A few noteworthy events have occurred for Johnny Cueto recently. First, he almost certainly has pitched his way into the Reds’ rotation to start the year. Homer Bailey’s assignment to Louisville all but assures it. Second, he stumbled through a truly horrific outing against the (don’t call us Devil) Rays. Third, he remains excluded from the Yahoo player pool, frustrating many of us to no end.

Cueto fits the definitions of both young and inexperienced. Just 22, he has started only 14 games in levels above single A. At 5’11” and 174 lbs. he is not built like a classic power pitcher, but he does throw like one. Featuring a mid-90s fastball, high 80s slider and change-up, he has impressed scouts with his command of all three. He throws from a three-quarters arm slot, which contributes to the above average movement on his fastball in particular. Scouts describe his mechanics as clean but violent. I see a lot of Francisco Rodriguez in his delivery. Comparisons have also been made to Cincinnati pitching instructor Mario Soto.

Cueto has been successful in his minor league career. A league all star in 2006 and 2007, he made Baseball America’s prospect list at #34 this year. In total, his minor league ERA was 3.28, WHIP 1.10. Consistently around a strikeout per inning, three seasons of K/BB rates read 4.4, 3.76. 5.0. Cueto also allowed only 300 hits in 348.1 total innings. Last year, spread across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), he pitched 161.1 innings. This would suggest a maximum workload of 180 – 190 innings this year, and keeper leaguers can only pray Dusty Baker gets that memo. Also, in 2006 and 2007 Cueto has averaged less than 6 innings per start. As a strikeout pitcher, it is easy to imagine him having difficulty managing his pitch count, even with his refined control.

Further projecting onto the major league level, among stops with the greatest sample size, Cueto’s ground ball percentages are: 54%, 39%, 47%, 36%. That is worrisome for pitching in the homer happy Great American Ballpark which graded out as the second most favorable for long balls. To Cueto’s credit he knows the task ahead of him; “I throw a lot of fastballs. Sometimes I elevate my pitches. I’ve got to keep the ball down.”

Understandably, computerized projection systems are skeptical of Cueto this year. Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, and CHONE forecast a 4.75 ERA with 1.42 WHIP, 4.97 with 1.38, 5.03 with 1.52 respectively. Scouts will say he is capable of much better, especially based on what he has shown this spring. I’ll agree with them, especially over the short term. I see Cueto as a good option to replace a starter on the DL currently - like Gallardo, Kazmir, or Lackey.

If your waiver priority is not high enough to grab Cueto, his teammate Edinson Volquez is also having a standout spring. Acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, the 23 year old has struck out 26 in 20 spring innings without allowing a home run. Five year minor league totals show a 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 563 K in 551 IP, with 2.76 K/BB in 2007.