On The Wire
Mar 29th, 2008 by winabango
Now that the season has officially begun, it is time for my weekly segment of On The Wire. I used to write this article on fantasybaseballguy.com, but now it is here to stay. So let’s get started.
First of all, there are players that need to be dropped unless you are in a keeper or dynasty league. All of the prospects that have been drafted in the middle of drafts need to be dropped, unless you have a large bench in deep leagues. This includes Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus, Salty, Homer Bailey, and even Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. These guys are not going to help you over the first few months of the season. Don’t take them off your radar, but don’t waste roster spots at the beginning of the year on them.
So here are this week’s players “on the wire”.
Felipe Lopez 2B WAS - I am not sure if I should recommend Lopez as an addition to your team or not. He is turning the “magic age” of 27 this year, but he may not get the starting job in Washington. I have a gut feeling that he will get a chance to play this week, and I think he will make the most of his opportunity. So I will straddle the fence and say, that you should watch him this week.
Randy Wolf SP SD - He is at it again. Wolf is pitching very well, but for how long is always the question. Who cares, ride it while you can. Wolf is a solid pitcher, and now he is pitching in the caverness that is San Diego. This is a pitcher that should be added to the back of your rotation. Then if he gets injured again, you have not invested a whole lot in him, but you should get some solid outings from him. Remember that his ERA last year is inflated due to the last two outings which occurred while he was injured.
Joe Crede 3B CHW - With Josh Fields being sent down to Triple-A, the keys to the third base job have been handed to Crede. I don’t know how much of this is to demonstrate that Crede is healthy and still productive, or whether he is playing well enough to have the job. That doesn’t really matter at this point for Fantasy Owners. If you drafted Josh Fields, pick-up Crede only because he will be playing everyday. There may be better options in shallow leagues, but in deep league, he is worth the flyer.
Manny Parra SP MIL - As I thought, Manny Parra has earned a spot in the Brewers’ rotation. Just in case you have no idea who this is, Baseball Prospectus has him rated as a five star prospect. They describe him to as good, if not better, then Gallardo. Expect the ups and downs of a rookie, but he should be very serviceable over the first month until Gallardo returns.
Jonathan Broxton RP LAD - Most everyone has had Broxton on their radar this spring, and for good reason. His K-rates are outstanding, and he can shatter bats. However, how does “closer to start the year” sound? That’s right, Saito has not pitched at all this spring, and may not be ready for opening day. Now is the time to grab cheap saves if he is available in your league.
Ervin Santana SP LAA - With the recent injuries to Lackey and Escobar, Santana now has all but ensured spot in the rotation. I know that he is a risky pick, but in H2H leagues, this is the type of pitcher that you want. He will kill you in roto leagues, but in H2H, each week gets erased. Who knows, maybe he is more consistent this year.
Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker SP MIN - Both pitchers have made the Twin’s rotation, not that it was a hard thing to do. However, both pitchers are young pitchers with solid control. Slowey has posted a WHIP below 1.00 throughout his minor league career. Baker posted a solid K/BB ratio of 10.25 in Triple-A, and 3.52 at the major league level. Their greatest enemy will be the Twin’s defense, but they are good enough to overcome that.
Tony Gwynn Jr. OF MIL - Gwynn has been named the starting center fielder for the Brewers, and he may even hit in the #2 spot in the lineup. The best thing about his performance this spring is that he posted a .543 Slugging percentage. That is .228 higher than his career mark. That type of improvement generally leads to increased production in that season.
I was curious about this theory that high slugging percentage in ST has predictive power, so over at Fantasy Baseball Cafe I looked over Dewan’s lists from 2005-2007. In short, there’s little substance to the theory. The players from 2005-2007 who met this criteria had no discernable pattern of improved production.
What about Nick Johnson?
Really good info in this post that I hadn’t gotten anywhere else–made me reconsider my thoughts on a few guys.
As for the Dewan thing, his correlation was taken from stats in the late 90s and early 2000s, as far as I know. Very well could mean nothing, as people tend to write as a caveat, but any minor edge is worth pursuing, you know?
Nick Johnson is a pure hitter that gets no respect. The largest knock on him is the he is so injury prone. I would definitely take a shot with him as my corner infielder. In fact I have done that already.
If the minor edge leads you, in fact, to choose players based on factors that give you no edge, it’s not an edge.