I believe an underreported aspect of Carlos Gomez’s move from the Mets to the Twins is there are few places better for a speedy leadoff hitter to land. Artificial turf is very kind to these type of players, while the pure singles hitting speedsters are not frequent in Twins history, the 1980s Cardinals and Royals got great value out of them. Otis Nixon enjoyed a career high in OBP his only full season in Toronto.

The most popular red flag on Gomez is a fear that he will struggle to get on base. I believe this has been overstated. His home turf plays heavily in his favor, and if he can raise his ground ball/fly ball ratio (currently 1.11) he can at least slow the inevitable decline in his BABIP (currently .437). Discarding stops with under 100 plate appearances in the minor leagues, Gomez never failed to hit under .275. His OBP in AA and AAA were .350 and .363. To put that into perspective, in 2007 four teams had OBP of over .350, the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Rockies. To compare him to some similar players, in Michael Bourn’s last two minor league seasons his AVG was .268 and .277. His OBP was .348 and .356. Willy Tavares had a career OBP of .355 in the minors, and has only shown a decline to .337 in the majors.

If you looked at the computer projections on Gomez, you were probably scared off. The numbers are ugly, but all were made with the assumption that he would get under 400 at bats. The trait that influenced the projections, lack of plate discipline, exists, but should not depress his figures to the degree that ZiPS, for example, thought (.241 AVG, .299 OBP).

If Gomez is on your team you likely could bench him and still have a serviceable lineup. Even if you miss out on some of his steals, he can give you great value in that category, perhaps winning a few head to head weeks by himself. As discussed, expect more success at home than away. There is already a sizeable difference in his limited big league career. Another factor to watch is the pitching matchup. Classifying pitchers as power, neutral, and finesse, Gomez hits .246, .292, .200. It’s a very small sample size, but supports the idea that breaking balls do give him trouble, as well as high strikeout pitchers. Contact rate is worth watching here. In the minors it was just under 81%, so far this year it is about 75%. Ideally, it settles around 82-84%.

Its not really simple to label Gomez as a “sell high” or “hold” on the basis of his hot start. If you own him, you probably needed the help in steals. He fills an important stat that you won’t get back in a trade. If you have plenty of speed, and only picked him up to sell him off, now is a great time to do so. For now, I’m playing the matchups and watching the strikeout rate, but I won’t be in a hurry to move him until at least June.