Setting the Alarm on OF Sleepers
Mar 21st, 2008 by Jordan Simon
I’m starting off-topic with a trade I received in a 6×6 (Holds, OBP) 2nd-year keeper league (we retain only 5, alas). He sends me D-TRain and Dunn for Rios and Rafael Soriano. I’m not a D-TRain fan (though the nickname’s nicely alliterative with Deee-troit) and I like a potentially dominant if injury-prone closer, but this is about Rios-Dunn. Yes, Dunn is an asset in OBP leagues. But his BA remains a drag. Rios could breakout in his 27 year (though last season’s second-half slump repeat, unexplained by a staph infection this time, is worrisome), and his BA balances a merely acceptable OBP. But I’m steamed that the owner didn’t examine my roster. I project to be mid-pack in SBs (I didn’t keep Chone since he’s not 2B-eligible), so can’t afford the double-digit loss in steals. But more to the point I’m no 98-lb weakling in the power cats (hell, I just got Thome at #167 in the 14th—if he stays healthy and I sit him against southpaws, well…). Moreover, I already have Dunn lite in Burrell and Cust (who both fell further than they should in this league).
After I declined with the above explanation, the owner tweaked the offer: just Rios for Dunn. Aimers, don’t take the following the wrong way. I’m not sexist, but I found the perfect absurdly brutal macho fantasy sports metaphor for unwanted trades, and it works for women too. Say you’re on the bus. A very unattractive gal (or dude, Aimers) eyeballs ya as if they thought they stood a chance. It hurts your vanity. You’re insulted. How DARE s/he? Well, offers demonstrating that the other owner didn’t take your needs into account feel like that.
Enough venting.
Everyone’s grousing about their favorite sure-thing prospects being sent down. Bruce, Rasmus, maybe even Longoria. Yes, teams owe it to the fans to put the best team out there. But long run, starting that arbitration clock later also benefits the fans by ensuring a more competitive team down the road (I refuse to feel sorry for the players assuming they cash in eventually). I worry more about Dusty screwing with Bruce and Votto’s heads more than anything else. Not to mention that Baker would play Ted Williams’s corpse sans head if he could. These boys are getting dropped in lots of leagues. Assuming you have a decent-sized bench, need I remind you to pounce?
So the elite prospects — Bruce, Longoria, maybe Rasmus — are sent down for seasoning they probably don’t need (put another shrimp on the barbie, and watch the jalapeño). As talented as you are, the name of the game is opportunity. Meantime these only slightly less heralded 5-tool OF prospects have some big league experience and guaranteed PT.
Adam Jones, Baltimore. Ranked 28th by Baseball America in 2007, he’s under a harsh spotlight as centerpiece of the Bedard deal (and rumored back problems). A disturbing trend is that his eye (BB:K ratio) worsened as he progressed, culminating in a dreadful 4:21 in his brief call-up last year. However, his isolated power index, SLG and flyball rate improved radically through the minors and he’s had a good spring (.907 OPS through 3/20). A more aggressive approach sacrificed his contact rate; if he can curb the free swinging and revert to his strong MiLB #s against righties, hitter-friendly Camden Yards should waken this sleeper, especially if he bats 2nd not 8th. Look for his older comrade, Luke Scott in the late rounds (good power source, mediocre BA).
Lastings Milledge, Washington. The new Deion Sanders has huge upside if his teammates don’t spit tobacco all over him. The 25:81 BB:K in his two big-league stints is scary, but he’s only 23, and his eye improved each year in the minors especially between AA and AAA, when he showed better plate discipline in 2006. His indicators all rocketed despite a low BA last September. His 2007 #s extrapolated to 550ABs (conservative if he plays fulltime): .272/23/81/87/9. PECOTA has him at.290 19/73/85/22 batting second. That 20/20 potential is a lock if he continues to bat second, though he does need to improve his SB%, and Nationals Park plays more neutral as expected (which would help Kearns, whose home/road splits were dramatic, potentially breakout).
Justin Upton, Arizona. The #2 prospect in BA’s 2006 list tumbled to #9 in 2007, but he’s still considered to have more tools than Black and Decker. His contact rate is barely above average and, like most sluggers, he never had a dazzling K:BB, though his eye improved each level until he hit the big show. But remember he’s just 20 and made the leap from AA (despite only 259 ABs there). A strong spring suggests he’s here to stay, though he’ll probably be merely average this season.
Cameron Maybin, Florida. Baseball America’s #6 prospect the last 2 years (higher than Bruce in 2007), Maybin also improved his BB:K rate until reaching the bigs. The ever-optimistic James projects 22/69/87/35/.253, but most scouts feel he isn’t ready, except in the speed department. Still, a promising spring has the Marlins reconsidering, which likely isn’t in his best interests (Ross might actually pay the most immediate fantasy dividends if he snags the CF job). His K rate was always alarmingly high (between 28-30%), his contact rate low, so he’s flashed power this spring but not BA. Regardless, Maybin is a keeper’s dream as a potential 30/30 CF.
The four have all been talked up (except for Cameron), so their ADP is climbing. Jones and Maybin are the most “affordable.” Jones and Milledge probably have the most immediate impact.
Prospect watch list:
- Kelly’s latest tout, Steven Pearce, if Bay doesn’t rebound and Nady is traded.
- Wladimir Balentien (sounds like a Slavic brew) could actually make Seattle fans forget Jones’ promise.
- Chase Headley, now a converted 3B is a bit dicier (though we like multi-eligibility). He wasn’t considered top-tier until a bang-up 2007. I try to avoid Petco players, but Headley could surprise and find PT with Giles and Edmonds continually on the DL (gee, why didn’t the Padres call Steve Finley???). He’s no longer a prospect, but also keep tabs on Scott Hairston.
- A “one-time” prospect who could matter: Nate McLouth. The latest fashionable late-round pick never showed signs of being better than a AAAA tweener player (Duffy was still rated by scouts ahead of him going into last year). Despite his excellent spring and eye-popping #s in the 2nd half of 2007, this legit 20/20 threat still displays average contact and a poor eye despite doubling his walk rate, suggesting a low BA.
Hope you enjoyed. Comments as ever always appreciated. Ranking by comedian will probably return my next column. 
How about ranking by John Hughes movies?
Well let’s see. Cam Maybin is probably (at) “Home Alone” if he bats low in the order. Justin Upton is only four years removed from “Sixteen Candles.” Adam Jones (who allegedly had a hip, not back problem… hey, sorry, the kneebone’s connected to the thighbone…) would be “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles” because it took him so long to get stateside from Venezuela for his physical. I suppose they’re all almost young enough to join the “Breakfast Cllub,” but I’ll pick Lastings Milledge since his past behavior would have been the likeliest to get detention. He also probably thinks he’s “Pretty in Pink” (written not directed by Hughes), or at least pretty and in the pink
And it’s “Weird Science” trying to predict performance solely by the numbers but we try…
Wlad Balentien could be in Seattle’s starting lineup by mid-May. Vidro has a vesting option for 2009 and Seattle won’t let him reach it, so either Wlad or Jeff Clement should be replacing Vidro after he reaches 200-250 at bats or so. Keep an eye on that. Either could provide 20 homers and Wlad will steal some bases as well.
Actually I agree with you, Jon, which is why he’s on my watch list. Obviously, of the players in my list, Maybin didn’t make the final cut (which is best for him; young players making the jump tend to press too much in their attempt to play savior). But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a midseason callup.