For the first installment of the Point - Counterpoint, Ivar and I will be discussing Dustin McGowan. Through doing mock drafts, and real drafts, I have seen McGowan selected as early as the 10th round and as late as the 16th. That tells me that owners are not really sure what to do with him. So let’s get started….

Kelly: I personally like Dustin McGowan this year, as do many other sites. Currently his ADP has him at 165, which would be a middle of the 14^th round pick for a 12-team draft. So what do I like about him? How about a 95 mph fastball? Chicks love the fastball, and so do I. However, the best part about his arsenal of pitches is his plus curveball. That kind of combination can be lethal to a hitter’s ego. He has the “stuff” to be a top 15 pitcher this year, but he doesn’t have enough major league experience to warrant being selected as one. I would use a 15^th round pick, but not much more than that.

Ivar: Count me in on the McGowan bandwagon. What’s not to like about a hard throwing, sinkerball pitcher who provides strikeouts at a very high clip and helps you in WHIP and ERA (like most strikeout pitchers do). Well, since this is a counterpoint, the negatives are his team and his perceived injury risk. The Blue Jays are not expected to contend for the division championship, and he has to face the Yankees and Red Sox a disproportionate number of times due to the unbalanced schedule. He did throw a lot of innings last season after bouncing between the roles of starter and reliever early in his major league career. The questions about his control also remain, as he tends to fall behind in the count. If he stays healthy and can learn to get ahead in the count, he moves from a No. 5 fantasy pitcher to maybe No. 3 when drafting.

Kelly: So we agree on Dustin McGowan with respects to his talent. However, the question now becomes where he should be drafted in mixed leagues. I can also agree on the idea that the Blue Jays are not the best team to pitch for, but not for the reason you may be thinking. The Jays have a history of abusing pitchers, and McGowan saw his workload increase by 85 innings last year. That is definite cause for concern. The question is, what round is the highest that you would use to select him?

Ivar: I have him ranked as a third tier SP on my personal cheat sheet, which means he should go in a 12 team draft between rounds 7 and 12. I am rethinking this, and based on what I’ve seen in mock drafts so far, I would take him in the 14th round, just like in the mock draft we did on your site. I believe he is flying under the radar still this season for most fantasy players.
I concur that the Toronto organization is terrible as far as overusing its pitchers, and the huge jump in innings last season concerns me, but I am hoping I can get one more great season out of McGowan before the inevitable injury sidelines him.

So we have both come to the same conclusion…. selecting him in the 14-15 round range would provide excellent value for an owner. However, reaching to the 11th or 12th rounds would not be out of the question. Take him this year, and be very wary of injuries next season, especially if his workload increases substantially again this year.