Buy Low … Sell High
Apr 9th, 2008 by Tyler Norton
After a week or so we know a few things…. First, there are a lot of great young players. Second, the best team on paper is the worst team in reality, and third (and most importantly) it’s time to start ripping off your league-mates in trades. Here is a brief list of buy low, sell high guys. There are more out there. I’m sure you can figure them out when you press sort by year to date and find guys on there like Nate McLouth, and Chris B Young who are not on this list.
Buy Low (self-explanatory)
Matt Kemp - The one clear thing his slow start has showed us is that LA will not give up on him in favor of Pierre. Which is best for the Dodgers, and for your team. If the manager with him is slightly panicking, go get him. If your league has keepers he has even higher value, but it is Ethier (who, by the way, is not off to a bad start himself) who is in danger of losing innings, not Kemp.
Johnny Damon - Slow start for a guy who has been relatively consistent over the years. The Yanks still have a great lineup, and Damon is a part of it for ‘08. He should not be held in higher regard than Kemp by any stretch, but his start is clearly not what he will end up with.
JJ Hardy - Possible sophomore slump candidate. He won’t produce the incredible numbers of last year’s start (15 HR in the first 2 months), but he is sure not to have .150 and no homers for long. He is only 25, and not suite ready to have me commit to 30+ homers. Another young guy that can perhaps be snagged quickly for less than he is worth.
Placido Polanco - Pretty much all of the Tigers at this point could be in this column. He is going to be easier to get than other Tigers however. He is a career 300 hitter and hasn’t been below 295 in 4 years. There is no power there, and he is a nice LIMA Plan hitter (he won’t hurt you, but won’t be a top tier guy).
The LaRoche(s) - Adam because of his slow start and Andy because he is getting lost in the LA youth hype. Adam’s .125 start is just another buy low opportunity. Andy however has to “compete” with Nomar and started the year on the DL with a minor thumb injury. Nomar is injured, and if they really depended on getting Andy enough ABs to develop they would have him in AAA. Nomar’s injury (and long list of them in his history) points right at LaRoche to start and stay starting when they both return.
Jason Giambi - The Yanks aren’t about to turn to Ensberg (the only other 1b candidate on the roster). Giambi has always been a streaky hitter and now is no different. He went low in most drafts this year so convincing a manager to part with him shouldn’t be too difficult.
Sell High
All of these guys have the same story basically. They are on fire now, and if there is a new owner, or a “less than championship caliber” owner who has some nice talent, float these guys out there and pretend they mean a lot to you. Hey, no one ever said you wouldn’t have to get your hands dirty in this game!
Xavier Nady - He has been a fringe guy for a while now, but you can convince someone he has made the leap for the year. (even if we know better since he is turning 30 this year, not 27)
Mark Reynolds - Nice young guy, some prospect chaser will be all over him early. He won’t keep it up for sure though.
AJ Pierzynski/Jason Kendal - Flip him for a Ruiz/Soto while you still can.
Jeff Keppinger - Nice utility guy, but not a player who will hit 350+ like he is now.
Joe Crede - Josh Fields line last year…. .244, 23 HRs, 67 RBI (373 ABs) That’s right, 23 HR in 373 ABs. Crede will cool off, may be dealt, and is not the best 3b in his own organization.
Rick Ankiel - Trendy pick, trendy name, easy sell with the start he is having.
Splitsville soon, leave your requests!
Matt Kemp’s issue is that his management is not playing him every day. In shallow leagues, you need your players every day. Maybe, Eithier should be losing ABs instead of Kemp, but with Jones and Pierre also “full-time players”, Kemp (and the others) will continue to lose ABs with double switches, and the like.
I agree with you in principle on Mark Reynolds. He is not going to lead the NL in HRs. 3B is so deep, you do not need Mark Reynolds and given the Arizona OF and corners (Young, Upton, Byrnes, Jackson, Tracy), it is not clear that he will have a full-time job all year. Nonetheless, the Bill James projection for Reynolds is 26 HR/490 AB, .900+ OPS, and some of us targeted him before the start of the year. Please do not write off Mark Reynolds as a flash in the pan. Yes, I would (and did) drop Kemp for Reynolds.
I agree about Kemp’s issue now. However that will change when he gets out of his rut. He is the second best OF in LAD. (and not that far behind Jones)
And while I agree with Reynolds, people tend to get crazy early about potential. He is a very nice player, I agree. But you could easily sell him as a stud right now with a little stat manipulation and some smooth talking. That’s all I’m saying.
I should learn the art of of stat manipulation and smooth talking. That has never been my strength.
[…] Tyler - It isn’t just April numbers. As rotoauthority.com (Spring Training) pointed out earlier this season, he has shown tremendous strides at the plate from the outset of spring training. He is a lifetime .280 guy, I don’t think .289 is a reach at all for a guy who is still developing at 24. I wrote 2 weeks ago (Buy Low Sell High) that he was a sell high guy, so I do tend to agree that he will not keep it up and he is not in the Braun neighborhood by a long shot. I think we agree on the final verdict here being Reynolds is superior. I just don’t quite see how a guy who hasn’t hit even 10 out since his days in A ball (”the bigs will be less”) is going to hit 12-15 HRs. […]