Kelly was off this week, so I’m picking up where he left off (the promised review of David Price, the Ray’s prized prospect).
By far the consensus #1 draft pick last year, the 22-year-old Price was a commanding presence on the mound at Vanderbilt, standing 6’6”, lanky, but strong at 225 pounds. His arsenal features three plus pitches headed by a consistent mid-90s heater and a devastating slider. He went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 95 hits allowed (a .199 BAA), and a 194/31 K/BB ratio in 133.3 innings as a junior; the Ks set a school record and he won six national player-of-the-year awards, including the coveted Golden Spikes. The Rays shelled out a cool guaranteed $8.5 million for the first southpaw taken #1 overall since Brien Taylor (Yankees fans remember how that turned out). Top brass smartly didn’t rush him (perhaps being burned by the likes of Dewon Brazelton influenced the decision not to place him on a minor league roster).

Baseball America ranked him their #10 prospect before he threw a pitch in pro ball, a bona fide ace-in-the-making drawing rapturous comparisons to Koufax. Rumors suggested that he’d join the likes of Tim Lincecum in accelerating to the majors their first season. The sole scouting criticisms were a tendency toward inconsistent arm action and a repeating ¾ slot, both correctable. Price reported to spring training in shape but suffered what was termed mild shoulder soreness. He displayed power, polish and poise in two brief major league camp appearances, hitting 98 MPH on the radar gun while striking out the side against the Yanks on March 8^th.

Despite speculation that he’d start in Double-A, he was optioned on March 13 to High-A Vero Beach in the Florida State League. On March 20^th Price left his start with left elbow discomfort, which the Rays didn’t report officially for three days (terming it forearm strain). Claiming it was nothing serious, the plan now called for him to make several starts in extended spring training to build up stamina and eh would miss six weeks. However, he just reported feeling fine after a throwing session.

The likelihood of a mid-season, even September call-up is far less likely. The Rays would be well advised to coddle their phenom, especially since their farm system is stocked with top prospects like McGee, Davis, and even the near-forgotten Jeff Niemann. Here’s where dynasty leaguers and the 7,000-odd Rays season ticket holders should worry: two problems, however mild, in both his throwing shoulder and elbow.

This raises the specter of overuse. Many college pitching coaches, including Vandy’s highly respected Derek Johnson, believe athletes at this level can pitch deeper into games with the proper conditioning and adjustments. He even discussed placing non-throwing stress on the arm between starts in a revealing June 15, 2007 interview with Jeff Albert. Price ranked fairly high in terms of PAP, Which is a term Baseball Prospectus devised to represent Pitcher Abuse Points. Obviously, PAP is still a hot-button topic in baseball. It’s intriguing to note that Joe Maddon seemingly subscribes to the Dusty Baker philosophy. One ostensible reason the Mets traded Scott Kazmir is that management believed he was too fragile to endure the rigors of an entire season. Mets fans couldn’t care less, as the deal currently still ranks among the worst of the past decade if not all time. But given his struggles this year, it raises legitimate concerns.

Don’t downgrade Price significantly, but monitor him closely. Because the Price might not be right.