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    Johnny Cueto

    Apr 1st, 2008 by Chuck Anderson

    A few noteworthy events have occurred for Johnny Cueto recently. First, he almost certainly has pitched his way into the Reds’ rotation to start the year. Homer Bailey’s assignment to Louisville all but assures it. Second, he stumbled through a truly horrific outing against the (don’t call us Devil) Rays. Third, he remains excluded from the Yahoo player pool, frustrating many of us to no end.

    Cueto fits the definitions of both young and inexperienced. Just 22, he has started only 14 games in levels above single A. At 5’11” and 174 lbs. he is not built like a classic power pitcher, but he does throw like one. Featuring a mid-90s fastball, high 80s slider and change-up, he has impressed scouts with his command of all three. He throws from a three-quarters arm slot, which contributes to the above average movement on his fastball in particular. Scouts describe his mechanics as clean but violent. I see a lot of Francisco Rodriguez in his delivery. Comparisons have also been made to Cincinnati pitching instructor Mario Soto.

    Cueto has been successful in his minor league career. A league all star in 2006 and 2007, he made Baseball America’s prospect list at #34 this year. In total, his minor league ERA was 3.28, WHIP 1.10. Consistently around a strikeout per inning, three seasons of K/BB rates read 4.4, 3.76. 5.0. Cueto also allowed only 300 hits in 348.1 total innings. Last year, spread across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), he pitched 161.1 innings. This would suggest a maximum workload of 180 – 190 innings this year, and keeper leaguers can only pray Dusty Baker gets that memo. Also, in 2006 and 2007 Cueto has averaged less than 6 innings per start. As a strikeout pitcher, it is easy to imagine him having difficulty managing his pitch count, even with his refined control.

    Further projecting onto the major league level, among stops with the greatest sample size, Cueto’s ground ball percentages are: 54%, 39%, 47%, 36%. That is worrisome for pitching in the homer happy Great American Ballpark which graded out as the second most favorable for long balls. To Cueto’s credit he knows the task ahead of him; “I throw a lot of fastballs. Sometimes I elevate my pitches. I’ve got to keep the ball down.”

    Understandably, computerized projection systems are skeptical of Cueto this year. Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, and CHONE forecast a 4.75 ERA with 1.42 WHIP, 4.97 with 1.38, 5.03 with 1.52 respectively. Scouts will say he is capable of much better, especially based on what he has shown this spring. I’ll agree with them, especially over the short term. I see Cueto as a good option to replace a starter on the DL currently - like Gallardo, Kazmir, or Lackey.

    If your waiver priority is not high enough to grab Cueto, his teammate Edinson Volquez is also having a standout spring. Acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, the 23 year old has struck out 26 in 20 spring innings without allowing a home run. Five year minor league totals show a 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 563 K in 551 IP, with 2.76 K/BB in 2007.

    Posted in Fantasy Baseball, Baseball - SP | 11 Comments

    11 Comments to “Johnny Cueto”
    1. on 02 Apr 2008 at 7:15 am#1Chuck Anderson

      Update: Cueto is in the Yahoo player pool as of this morning. A waiver claim will get him on your roster this weekend, well after his first start. Following this logic, I guess Darren McFadden won’t be draftable for football this fall, we’ll all be making a claim on him for week two. No, I’m not bitter.

    2. on 02 Apr 2008 at 7:28 am#2Tony

      I grabbed Volquez in my yahoo league and I’ve been checking everyday (especially since I’ve read somewhere Cueto would be added early this week) and he still wasn’t available as of Tuesday April 2nd. It’s getting annoying. Yahoo has people like Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, and Colby Rasmus added yet don’t get people on who are ACTUALLY in the big leagues. How long could it take, they know people want to add him!!!

      Out of Cueto, Volquez, and Parra who will have a better year?

    3. on 02 Apr 2008 at 7:28 am#3Tony

      WOW he is on now… someone sound the alarms

    4. on 02 Apr 2008 at 2:07 pm#4Chuck Anderson

      Tony, you probably read the same company line I did about players being added when they make the major league roster. Obviously that was not the case. It’s an issue that they need to address, how hard is it to add a player to their pool?

      Of the three, Cueto strikes me as the most ready to make a positive impact. He has been more consistent than Volquez and Parra has neither the innings under his belt nor a stable rotation spot to be counted on for more than half the season. A great stat for Parra long term, in my opinion, is in his last 53 minor league starts he has surrendered just 11 HR.

    5. on 02 Apr 2008 at 10:42 pm#5Eddie

      I’m in a head-to-head league with no. 1 waiver priority and it’s looking like Longoria’s my most droppable player–would I be foolish not to wait? It’s harder to be patient playing week by week rather than all season. I also have Greinke, Volquez and Accardo as drop options, but I consider them all useful despite my chance to catch lightning.

    6. on 03 Apr 2008 at 10:18 am#6Chuck Anderson

      Hey Eddie, thanks for reading. Ultimately your roster decisions will all be about need. I’m assuming you have decent options at 3B/CI if you are considering carrying Longoria for two months. Of the pitchers you mentioned, I see Grienke as the most expendable. He is far from proven, and his stats last year look better because of his time in the bullpen. A silver lining to Yahoo’s mismanagement of the player pool is you can check out Cueto’s first start before making your decision to claim him. So far 2 IP, 3 K, 0 R.

    7. on 03 Apr 2008 at 11:33 am#7Tony

      YEAH cueto has a NO NO going thru 5 with 8K’s. I have #7 waiver priority in my league I believe, with at least one maybe two very knowlegable owners ahead of me. Praying either Cueto gets hit up here soon or that my other buddies don’t sniff him out! Which if he throws a NO NO in his first start I am SCREWED! Sportscenter will nominate this guy as the next best thing since sliced bread….. and I’ve been waiting on him for 2-3 weeks!

    8. on 03 Apr 2008 at 11:44 am#8Tony

      Justin Upton just hit a DONG, thank god, just need a couple more to throw people off so i can snag him…. LOL

    9. on 03 Apr 2008 at 12:25 pm#9Chuck Anderson

      Final line: Win, 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K. That’s seriously impressive, and the Diamondbacks are a good NL lineup.

    10. on 04 Apr 2008 at 6:04 am#10Tony

      Yep and ESPN blows CUETO up so everyone knows about him. Probably the dumbest guy in our league called the commissioner and said he is trying to get him but only has WW priority #2 so that pretty much means I am screwed at getting Cueto. Thanks Yahoo for making him available 2 days after he throws a GEM!

      At least I grabbed Volquez earlier. Ridiculous… I hope cueto gets blown out of the water in his next start!!!

    11. on 04 Apr 2008 at 6:21 am#11winabango

      Volquez is not a bad “second option” by any stretch. Coming into the season, Volquez had the most league ready arm, according to the experts.

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