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Nights at the Round Table - Howard vs. Fielder

Mar 19th, 2008 by winabango

With Tyler on vacation this week, I guess i need to step in and fill his spot. Better yet, let’s have all of the Fantasy Gameday writers will do that. Every so often, all of the writers will contribute their thoughts on a Fantasy Baseball topic. There has been a lot of discussion around the Internet regarding the debate of who will have the better season: Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. Well, we thought we would throw our two cents in.

  • Tyler: Both are relatively young guys, age doesn’t play too much of a role here (unless you are in a keeper league you plan on having for the next 15 years). Philly is a help with the HR numbers from Howard more so that Miller is for Fielder. Both “struggle” to hit homers off lefties. Howard has been hitting on a 50ish HR a year pace since being called up, while Prince “only” hit 28 in his first full year. Both have a very good offense around them, the RBI and runs will be there for both. The 7 SB out of Fielder is not much of anything, but it shows with the right manager someday (and maybe a weight loss program) he could be good to snag a few more. What I find the most interesting is the consistent monthly totals from Fielder and the two 10+ months from Howard. Depending on your league’s settings you may be able to take advantage of the streak hitter more than the consistent one. I’ll still take Howard, but not by much, and another 45+ homer season for Fielder might change my mind in 09.
  • Joshua: While I’d be happy to have either as the cornerstone of a lineup, I’d have to give the edge to Howard. Sure, he struck out a record 199 times last season, but his .291 career batting average isn’t consistent with the all-or-nothing hitter label. Howard also has a year more experience than Fielder, and plays in a smaller ballpark. The largest drawback to Fielder, however, is his recent decision to adopt the vegetarian lifestyle. While the dietary modification may help him in the long run, and prevent him from requiring his own zip code, I’d be concerned that his body could betray him initially as he experiences the growing pains, or “slimming pains,” of a major diet change. As long as he’s closely monitored by team physicians and the proper amount of protein and other nutrients regularly enter his system, he should be fine. It may take some time, though, for the balance to be attained, and his health and power numbers may be affected, thus making Howard my preference.
  • Chuck: I poured over statistics for a while, both traditional and sabermetric, (which give Howard a slight but consistent advantage) before realizing my take on this is pretty simple. Ryan Howardʼs established peak is higher than Prince Fielder’s. So Howard is higher on my charts. I believe Howard’s Batting Average will rebound enough from last year to make it close between the two. The one exception is if your league penalizes hitters for strikeouts, but in most circumstances take Howard.
  • Jordan: Incredibly close, assuming good health. In a keeper it’s Fielder: He’s 4.5 years younger and if he avoids the Supersize-Me Fast Food Nation could consistently nab 8-10 SBs. Howard boasts a ridiculous power index well over 200, plays in a bandbox and slightly superior lineup, and tattooed 58&47 taters his first two full seasons. No one’s ever done that (well, not counting the Bambino’s first two full seasons as hitter). He’s upped his BB% (counterbalancing his putrid contact rate), suggesting he can sustain a .275-80 BA despite slumps. But Ryan K’d 199 times while Prince also improved his BB%, sports far better contact and BB:K rates, and had a terrific .406OBA in the 2nd half. Howard’s a “surer” thing; we could demand another 45-dinger season from Prince before crowning him king–or we can take a (moon)shot on Cecil’s kid. Fun fact: Fielder mashed the longer 2007 tater (468 to 464 feet), won the Golden Sledgehammer for longest average distance (408ft) and his top speed off the bat was an insane 122.1 MPH
  • Ivar: It seems to me that both are excellent fantasy picks. Both play on good teams with enough lineup support to let them hit for power. The 5-10 steals from Fielder, along with his higher contact rate and consequentially, higher BA, makes me lean in his direction. Alternately, unless your league penalizes for strikeouts, there is no compelling reason not to take Howard in the first round. If the lower BA bothers you, draft Ichiro or Polanco. I look for Howard to resume his HR hitting this season, and would take him in the first round. I’ve been able to wait on Fielder dropping to the second round, but wouldn’t hesitate to take him in the late first assuming Howard was off the board. I expect Fielder to have a higher average, but Howard to hit for more consistent power, and therefore would give Howard a slight fantasy edge.
  • Kelly: Both players are solid fantasy options with a ton of power. I know… Captain Obvious has entered the building, but the power is about the only thing that makes these players identical. Howard is five years older, and has a proven track record of mashing balls. This includes the year he set the record for most home runs in a Reading Phillies season. However, his strikeout rate frightens me. I tend to not draft players that have a K% of over 25%, and Howard has posted rates above 30% each year in the league. Prince actually lowered his rate over the past two seasons, and his walk rates will increase as pitchers begin to work around him more each year. So, in my mind, Prince Fielder is the better fantasy choice for this year and beyond.

It looks like Howard win with a 4-2 count. Hope you enjoyed the discussion. Please feel free to post other topic ideas in the comments section.

Posted in Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball, Baseball - 1B | 1 Comment

One Comment to “Nights at the Round Table - Howard vs. Fielder”
  1. on 20 Mar 2008 at 9:48 am#1Steve

    Howard was also injured from spring training until his 2-3 week stint on the DL and STILL almost led the NL in RBI (one behind Holliday, after he played the “extra” game tacked on to the Rockies season). As for HRs, he had 3 less than Fielder, with 44 less at-bats. The crazy shifts defenses created for Howard were ridiculous last year, and I personally think they account for 10-20 less hits last year. If Fielder gets the same treatment, I see some negative returns for him hit-wise also. I have Howard in both of my leagues, and feel pretty good about it.

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