Back to reality with the second edition of splitsville. This one will focus on Garrett Atkins. Atkins finished last year at .301 with 25 HR and 111 RBI. HE also broke the record for most “screw this guys he is killing me, I’m dealing him for 40 cents on the dollar because I hate him and he has killed my team this year” trades. Only to then turn around and lead the league in “making the bargain seeking owner snicker to himself 3 months later” department. It’ll make sense, trust me.

Like most righties he hits better off of right handed pitchers. Like most big time hitters he still has a respectable set of numbers against lefties. The small difference is his power numbers. 3.4% of his LHP at bats went for bombs while 4.4% left the yard against righties. This is not a big deal, as both are equally acceptable, and expected. Coors field has an effect on just about every number possible with hitting. Atkins thrives at home (even though he somehow hit 5 more HR on the road than at home). His average and all of his totals (sans-HRs) are significantly higher at home. (OPS of 936!!!)

Atkins’ numbers do not change much with RISP. .307 with a 3.9% HR ratio. So the pressure doesn’t bother him, but its not like he is a “clutch” guy. He does have a great time driving home runs from third. With a man on 3d and less than 2 outs (the sac fly time), he hits .441 and has 36 RBI in 34 ABs. This is extremely good, and is inherently proof that he is aware of the situation and adapts accordingly.

Now comes the fun part. Lets take a trip down 1/12 of the readers memory lane….

Atkins is a breakout projected guy, in a great lineup, in a hitters park. Everything looks perfect (even his age) for a breakout year. Draft day comes and you decide to reach a bit, but no one is ridiculing you, because they know he wasn’t going to fall to your next pick.

Fast forward 2 months, you have suffered through April (.260, 2HR, 13 RBI) and May (.188, 1HR, 7RBI) and you decide its time to cut your losses and move on. Maybe if you are desperate you give him one more month to try to raise his value so you can get rid of him for something of value. June he rewards you for being patient and restores a bit of value (.305, 8HR, 25RBI).

So he is dealt to gambling (probably falling) Owner B. Who decides that he is going to stick him out and give him an honest chance. Just comes and goes and he isn’t killing you, but he still isn’t everything we expected (.302, 4, 19). Worthy of a spot on the team for sure. Then suddenly, out of nowhere (here is the part where Owner One will want to stop reading) he blows up .349 post ASB, 29 RBI in August, 390 in September! Some of this can be attributed to the best winning streak in baseball history, some can be contributed to a known trend of Atkins being a second half player. In 06 he hit about 50 points higher post ASB while popping 7 more HRs out (in a shorter time mind you).

The moral of the story is, if a player is frustrating you in a given stretch, see if he has a history of being a second half player, or even a streak hitter. That will save you from making a deal you will regret, and if you’re determined to deal him, it’ll give you something to argue about to up his value on the market.