Ranking of Waiver Wire Players
Apr 30th, 2008 by winabango
We are back today with another question from a reader of the site. Keep these types of questions coming. I would rather write about what you want to hear. Nathan wrote to me the other day and asked the following question:
How would you rank the following waiver wire outfielders: Milton Bradley, Moises Alou, Jeremy Herminda, Mike Cameron, JD Drew, Garrett Anderson, and Bill Hall?
Here are my thoughts on each player, and how I rank them:
- Jeremy Hermida, FLA - Hermida is by far the best overall fantasy player in the group listed, and he also has the most upside. However, I am a bit concerned that he has not attempted to steal a base since returning from his hamstring injury. The majority of his value revolves around his ability to post a 20/20 season. With that being said, his upside makes him the best choice for the rest of the year.
- Mike Cameron, MIL - Along the same lines as Hermida, Cameron can produce double-digit steals and homeruns. However, unlike Hermida, he has no upside at this point in his career. Producing a 15/15 season the rest of the way is reasonable, but at the cost of a batting average below .250? I would rather have Hermida’s upside, but Cameron would be a nice stopgap if needed.
- JD Drew, BOS - I thought that Drew would have a solid season this year, but his inconsistency is killing those thoughts. His batting average of .273 is about as good as it is going to get. A .333 BABIP, as compared to a career .322 BABIP, indicates that his average may even come down a bit more. His greatest assets are the Boston lineup and hitter friendly Fenway Park.
- Garrett Anderson, LAA - This is a case of what you see is what you get. The only thing that Anderson can definitely improve is his batting average. A .253 BABIP has suppressed his batting average, and a 5.6% HR/FB rate has suppressed his HR totals. So he should hit a better rate, but how long until he gets injured again. I think Anderson is a nice add when he is hot, but that is about it at this point in his career.
- Milton Bradley, TEX - Although Bradley is the hottest of the ones listed, I personally do not think he can keep up the pace. His batting average is inflated by a BABIP of .383. If you normalize his BABIP to his career .317 level, his batting average drops all the way down to .266. Any other player that has only 2 homeruns and a .266 batting average would be left on the wire for some other fool to pick him up.
- Bill Hall, MIL - Multiple position eligibility is Hall’s best feature in deep leagues. However, that is about it. His 27.7% strikeout rate is alarming, and a 25% HR/FB is unsustainable. If you normalize the HR/FB rate to the league average of 11%, his batting average drops to an astounding .192. Even if you level out his low BABIP (.230) to .300, his batting average is still only .240, which is a little better than his current .223.
- Moises Alou NYM - Talk about injuries… Alou was set to possibly come back this week, but I guess that is not happening. If he comes back, I would rank him ahead of JD Drew, but until then, I am leaving him at the bottom. Besides, Ryan Church and Endy Chavez are not doing that bad of a job playing everyday.
Those are my thoughts on this group of players. Do you have any other players that you would like for me, or any of the other writers, to analyze? Just send us an e-mail with the list of players.
