Roy Oswalt is another player that is frustrating owners to no end. Most people had him ranked at the bottom of the top tier pitchers, or at the top of the second tier. I know he was selected in the 7th round in the Writers’ league that I am in, and the 9th round of the Gameday League draft. So no one knew quite what to expect this year, but knew that he had a great track record. I don’t think anyone who drafted Oswalt expected a 5.05 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. So is this the true Roy Oswalt? Can you expect a turnaround? Is he a buy low candidate, or a dump for a warm-bodied pitcher?

One of the key stats that I like to look at is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is the expected ERA based on things the pitchers can control. For those stat-heads, the formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2). Some sites simply call it expected ERA (xERA), or component ERA (ERC). So here is how all of them stack up against his ERA:

• ERA - 5.05
• FIP - 4.97
• DIPS - 4.83
• ERC - 5.00

Ok… So he is pitching as bad as his ERA indicates. But the question is why? The first thing that comes to mind is that he has lost velocity, but he is still hitting low 90’s with his fastball. His K/9 is sitting at a very solid 7.58, and is even posting a very solid 3.20 K/BB ratio. So that is not it. His ground ball percentage is at 50.3%, which is solid, and in line with his career average. His Flyball rate is down from last year at a 27.4%. Even his BABIP (.311) is at a normal level. So he is striking out more than three batters for every walk, getting 50% of the batters to hit ground balls, and he has not been unlucky with the balls put in play.

So what is your problem, Mr. Oswalt?

How about a ridiculous 24.5 HR/FB percentage. Of the 49 fly balls he has allowed, 12 have gone for homeruns. That will not only inflate your ERA in a hurry, but it will also cause your FIP to be high as well. A “normal” HR/FB rate is usually around 12%. Hopefully you can follow my thinking… If you get his HR/FB ratio down to 12%, he would have only allowed 6 homeruns instead of 12. Even if they are RBI hits, which keeps his ERA the same, his FIP drops to a more reasonable 3.72.

It is hard to imagine that the number of homeruns will greatly affect ERA, but I guess it can to some extent. There is no way of telling whether or not his mechanics are off, or if he has made good pitches that were still hit out of the park. So I would think that Roy Oswalt is a moderate buy low candidate since he and Brett Myers are the only starting pitchers with HR/FB rates above 20%. In fact, only 16 pitchers have HR/FB rates above 13%.

So I would classify him as a buy low pitcher that has an excellent track record. Will he be as good as he was 2-3 years ago? I don’t think so, but if you can get him at a cheap price he should be worth the gamble.