Howard (more BBs than Prince) or Utley. Love Chase, espec in that lineup obviously, but I was targeting Brian Roberts later, since he upped his BB% nicely, and could be huge if he gets traded to Chicago. Sometimes you take the less expected route…
Well, maybe I’m starting the round table now. LOL.
Yeah we really could pump out a 500,000 word round table easily. (and in no way is that pathetic)
Sizemore was a great pick imo…we had him ranked in our top 10 and flirted with the idea of taking him instead of Rollins. In this league, I think the 30 hr/100 walk/30 steal types are GOLD and Grady falls into that category. The walks category really throws a wrinkle into it…guys like Kendrick/Polanco get thrown under a bus in a league like this while the Custs/Thome types really are studs. On a different note, who’s up for trading!??!?
I think it is time that I weighed in on this. Adding walks and holds to the league definitely changed some of the drafts dynamics. However, the keeper inflation of 3 rounds created the largest dynamic change. Where I underestimated players being drafted was during the mid to late teens. This is when everyone took all of the “sexy” prospects that I wanted. Guys like Stephen Drew (13), Lastings Milledge (19), Adam Jones (19), Evan Longoria (15) and Colby Rasmus (19). Even though I missed out on them, I was able to grab the prospects I really wanted with Manny Parra (26), Brandon Morrow (25), and Scott Baker (24). That means Manny Parra will only cost me a 23rd round pick next year, and he is as good (if not better) then Gallardo.
Tyler, why on earth did you waste a fourth round pick on Derek “past a diving” Jeter?
Say Longoria is kept this year, it’ll cost a 12th rounder… if we keep him for another year is he another 12th round pick or does he “inflate” to a 9th?
I selected Pastadiving because he has a career 317 BA the speed to steal bases (under a new more “go get em” manager this is going to come into play). He will contribute to runs big time as always, pop 10-15 out as a bonus. His BB #s have always been very good as well. Him and Tullow are the only two guys I’d trust there (@ ss, not in the 4th) outside of the big three and I have already mentioned the track record. I stand by my pick and still think he will help more than Beckett, Atkins, and a few other 4th rounders.
Tyler,
All keepers get a 3 round inflation each year. So by drafting Longoria in the 15th, he will cost a 12 round next year. Then a 9th the following, a 6th the following year, and finally a 3rd in the final year of control. So technically you have up to 5 years of control over Evan Longoria.
This is the Splitting Headaches checking in; this was a fun, yet challenging, draft. My top 6 picks were:
Round (overall pick)
1 (10) C Utley (2B)
2 (15) C Crawford (OF)
3 (34) R Martin (C)
4 (39) A Ramirez (3B)
5 (58) C Pena (1B)
6 (63) J Smoltz (P)
I had an interesting draft (that’s a kind way to say I wasn’t too happy with the end results). Even though I knew that walks & holds were add’l categories, I somehow disregarded the walks addition until I was a few rounds in (which will probably come back to haunt me during the season).
I was happy to end up with Utley with the 10th overall pick, even though he doesn’t walk as much as some of the other top guys; it’s always comforting getting the middle infield addressed with studs early in the draft. Crawford is the first of the picks I might have done differently in a draft do-over. This is the first time I’ve ever drafted Crawford, after many seasons of wanting him & anticipating a “breakout” season (read - more HR). I really think this will be the year he shows more power & rbi’s, but he walks about 1/3 as often as the pick 16th pick, Sizemore, who went one pick later. Grady might not steal as often as Carl, but he’s shown proven power & his walks have increased substantially each of the past few seasons. Oh well, I hope Crawford becomes a top 10 player this year & gives me a shot.
Even though this is a one catcher league, I couldn’t pass up Martin with my third round selection; I just didn’t think he’d be there the next time around & he was one of the top players on my board at that point. He walks plenty, he’ll hit HR, and get more steals than any catcher - I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he stays healthy & gets 15-20 steals. I was fine with Ramirez at 39 overall; I think he’ll improve this season and he’s solid all around. I felt like I reached a little for Carlos Pena at 58th overall, although his high walk ratio makes him more valuable in this league than a normal 5×5. I didn’t have a huge power guy yet, and I felt like he’d give me 80%-90% of the performance of Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard at a significantly discounted price.
With my 6th round pick, I reached some for the grandpa of the pitching studs by taking John Smoltz; although living in Atlanta & following the Braves pretty closely, I know for a fact that he’s still an awesome pitcher and will give me wins, a low ERA & WHIP, and get K’s; I certainly could have done worse. And since I was able to get Kazmir (9th round - good value in my mind), Shields (11th round), and Wainwright (14th round) to round out my rotation, I think I’ll be very competitive in the pitching categories (I have consistency all around in Smoltz, K’s & upside in Kazmir, K’s & WHIP in Shields, and upside all around in Wainwright).
Overall, I’m probably a mid-pack team with some upside with my current roster. With some wise waiver wire pickups, I might have a shot to be more competitive.
In the near future, I’ll probably post a more detailed analysis of my draft either here or on my site at http://rotoadvice.blogspot.com
I’m looking forward to a great season.
It certainly was intriguing, given the keeper inflation. I just missed out on a few sexy prospects I’d targeted, so focused on guys I figured could help immediately. Moreover, Yahoo doesn’t list several top high-level prospects in its database. So I thought I’d wait to see how our MiLB draft would pan out, not to mention players coming up on waivers.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who sometimes refers to them as “sexy” picks, and “sexy” prospects. (more entertaining if you were in the draft chat)
It’s not all Eva Longoria in fantasy