This is a straightforward stats piece focusing on some apparent contradictions in the numbers. I’ll offer some brief conclusions/explanations on each player, let me know if you agree, and if you like the categories I chose to look at. All stats are through Friday May 2.

Batters: Low Batting Average for Balls in Play (BABIP) with a high Line Drive Percentage (LD%) :
Carlos Beltran (.246, 25.4%) – So don’t worry about the .204 batting average
Nick Johnson (.226, 26.9%) – His average will go up too, as long as he can stay on the field
Stephen Drew (.260, 25.6%) – Has not produced great numbers yet, but possibly is a cheap replacement for Tulowitzki
Josh Bard (.241, 24.1%) – Again, the average will improve, but he is pretty low on my list for catching options

Batters: High BABIP, low LD%:
Randy Winn (.316, 11.4%) – Hasn’t been really good, and this suggests he’s been lucky. I wouldn’t let his track record stop me from taking a chance on a higher upside outfielder.
AJ Pierzynski (.293, 11.9%) – In the last 15 games he has lost 124 points off his average. We all know who the real AJ is.
Casey Kotchman (.319, 12.4%) - A bit of a surprise here, I would have thought his LD% was higher. I don’t think he keeps up his current pace, but it won’t be a terrible drop off.
Dan Uggla (.297, 13.8%) – He has a career 16% LD rate and a BABIP of .300, so while unusual for most players this is pretty consistent for Uggla.

To show how unlikely it is to sustain these type of ratios, I did a “trial run” for this article a week before and eight players who would have been mentioned no longer qualified.

Pitchers: High ERA, low WHIP:
Johnny Cueto (5.40, 1.09) – He is having major problems with men on base, giving up a 1.152 OPS. Only more starts will tell if this is an anomaly or not.
Scott Baker (4.50, 1.17) – He’s interesting and might be on your waiver wire. Edit: Now a health watch after leaving his start early with groin troubles.
Randy Wolf (3.57, 1.13) – Displays his inconsistency. So far the body of work has been worth the rough games.
Greg Maddux (3.76, 1.12) – Another pitcher who could throw a gem or get shelled at any point.
Brian Bannister (4.04, 1.07) – His last start (3 IP, 7 ER) widened the split.
Andy Sonnanstine (4.42, 1.16) – His strand rate is only 50%

Pitchers: High WHIP, low, ERA:
Fausto Carmona (2.60, 1.73) – His sinker generates lots of double plays, but last year he totaled 3.06/1.20
John Maine (3.48, 1.51) – Hitters are .193 with men on.
Kevin Millwood (3.86, 1.58) – He’s not for real, and his ERA at home is 5.55
Odalis Perez (3.18, 1.34) - .213 with men on, .135 in scoring position.
Dustin McGowan (3.57, 1.50) – Recent command issues have pushed his WHIP up, but keeping opponents’ AVG to .203 with men on has helped. The stuff is there, but he could go either way.
Tim Lincecum (1.73, 1.38) – Nothing you didn’t know, he’s good but not prime Pedro Martinez good.
Jeremy Bonderman (3.86, 1.60) – 5 of 20 runs have been unearned, and he’s walking almost 6 batters per nine. I couldn’t hit the eject button any faster.
Vicente Padilla (3.50, 1.53) – A complete game shutout this early in the year tends to distort things.

Pitchers: High LD%, low BABIP:
Mike Mussina (.268, 26.5%) – He’s had a tough go of it already, what happens if this balances out?
Cole Hamels (.245, 23.1%) – Don’t panic, but an ERA closer to last year (3.39) is more realistic than this year (2.70).
Jair Jurrjens (.245, 22.5%) – Depending on what you can get he could be a sell high, but I think he can pitch the season and not hurt your team.
Greg Maddux (.269, 24.2%) and Chris Young (.254, 25.6%) – Can’t blame it on Petco, the large outfields should make line drives harder to catch if anything. Given the track records, I would not alter expectations based on this data.

Pitchers: Low LD%, high BABIP:
Andy Pettite (.302, 14.2%) – By these numbers, he has been a bit unlucky.
James Shields (.293, 15.1%) – After getting shelled by the Red Sox he is probably near the league average.
Jonathan Sanchez (.304, 15.7%) – Only 33.7 IP, no reason the numbers will not even out.

Again, there was a high turnover in the pitchers that qualified as outliers from only a week ago. My guess is very few players can hold these splits if they play regularly to the All Star break.