We are at it again with another installment of PCP, or actually known as Point / Counterpoint. This time Tyler and Jordan debate between Jeff Keppinger and Mark Reynolds, and who will be the better player. Do you think it is an easy call? some of the information presented may change your mind. I will let these two guys take over:

Tyler - Rumors have been circulating that you think Jeff Keppinger is better than Mark Reynolds. I am sending you this to set you straight once and for all. Reynolds is three years younger and will have time to develop into his prime hitting years. Keppinger is 27 already and is just now seeing full time ABs in the bigs. The last time he recorded more than 450 ABs at any level in the course of the season was 5 years ago in his first year of A ball. Sure he has a career average over 300, so does Mark Grudz! You can find average boosters (or offensive LIMA guys as I like to call them) anywhere. He hasn’t had 10 HR a year power since his days in A ball, and he is to slow to be taken seriously on the bags. Reynolds on the other hand is off to a blazing start and has a track record of power, hitting 30 in AA in 2006. His average is not incredible but it is just that…. average. the .280 range is certainly not going to hurt you. Couple that with the fact that he is only 24 and has risen faster than most through the MiLB ranks and I will take him any day over Keppinger.

Jordan - Tyler, I don’t know who’s spreading those rumors like a rash, but I hope it isn’t the same person trash-talking your man-crushes (there’s apparently a cream for that kind of jock itch, btw, available at a discount if you purchase Stat Tracker on Yahoo).

No, I’m not a big Keppinger fan, but nor am I a detractor. Dude’s a great (spark) plug-in. He brings energy, adequate OBP, plate discipline, scrappy table-setting, and admittedly below replacement level power (if you use him as a CI) and speed (as a MI). Keppinger boasts a great contact rate and an eye well over 1 throughout his career. And yes, he can sustain a high average unlike most plug-ins, albeit not around .350. Plus at 27 (shortly 28), he could break out a smidge; just because a guy never got PT doesn’t make him a bad player. His SLG has improved each year, helped by his home park (same was true in AAA when he moved to the hitting-friendlier PCL). Not to mention the positional flexibility that Reynolds now lacks (except inexplicably at TSN).

You probably don’t like ROY Pedroia, but if you get them cheap, that’s all that matters. Hell, betcha wouldn’t consider Boggs, Gwynn, and Carew useful (though okay, at least the latter two ran earlier in their careers). Keppinger’ s not in their august company, I’m just making a point. And btw, his VORP according to BP is higher than Reynolds’. What’s a coupla years anyway (ask Miggy T…)? But nah, not a huge fan. Now play the foil, and you’ll get my Reynolds wrap/rap.

Tyler - First off, I have very few man-crushes. Josh Beckett, Ichiro, and Georges St Pierre (nice win last night). Second, I really hope you did not just throw Jeff Keppinger into the sentence, nay paragraph, as Boggs, Gwynn, and Carew. Honestly, I hope you didn’t even throw him in with Dusty! VORP Take into consideration a great deal of things that many fantasy leagues do not. When you can get into a 5×5 with VORP, BABIP, xERA, HR/9, and LOB% then let me know. If you consider the better team around Reynolds, coupled with he fact that he off to a great start (.293, 5HR, 17RBI, 15R) I’ll take him and his tremendous upside over Keppinger (.319, 2, 10, 10). Reynolds will inherently get more RBI chances batting 5th than Keppinger hitting 2nd. The D’Backs park is better for average hitters than The Great American Ballpark (sure guys tend to put more out in Cincinnati, but that is not really relevant with someone who has 280 ft power).. I guess what I’m trying to say here is, the numbers, the surroundings, the lineup, the conventional and the unconventional thinking point to Reynolds. 25 average points be damned. .280+ will not hurt you.

Jordan - First off, I stated Keppinger wasn’t in the august company of Boggs, Gwynn, Carew. However, he’s in their mold: pure hitter, great eye. They were all derided at some point as mere singles hitters, and aside from a nasty knee injury, his development was retarded because chicks, the Reds’ front office (and apparently you) dig the long ball. If Dunn and company start bopping, you’ll see a ton of runs from Kepp, with 12-15 HRs over an entire season. High Value Over Replacement Player for a replacement player if you plug him at SS/MI… not that VORP drive is the engine for my fantasy Enterprise.

As for Reynolds, I have two words for you: Chris Shelton. Okay, that’s not fair, but it’s a good reminder of why we shouldn’t get our panties in a bunch over April numbers (or last year’s—still not a full season). The power is legit (the home park doesn’t hurt). NOT the average. Luck (ie, injuries) played a factor in both dudes’ promotion. Tracy is returning soon; Reynolds is a defensive liability and in close games with a healthy team you could see him lose ABs in the late innings. Speaking of lousy D, he ain’t Braun. Or even Josh Fields. Those guys bring speed in addition to genuine mashing. Then there’s that ugly K rate: 129 Ks in 366 ABs last year, and he never showed a good eye in the minors. Yes, this year shows improvement, 17 Ks in 62 ABs, and the nice spike in walks bodes well. But only 2 doubles in 62 ABs suggests we’re seeing his power ceiling. This is still the dude who set the 9 straight strikeout streak record. His abysmal contact rate is offset only so much by high flyball, HR/F and line drive rates. Nothing suggests your .280+ BA (he hit .280 overall in the minors; the bigs will be less). Dunn territory is doubtful, but .270 over an entire season is likely the best you’ll get. I’d like a more reasonable BABIP and better home/road righty/lefty splits before I anoint him this year’s Carlos Peña. Would I rather have the 24-year old with legit power as a keeper? Sure! But I’d also sell high if you’ve got solid 3B/CI options.

Tyler - It isn’t just April numbers. As rotoauthority.com (Spring Training) pointed out earlier this season, he has shown tremendous strides at the plate from the outset of spring training. He is a lifetime .280 guy, I don’t think .289 is a reach at all for a guy who is still developing at 24. I wrote 2 weeks ago (Buy Low Sell High) that he was a sell high guy, so I do tend to agree that he will not keep it up and he is not in the Braun neighborhood by a long shot. I think we agree on the final verdict here being Reynolds is superior. I just don’t quite see how a guy who hasn’t hit even 10 out since his days in A ball (”the bigs will be less”) is going to hit 12-15 HRs.

Jordan - We do ultimately agree. And considering Keppinger has 12 HRs in 493 major league ABs (only part with the Reds, including 2 this year), consistent PT should translate to 12-15 HRs over 550 ABs. Now we should leave Kelly alone so he can watch his Phils against the Mets.

My Phillies did indeed hold on to beat the Mets, thankfully!